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EN
Located within a basin structure, at the conjunction of North East Anatolian, North Anatolian and Ovacik Faults, Erzincan city center (Turkey) is one of the most hazardous regions in the world. Combination of the seismotectonic and geological settings of the region has resulted in series of significant seismic activities including the 1939 (Ms~7.8) as well as the 1992 (Mw = 6.6) earthquakes. The devastative 1939 earthquake occurred in the pre-instrumental era in the region with no available local seismograms. Thus, a limited number of studies exist on that earthquake. However, the 1992 event, despite the sparse local network at that time, has been studied extensively. This study aims to simulate the 1939 Erzincan earthquake using available regional seismic and geological parameters. Despite several uncertainties involved, such an effort to quantitatively model the 1939 earthquake is promising, given the historical reports of extensive damage and fatalities in the area. The results of this study are expressed in terms of anticipated acceleration time histories at certain locations, spatial distribution of selected ground motion parameters and felt intensity maps in the region. Simulated motions are first compared against empirical ground motion prediction equations derived with both local and global datasets. Next, anticipated intensity maps of the 1939 earthquake are obtained using local correlations between peak ground motion parameters and felt intensity values. Comparisons of the estimated intensity distributions with the corresponding observed intensities indicate a reasonable modeling of the 1939 earthquake.
EN
In this study, stochastic earthquake catalog of the Erzincan region in Turkey is generated based on synthetic ground motions. Monte Carlo simulation method is used to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of events. Ground motion time histories are generated using stochastic simulation methodology. Annual exceedance rate of each ground motion amplitude is calculated through statistical distribution of the complete set of ground motions. The results are compared with classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Classical PSHA generally produces larger spectral amplitudes than the proposed study due to wide range of aleatory variability. The effects of near-field forward directivity and detailed site response are also investigated on the results.
EN
Ground motion prediction equations are essential for several purposes ranging from seismic design and analysis to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. In seismically active regions without sufficiently strong ground motion data to build empirical models, hybrid models become vital. Georgia does not have sufficiently strong ground motion data to build empirical models. In this study, we have applied the host-totarget method in two regions in Georgia with different source mechanisms. According to the tectonic regime of the target areas, two different regions are chosen as host regions. One of them is in Turkey with the dominant strike-slip source mechanism, while the other is in Iran with the prevalence of reverse-mechanism events. We performed stochastic finite-fault simulations in both host and target areas and employed the hybrid-empirical method as introduced in Campbell (2003). An initial set of hybrid empirical ground motion estimates is obtained for PGA and SA at selected periods for Georgia.
EN
El-Fayoum New City represents one of the new urban settlements that are recently erected all over Egypt. Because seismic recordings are not available, I used the stochastic method to simulate the largest damaging earthquake from the closest seismic source to the proposed area of the city. To verify the method and its computed results in Egypt, a study termed “method verification” was performed. I found that the October 12, 1992, earthquake (M b = 5.8) that occurred southwest of Cairo in the vicinity of the Dahshour region, at the coordinates 29.77°N, 31.07°E, is a significant earthquake to the city. The parameters of the path from the hypocenter of the event to the city were taken into consideration. To determine the site parameters, a shallow seismic refraction survey was carried out in the studied area. Accordingly, I simulated time-histories and pseudo-spectral accelerations from the October 12, 1992, earthquake at the location of seismic profiles. Finally, it is demonstrated that the site is characterized by high ground motion amplification factors, producing a high ground motion acceleration value.
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