Performance of the Indian summer monsoon 2020 in NCEP‑GFS

• Autorzy: Raju, Pemmani Venkata Subba , Kulkarni, Akshay , Karadan, Muhammed Muhshif , Wang, Dongxiao
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The rainfall observed 957.6 mm during summer monsoon season (June–September) of 2020 over India, which is 9% more than the climatological mean summer monsoon rainfall. In this study, the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) features are evaluated with National Center for Environment Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS). The 1200 UTC operational analysis and forecast fields (up to 5 days) with 0.5° horizontal resolution and 64 vertical levels are archived for the period of 1st May up to 30th September 2020. The ISM characteristics such as the low-level westerly jet at 850 hPa throughout the monsoon season, reaching the maximum intensity (> 18 m sec^-1) on the Somalian coast and upper-level tropical easterly jet at 150 hPa (> 30 m sec^-1) are well reflected in the NCEP analysis during summer monsoon season. The NCEP model reveals that the ISM features are reasonably well predicted in day 1 forecast, whereas in day 3 and day 5 forecasts it exhibited certain biased tendencies with respect to NCEP analysis. The spatial distribution of observed rainfall was in good agreement with the day 1, day 3, and day 5 forecasts; however, the intensity was overestimated over central India when compared to India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations. The heavy rainfall events (> 64.5 mm as per the criteria of IMD) were realistically captured in the day 1 forecast in terms of spatial distribution and intensity, but the model has limitations to capture intensity and distribution on day 3 and day 5 forecasts.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Indian summer monsoon; NCEP analysis and forecast; westerly jet; tropical easterly jet

• Czasopismo: Acta Geophysica
• Rocznik: 2023
• Tom: Vol. 71, no. 3
• Strony: 1321--1334
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 36 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Raju, Pemmani Venkata Subba

• Centre for Ocean Atmospheric Science and Technology, Amity University Rajasthan, Kant Kalwar, Jaipur, India,

autor

Kulkarni, Akshay

• Centre for Ocean Atmospheric Science and Technology, Amity University Rajasthan, Kant Kalwar, Jaipur, India

autor

Karadan, Muhammed Muhshif

• Centre for Ocean Atmospheric Science and Technology, Amity University Rajasthan, Kant Kalwar, Jaipur, India

autor

Wang, Dongxiao

• South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 164 West Xingang Road, Guangzhou, China

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MEiN, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2024).

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-022-01014-z