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Stress and dislocation field evolution and prediction problems of numerically simulated events

Teisseyre R., Yamashita T.

Acta Geophysica Polonica

2000

Vol. 48, nr 1

43-56

Numerical simulations of the dislocation density evolution exhibit some perturbations which may be identified as seismic events. The influences of tidal stresses and random disturbances related to the material heterogeneities are analyzed. In relation to this analysis some problems of earthquake prediction and earthquake precursors are discussed. Occurrences of seismic events are very sensitive to small disturbances, while the great disturbances in tidal influence or in material properties cause the disappearance of the events.