Purpose: identification of effective mechanisms of organizational adaptation under high uncertainty in light of the assumptions of the complexity theory. Design/methodology/approach: The approach adopted involves literature review, including an interdisciplinary ground of complexity theory. Findings: The content of the article includes the conceptualization of patterns as schemata at the level of an organization, recognition of the relationship between schemata and organizational routines as an area subject to shaping, and identification of the dynamics of routines depending on the degrees of uncertainty. Research limitations/implications: The results of the study are presented in the form of theoretical framework enabling further testing. Originality/value: Conceptualization of the contextual nature of routines depending on the degree of uncertainty as a mechanism of change and stability in the organization.
Purpose: The main goal of this article is to present the dropship model to consider it’s advantages and disadvantages and find out, is it accurate way to develop business in short time under some uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach: Most important problems and critical success factors of dropshipping model, and then assessing their mutual influence on each other were discussed. Costs that a start-up company running it’s business must incur were analyzed. In order to convince what kind of effects the online store may expect, simulations of requirements and costs on dropshipping platforms were conducted. Findings: Dropshipping business model is quite risky and should not be treated as a panacea in times of crisis. Online stores, if they think about significant profits, must focus on finding their niche, building responsive websites and rely on a solid information system. Originality/value: Simulation of costs of dropshipping business model under some uncertainty can be really helpful to start-up company running it’s business.
The multi-channel temperature measurement system developed works with NTC thermistors. The article presents the results of theoretical and empirical evaluation of accuracy obtained in measurement channels. The basis for the theoretical assessment is the mathematical model for each of the measurement channels and the characteristics of the system elements included in the circuits of the measurement channel. Two different methods were used to theoretically estimate the accuracy: the Gauss Formula and the Monte Carlo method. The empirical assessment of accuracy is supported by measurement data collected during the calibration procedures for the device developed and the results of verification measurements performed on a working device. The exemplary results presented of the accuracy assessment, obtained in the selected channel, are representative of the properties of all other measurement channels. The results of both methods of assessing accuracy in measurement channels are very similar, which confirms the assumptions regarding the implementation of the instrument developed and its good metrological properties.
W pracy przedstawiono propozycję metody wyznaczania parametrów i pasma niepewności funkcji nieliniowej dopasowanej do zmierzonych danych punktów badanych. By ją zlinearyzować trzeba dokonać zamiany jednej lub obu zmiennych określonej funkcji nieliniowej. Następnie metodą regresji liniowej dobrano najkorzystniejsze parametry linii prostej dopasowanej do wartości współrzędnych punktów wg ważonego ogólnego kryterium średniokwadratowego WTLS. Uwzględnia się też współczynniki autokorelacji i korelacji wzajemnej oraz niepewności obu współrzędnych oszacowane na podstawie przewodnika GUM. Z parametrów otrzymanej linii prostej i jej pasma niepewności wynikają poszukiwane parametry funkcji nieliniowej oraz jej pasmo niepewności. Podano przykłady liczbowe wyznaczania parametrów i pasma niepewności dwiema metodami dla jednej z gałęzi paraboli drugiego stopnia oraz dla złożonej funkcji wykładniczej.
EN
The paper presents a method of determining parameters and uncertainty bands of a specific non-linear function fitted to given measured data of examined points. One or both of the variables of this non-linear function are changed so as to linearize it. Using the linear regression method, fined are the most favorable parameters of this straight line for its adjustment to the measured values of the coordinates of points tested according to the weighted total mean square WTLS criterion. Their autocorrelation and cross-correlation coefficients as well as uncertainties estimated according to the rules of the GUM guide are considered. The parameters and the uncertainty band of the non-linear function result from the parameters of this straight line and its uncertainty band. Numerical examples of determining the parameters and uncertainty bands for the branch of a 2nd degree parabola (two methods) and for the complex exponential function are given.
This paper aims to determine the effect of global economic policy uncertainty on the banking system's stability in Asian countries. The dependent variable in the study is measured through the bank's payment risk Zscore. The primary explanatory factor is global economic policy uncertainty, and other control variables include the banking system's characteristics and the national economic environment. Asian banking systems’ data are collected from World Bank between 2008 and 2020. Based on the System Generalized Method of Moments, the main results indicate that global economic policy uncertainty is seriously exacerbating the instability of the banking system of Asian countries. The study also shows that the ability to use mobilized capital and the degree of concentration of the system reduces the adverse impact of global economic policy uncertainty on the stability of the banking system in Asian countries.
PL
Celem niniejszego artykułu jest określenie wpływu niepewności globalnej polityki gospodarczej na stabilność systemu bankowego w krajach azjatyckich. Zmienna zależna w badaniu jest mierzona za pomocą wskaźnika Zscore ryzyka płatniczego banku. Głównym czynnikiem objaśniającym jest niepewność globalnej polityki gospodarczej, a inne zmienne kontrolne obejmują charakterystykę systemu bankowego i krajowe środowisko gospodarcze. Dane dotyczące azjatyckich systemów bankowych pochodzą z Banku Światowego w latach 2008-2020. W oparciu o system uogólnionej metody momentów, główne wyniki wskazują, że niepewność globalnej polityki gospodarczej poważnie pogarsza niestabilność systemu bankowego krajów azjatyckich. Badanie pokazuje również, że zdolność do wykorzystania zmobilizowanego kapitału i stopień koncentracji systemu zmniejsza niekorzystny wpływ niepewności globalnej polityki gospodarczej na stabilność systemu bankowego w krajach azjatyckich.
TOPSIS is a well-known approach applied to multi-criteria decision-making under certainty (M-DMC). However, recently, some analogies between this domain and scenario-based one-criterion decision-making under uncertainty (1-DMU) have been revealed in the literature. Thus, the similarities aforementioned give the possibility to adjust TOPSIS to another area. The goal of the paper is to create a new method for problems with non-deterministic parameters on the basis of TOPSIS ideas. In the suggested approach criteria weights (declared within TOPSIS) are replaced by subjective chances of occurrence which are estimated for each scenario. The novel method has an advantage over existing classical decision rules designed for 1-criterion decision-making under uncertainty since within this procedure each payoff connected with a given option is compared with the positive and negative-ideal solutions.
The paper presents an evaluation with the Type A and B methods for standard uncertainties of coefficients of a polynomial function of order 𝑘 determined by 𝑛 points obtained by measurement of input and output quantities. A method for deriving a posteriori distributions of function coefficients based on the transformation of estimator distributions without assuming any a priori distributions is presented. It was emphasized that since the correct values of the standard uncertainty of type A depend on the √(n-k-3) and not on the √(n-k-1), therefore, with a small number of measurement points, the use of the classical approach leads to a significant underestimation of uncertainty. The relationships for direct evaluation with the type B method of uncertainties caused by uncorrected systematic additive (offset error) and multiplicative (gain error) effects in the measurements of both input and output quantities are derived. These standard uncertainties are determined on the basis of the manufacturers’ declared values of the maximum permissible errors of the measuring instruments used. A Monte Carlo experiment was carried out to verify the uncertainties of the coefficients and quadratic function, the results of which fully confirmed the results obtained analytically.
Słowo "ryzyko" w języku polskim ma zdecydowanie pejoratywny wydźwięk. Odruchowo zaczynamy myśleć o negatywnych stronach rzeczywistości, zastanawiać się nad tym, co mogło się wydarzyć nie tak, jak powinno. Skojarzenia takie nie są dziwne, zwłaszcza, gdy sięgnąć po Słownik języka polskiego - można tam znaleźć dokładnie taką definicję ryzyka: "możliwość, że coś się nie uda; też: przedsięwzięcie, którego wynik jest niepewny". Czy tak jest jednak naprawdę? I jaki związek ryzyko ma z pracą w laboratorium.
EN
The word "risk" in Polish has a definitely pejorative connotation. We instinctively start to think about the negative sides of reality, to consider what could have gone wrong. Such associations are not strange, especially when you reach for the Dictionary of the Polish Language - you can find there exactly such a definition of risk: the possibility that something will go wrong; also: an undertaking whose outcome is uncertain. But is it really so? And what does risk have to do with working in a laboratory?
W pracy opisano obowiązujące podejście do określania niepewności wyników analiz jakościowych. Przedstawiono podane w literaturze metody określania obszaru niewiarygodności odpowiedzi binarnej. Opracowanie zawiera również przykłady badań jakościowych stosowanych w laboratoriach budowlanych, wraz z podejściem autora do niepewności tych oznaczeń.
EN
The paper describes the current approach to determining the uncertainty of qualitative analysis results. The methods given in the literature for determining the area of unreliability of a binary response are presented. The study also includes examples of qualitative examinations used in construction laboratories along with the approach of autor to the uncertainty of these examinations.
Risk, as an effect of uncertainty, is associated with every human activity. Like any other industry, construction companies are eager to reduce the uncertainty of reluctant events. A well-planned risk communication system could contribute to the success of a construction project. A proper announcement protocol could be a mitigating lever for identified or unidentified risks during planning and monitoring processes. This research aims to present a risk communication management system (RCMS) for construction companies involved in large projects. The proposed model includes a step-by-step communication procedure considering the authority level within the organisational hierarchical structure. The model aims to remove the ambiguity of risk communications during the construction process under uncertain conditions. It leaves no or little room for the emergence of unplanned risks. The proposed communication structure has been implemented in GRC cladding construction projects, and the risk communication time and response have been significantly improved.
This paper proposes the usage of the fuzzy rule-based Bayesian algorithm to determine which residential appliances can be considered for the Demand Response program. In contrast with other related studies, this research recognizes both randomness and fuzziness in appliance usage. Moreover, the input data for usage prediction consists of nodal price values (which represent the actual power system conditions), appliance operation time, and time of day. The case study of residential power consumer behavior modeling was implemented to show the functionality of the proposed methodology. The results of applying the suggested algorithm are presented as colored 3D control surfaces. In addition, the performance of the model was verified using R squared coefficient and root mean square error. The conducted studies show that the proposed approach can be used to predict when the selected appliances can be used under specific circumstances. Research of this type may be useful for evaluation of the demand response programs and support residential load forecasting.
Current situation with the fleet of transport and technological machinery in Ukraine requires an individual approach to evaluating the effectiveness of its maintenance and repair system. The article is devoted to the issue of selecting the most effective option for the use of transport and technological machinery taking into account the specific conditions of its operation characterized by certain risks and uncertainties, and considering the real volumes and age structure of the fleet. Solving this problem requires substantiation of management models of maintenance and repair processes. It is necessary to provide scientifically based methods of managing the system of technical maintenance (TM) and repair of transport and technological machinery (RTTM) using specific methods of an individual approach to the technical and economic evaluation of the effectiveness of maintenance and RTTM processes which are adapted to the modern conditions of its operation. The article presents the results of the research, which was carried out using the basics of system analysis, the theory of decision-making under the conditions of uncertainty, and the basics of multi-criteria analysis. In the course of research, an analytical management model of the maintenance and repair system operation was formed that reveals the sequence of implementing the management methodology, which makes it possible to assess its state in successive discrete states, to promptly take into account the effect of external influencing factors and make corrections, which, in turn, allow increasing the validity of strategic decisions aimed at increasing the effectiveness. A numerical calculation was performed, which allowed us to conclude that the value of maintenance intervals has a significant impact on the indicator of effectiveness. Adjusting this value makes it possible to optimize maintenance and repair processes.
The methodology and research results presented in the article indicate the practical possibility of conducting optimization of construction project management course. The goal of the achievement leads to the rationalization of the management of investment tasks, in which there are a series of uncertain parameterized events. The goal was achieved through many years of the author’s own research, which was personally carried out on several hundred construction projects according to original methodology for assessing and forecasting the characteristic parameters of construction investments (cost and time) in conditions of uncertainty: from determinism, through probability and randomness, to fuzziness. The presented and documented achievement stands for accomplishment in project management of construction projects, where decision-making with an increasing degree of uncertainty takes place and requires the course of investment tasks that will be implemented in the future to be forecasted. In the conducted research and conclusions it was proven that construction processes should be considered as phenomena with random events and various degrees of uncertainty, to which methodology with developed modelling parameters should be used.
PL
Metodyka i wyniki badań zaprezentowane w artykule wskazują na praktyczną możliwość optymalizacji kosztowej przebiegu przedsięwzięć budowlanych. Cel osiągnięcia prowadzi do racjonalizacji zarządzania zadań inwestycyjnych, w których występują sparametryzowane przeze mnie serie zdarzeń niepewnych. Cel został osiągnięty na drodze kilkunastoletnich badań własnych, które są prowadzone na kilkuset obiektach i budowach według autorskiej metodyki oceny i prognozy ich charakterystycznych parametrów (koszt i czas) w warunkach niepewności: od determinizmu, poprzez probabilistykę i przypadkowość, aż do rozmytości. Zarządzanie przedsięwzięciami budowlanymi i podejmowanie decyzji zarządczych następuje w rosnącym stopniu niepewności i wymaga prognozowania przebiegu zadań inwestycyjnych, które zostaną zrealizowane w przyszłości. W prezentowanych badaniach udowodniono, że procesy budowalne powinny być rozważane jako zjawiska ze zdarzeniami losowymi o różnym stopniu niepewności, do których stosować metodykę o zbliżonych parametrach modelowania.
Purpose: The aim of the article is a Viewpoint based on the General Review of the state of knowledge regarding current trends in project management, taking into account the high volatility of the environment and the increasing complexity of social and technological systems. Design/methodology/approach: The article presents a narrative review of the literature and refers to the results of the author's own research. Findings: With the increasing volatility of the environment and the increasing complexity of social and technological systems, the importance of using hybrid project management and the process approach to management in organisations will increase. Practical implications: Nowadays, a vast majority of organisations manage projects in a traditional way. Observations contained in the article will contribute to the potential attention of decision-makers and the implementation of new management methods in organisations. Social implications: Projects are not only inscribed in the activities of the organisation but also their results affect the quality of life of the population. By improving the efficiency of project management activities, it is possible to significantly affect the quality of people's lives. Originality/value: The article presents the significance of hybrid project management and the process approach in turbulent times of complexity of social and technological systems in a systematic and review way.
Kolejny rok zazwyczaj traktuje się jako nowe otwarcie i zawsze niesie to ze sobą mnóstwo pytań, nadziei i wątpliwości. Każda branża, każde przedsiębiorstwo i każdy z nas zastanawia się, podsumowuje miniony rok i zadaje sobie pytanie, czy będzie lepiej. Ostatnie dwa lata były dla przemysłu sporym wyzwaniem, co głównie wynikało z sytuacji epidemiologicznej na całym świecie. Wirus Covid-19 wprowadził sporo zamieszania na światowym rynku i przyczynił się do zachwiania gospodarki. Mimo to, wszystkie gałęzie przemysłu mocno walczyły o przetrwanie tego trudnego okresu. Jednym udało się to z większym sukcesem, a innym już nieco gorzej. Jednak wysiłki ponoszone przez poszczególne branże przyniosły jakiś efekt. Jak podaje Krajowa Izba Gospodarcza (KIG), biorąc pod uwagę wskaźniki makroekonomiczne widać, że mimo trudnej sytuacji rok 2021 okazał się lepszy niż pierwszy rok pandemii, czyli 2020. Dane o produkcji, eksporcie czy sprzedaży za ostatni okres są dość pomyślne, a PKB w 2021 r. – według szacunków KIG – wzrósł o 5,7%. Czy to oznacza sukces i radość przedsiębiorców? Niestety, nie do końca. Owszem, taka informacja jest pozytywna, należy jednak zachować racjonalne myślenie, bo pandemia nadal trwa, a wirus Covid-19 nie powiedział jeszcze ostatniego słowa. Przedsiębiorcy doskonale zdają sobie z tego sprawę.
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From the point of view of the probabilistic model, measurement is described as a selection from sample set (set of elementary events). In the framework of fuzzy variable approach the possibility measure describes the degree of adjustment of the standards to the object being measured. On the other side fuzzy approach is better than probabilistic to describe the measurement process. To comply with the GUM recommendations, a transformation of probability to possibility is proposed, in which expanded uncertainty is maintained. In this way, both types of uncertainties are determined within one fuzzy model.
PL
Z punktu widzenia modelu probabilistycznego pomiar opisujemy jako losowanie ze zbioru zdarzeń elementarnych. Pomiar w języku zbiorów rozmytych można opisać jako proces dopasowania do mierzonego obiektu odpowiedniego wzorca. Miarą jakości dopasowania jest stopień zgodności tego dopasowania. W celu stworzenia modelu zgodnego z rekomendacją Przewodnika Wyrażania Niepewności Pomiaru proponujemy transformację rozkładu prawdopodobieństwa na funkcję przynależności zbioru rozmytego zachowującą niepewność typu A. W ten sposób oba rodzaje niepewności opisuje się jednym modelem z miarą rozmytą.
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Przedstawiona w artykule koncepcja modelowania procesu pomiaru bazuje na definicji błędu wywodzącej się z analizy pomiaru przy użyciu wzorca o strukturze kwantowej. Definicja jest podstawą tworzenia modelu pojedynczego wyniku pomiaru umożliwiającego wyznaczanie przedziału reprezentującego menzurand po wykonaniu jego pomiaru. Przedział ten uzyskiwany jest przez złożenie wyniku pomiaru i przedziału niepewności.
EN
A conception of measurement process modeling based on an error definition which comes from analysis of a measurement performed with using a standard with a quantum structure is presented in the paper. The definition is a base of creation of a single measurement result model which enables determination of an interval representing a measurand after its measuring. The interval is building by composition of a measurement result and an uncertainty interval.
Praca kontynuuje cykl publikacji o szacowaniu metodą regresji liniowej parametrów równania i granic pasma niepewności linii prostej y = ax + b dopasowanej do wyników pomiarów obu współrzędnych punktów badanych. Rozpatrzono przypadek ogólny, gdy współrzędne te mają różne niepewności i występują wszystkie możliwe autokorelacje i korelacje wzajemne. Zastosowano opis równaniami macierzowymi. Wyniki pomiarów współrzędnych przedstawiono jako elementy wektorów w X i Y. Propagację niepewności opisano macierzą kowariancji UZ o czterech macierzach składowych, tj. UX i UY - dla niepewności i autokorelacji zmiennych X i Y oraz UXY i jej transpozycja UTXY - dla korelacji wzajemnych. Podano równanie linii prostej i granice jej pasma niepewności. Otrzymane je dla funkcji parametrów a i b spełniającej tzw. kryterium totalne WTLS, tj. minimum sumy kwadratów odległości punktów od prostej ważonych przez odwrotności niepewności współrzędnych. Przy nieskorelowaniu współrzędnych różnych punktów stosuje się uproszczone kryterium WLS. Kierunki rzutowania punktów wnikają z minimalizacji funkcji opisującej kryterium. W przypadku ogólnym istnieje tylko rozwiązanie numeryczne. Zilustrowano to przykładem. Parametry a i b linii prostej wyznaczono numerycznie z powiększonych fragmentów wykresu funkcji kryterialnej wokół jej minimum. Podano też warunki wymagane dla niepewności i korelacji współrzędnych punktów, które umożliwiają uzyskanie rozwiązania analitycznego i jego przykład.
EN
The work continues the series of publications on the estimation of the parameters of the equation and the limits of the uncertainty band of the straight-line y = ax + b fitted to the measurement results of both coordinates of the tested points with the use of the linear regression method. A general case was considered when these coordinates have different uncertainties and there are all possible autocorrelations and cross-correlations. Description of matrix equations was used. The results of the coordinate measurements are presented as elements of the X and Y vectors. The propagation of their uncertainty was described by the UZ covariance matrix with four component matrices, i.e., UX and UY - for the uncertainties and autocorrelations of X and of Y, and UXY and its transposition UTXY - for the cross-correlations. The equation of a straight line and of the borders of its uncertainty band are given. Obtained them for the function of parameters a and b satisfying the so-called total criterion WTLS, i.e., the minimum sum of squared distances of points from the straight line weighted by the reciprocal of the coordinate uncertainty. When the coordinates of different points are not correlated, the simplified criterion WLS is used. The directions of projecting the points result from the minimization of the function describing the criterion. In the general case, there is only a numerical solution. This is illustrated by an example, in which the parameters a and b of the straight line were determined numerically from the enlarged fragments of the graph of the criterion function around its minimum. The conditions for the uncertainty and correlation of coordinates of points required to obtain an analytical solution and its example are also given.
Within the frame of CTO’s standard procedure, a propeller open-water test is preceded by a reference measurement, which is taken for a reference propeller model (P356). The results of these measurements are assembled to conduct an open-water test uncertainty analysis. Additional material was gathered from open-water tests that were conducted throughout several research projects on the CP469 model, which is a model of the Nawigator XXI propeller. The latter is a controllable pitch propeller; its pitch was reset before each test repetition. Known procedures for the determination of the open-water test uncertainty do not allow one to extract the manufacture impact directly, without building many models. This factor was addressed with the use of lifting surface calculations. Under certain additional assumptions, these calculations were performed for 100 generic versions of each propeller’s geometry, which were generated by random deviations from the theoretical data within the limits of allowed tolerances. The results of the conducted analyses made it possible to extract separate factors, which were connected to the test’s repeatability, measurement bias and geometry tolerance.
Decision-making is a tedious and complex process. In the present competitive scenario, any incorrect decision may excessively harm an organization. Therefore, the parameters involved in the decision-making process should be looked into carefully as they may not always be of a deterministic nature. In the present study, a multiobjective nonlinear transportation problem is formulated, wherein the parameters involved in the objective functions are assumed to be fuzzy and both supply and demand are stochastic. Supply and demand are assumed to follow the exponential distribution. After converting the problem into an equivalent deterministic form, the multiobjective problem is solved using a neutrosophic compromise programming approach. A comparative study indicates that the proposed approach provides the best compromise solution, which is significantly better than the one obtained using the fuzzy programming approach.
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