Model predikce výsledků voleb – alternativní přístup k odhadům volebních výsledků ve volebních obvodech

• Autorzy: Kostelecky T.

Warianty tytułu

EN

A MODEL FOR PREDICTING ELECTION RESULTS - AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH TO ESTIMATING ELECTION RESULTS IN ELECTORAL DISTRICTS

• Języki publikacji: CS

Abstrakty

EN

To provide reliable pre-election forecasts it is necessary to estimate the election results as precisely as possible in individual electoral districts. Such estimates are traditionally based on a series of pre-election surveys in the individual electoral districts. The article presents an alternative method of making pre-election estimates, which combines the results of national representative surveys and information on the spatial distribution of party support from the previous election, and the results of the model-based estimates are compared with traditional survey-based estimates. The article demonstrates the usefulness of the model-based approach and discusses the conditions that either support or impede the quality of model-based estimates.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

ELECTIONS (PRE-ELECTION ESTIMATES)

• Wydawca: Institute of Sociology, Czech Academy of Sciences
• Czasopismo: Sociologický časopis. Czech Sociological Review
• Rocznik: 2005
• Tom: 41
• Numer: 1
• Strony: 79-101
• Rodzaj publikacji: ARTICLE

Twórcy

autor

Kostelecky T.

• T. Kostelecky, Sociologický ústav AV CR, Jilská 1, 110 00 Praha 1, Czech Republic

Identyfikatory

CEJSH db identifier

07CZAAAA03096356