Wyniki wyszukiwania - BazTech

1

Diagnostics of electric drive electric vehicle with valve motor

Borodenko Yuriy, Arhun Shchasiana, Hnatov Andrii, Kunicina Nadezhda, Bisenieks Martins, Migal Vasiliy, Hnatova Hanna

Przegląd Elektrotechniczny

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2023

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R. 99, nr 6

32--38

EN

The reliability, safety and economy of the electric vehicle depend on the operation of the electric drive. Diagnosing malfunctions at startup avoid an accident by turning off the system power. Idle testing prevents an accident that may occur while driving. Monitoring the technical states of the electric power supply during the transport process provides an emergency operation mode by redistributing power between its elements. This model presents the results of testing the method of spectral analysis of electrical processes occurring in the power circuit of the electric power supply simulation model. The information content of spectrograms, as a characteristic of the diagnostic parameter, is determined by the options for setting up the FFT analyzer. These options are configured to a maximum frequency switching converter. And other is the sampling period of the spectral characteristic, and the fundamental frequency is selected as multiples of the rotation speed of the electric motor and the switching frequency of the inverter, taking into account the number of phases of the machine. This paper deals with faulty states of electric drive. It is associated with the failure of a functional element, the circuit (breakage or closure) or the deviation of the element parameters from the nominal values. In the first case, the structural identification problem, the system's state, is considered the second - parametric.

PL

Od działania napędu elektrycznego zależy niezawodność, bezpieczeństwo i ekonomia pojazdu elektrycznego. Diagnozowanie usterek podczas uruchamiania pozwala uniknąć wypadku, wyłączając zasilanie systemu. Testy na biegu jałowym zapobiegają wypadkom, które mogą wystąpić podczas jazdy. Monitorowanie stanów technicznych zasilania elektrycznego podczas procesu transportu zapewnia awaryjny tryb pracy poprzez redystrybucję mocy pomiędzy jej elementy. Model ten przedstawia wyniki badań metody analizy spektralnej procesów elektrycznych zachodzących w obwodzie mocy modelu symulacyjnego zasilania elektrycznego. Zawartość informacyjna spektrogramów, jako cecha parametru diagnostycznego, jest określona przez opcje konfiguracji analizatora FFT. Opcje te są skonfigurowane do maksymalnej przetwornicy częstotliwości przełączania. Drugim jest okres próbkowania charakterystyki spektralnej, a częstotliwość podstawowa jest wybierana jako wielokrotność prędkości obrotowej silnika elektrycznego i częstotliwości przełączania falownika z uwzględnieniem liczby faz maszyny. Artykuł dotyczy stanów wadliwych napędu elektrycznego. Jest to związane z uszkodzeniem elementu funkcjonalnego, obwodu (przerwanie lub zamknięcie) lub odchyleniem parametrów elementu od wartości nominalnych. W pierwszym przypadku problem identyfikacji strukturalnej, stan systemu, jest uważany za drugi - parametryczny.

2

Analysis of the country’s energy efficiency using ODEX indicators

Sowiński Janusz

Przegląd Elektrotechniczny

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2023

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R. 99, nr 6

154--157

EN

One of the priority tasks in the country's energy economy is the improvement of energy efficiency. Sectoral energy consumption indicators enable the monitoring of the country's energy economy. The analysis of sectoral ODEX indicators is essential for predicting energy savings. The courses of the ODEX indicators and energy efficiency indicators were modeled with stochastic differential equations. Solving the equations using the Euler method enables the simulation of curves in the medium-term horizon. The results of simulation were presented.

PL

Jednym z priorytetowych zadań w gospodarce energetycznej kraju jest poprawa efektywności energetycznej. Sektorowe wskaźniki zużycia energii umożliwiają monitorowanie gospodarki energetycznej kraju. Analiza sektorowych wskaźników ODEX jest niezbędna do prognozowania oszczędności energii. Przebiegi wskaźników ODEX i wskaźników sektorowych efektywności modelowano stochastycznymi równaniami różniczkowymi. Rozwiązanie równań metodą Eulera umożliwia symulację krzywych w horyzoncie średniookresowym. Przedstawiono wyniki symulacji.

3

Use of the digital twin concept to optimize the production process of engine blocks manufacturing

Sujová Erika, Bambura Roman, Vysloužilová Daniela, Koleda Peter

Production Engineering Archives

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2023

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Vol. 29, Iss. 2

168--174

EN

The aim of the paper is to present the concept of a digital twin (DT) as part of the Industry 4.0 strategy. In the form of a case study, a digital twin of a production line for the processing of engine blocks is presented, which will serve as a starting point for further research in the field of digitization of production processes. The research part describes the simulation model of the production line with the representation of the material flow as a basis for the creation of a digital twin. The simulation model was used to optimize the production processes of the engine block and to verify the increase in its productivity. A case study implemented through a digital twin enables testing and analysis of changes before they are introduced into real production.

4

Krajowy model ciężarowego transportu drogowego na podstawie wyników badań TD-E

Naumov Vitalii, Szarata Andrzej, Vasiutina Hanna

Transport Miejski i Regionalny

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2022

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nr 5

3--9

PL

Modele symulacyjne systemów transportowych są kluczowym narzędziem do rozwiązywania wielu zagadnień z zakresu zarządzania tymi systemami. Metodologie tworzenia tych modeli wykorzystują zestawy danych zarówno o infrastrukturze transportowej, jak i o popycie na dostawę towarów lub przewozy pasażerów, jednak w tym zakresie wiele czynników uwzględniano na podstawie przypuszczeń z powodu złożoności modelowanych obiektów. W niniejszym artykule opisano podejście do modelowania systemu przewozów towarowych transportem drogowym w skali całej Polski, w oparciu o dane uzyskiwane przez Główny Urząd Statystyczny na podstawie badania TD-E. Takie podejście pozwala uniknąć wielu przypuszczeń dotyczących popytu na przewozy towarowe, ponieważ parametry tego popytu są oszacowywane w oparciu o próbkę reprezentującą populację generalną – zbiór wszystkich podmiotów gospodarczych kraju generujących ruch towarowy. Podstawowe procedury w opracowanym podejściu do modelowania systemu transportu towarowego zaimplementowano w postaci skryptów w języku Python. W wyniku wykorzystania proponowanej metodologii uzyskano model ciężarowego transportu drogowego w skali całego kraju na podstawie danych badania TD-E z roku 2018. Ocenę adekwatności opracowanego modelu przeprowadzono w oparciu o wyniki Generalnego Pomiaru Ruchu z roku 2015 na podstawie współczynnika determinacji jako miary jakości. Uzyskany model charakteryzuje się zadowalającą jakością (wartość współczynnika determinacji wyniosła 0.62), która może być poprawiona po kalibracji funkcji oporu przestrzeni oraz udoskonalenia procedury rozkładu ruchu na sieć drogową.

EN

Simulation models of transport systems are a key tool for addressing many issues in the field of management of these systems. The methodologies for creating such models use data sets on both transport infrastructure and demand for the freights or passenger transport, however, many factors are considered based on assumptions due to the complexity. This article describes the approach to modeling the cargo transportation system for road transport in Poland based on data obtained by the Central Statistical Office from the TD-E survey. This approach avoids many assumptions about the demand as the demand parameters are estimated based on a sample representing the general population – a set of all economic entities generating freight traffic. Basic procedures in the developed approach have been implemented as Python scripts. As a result of the use of the proposed methodology, a country-wide road transport model was obtained based on the TD-E survey from 2018. The adequacy of the developed model was assessed based on the results of the General Traffic Survey from 2015. The obtained model is of satisfactory quality (the coefficient of determination equals 0.62), which can be improved after calibrating the space resistance functions and improving the traffic distribution procedure.

5

Development of a Model of Current Distribution in the Overhead Contact Lines for an Innovative de-Icing System

Skrzyniarz Marek, Kruczek Włodzimierz, Mike Kamil, Stypułkowski Piotr

Problemy Kolejnictwa

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2022

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Z. 195

135--139

EN

Icing on the overhead contact line exclude the possibility of efficient current collection from the overhead contact line. The effects oficing can result in losses for carriers due to delay or cancellation of trains and also cases of damage to the traction infrastructure and pantographs. Th e existing methods of de-icing the traction network (mechanical, chemical and electrical) are currently ineffective. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a new electrical method that takes into account the detailed current flow in the overhead contact line. This article presents a model for calculating the current flow in the overhead contact line and the resistances of droppers, suspension elements, and distance holders measured on the basis of actual measurements.

6

A Quick-and-Dirty Method for assessing the Risk of Negative Aeration Effects of Shock Absorbers equipped with Shim Sliding Base Valves

Czop Piotr, Gniłka Jacek

Computer Assisted Methods in Engineering and Science

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2022

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Vol. 29, no. 3

229--260

EN

This paper presents a quick-and-dirty method to assess the risk of negative aeration effects occurring in twin-tube hydraulic shock absorbers used in passenger cars at the early design stage. The method is intended to be implemented as an engineering calculation tool based on the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) two-dimensional (2D)/three-dimensional (3D) steady-state single-phase model. The CFD model was previously validated with the use of the particle image velocimetry (PIV) experiment. The negative aeration effect is a wellknown issue for automotive and railway shock absorbers manufacturers. It results in uncontrolled on-vehicle vibrations and the deteriorated shock absorber damping characteristic. The major aeration contributor in twin-tube hydraulic shock absorbers is the sliding shim intake valve, which requires design optimization to avoid a negative aeration effect. The method validation was conducted with the customized test rig equipped with a transparent cylinder where the specific sliding intake valve was assembled. The proposed method also requires a lumped-parameter model of a twin-tube shock absorber, which allows to simulate boundary conditions in assessing particular reservoirs of a shock absorber, i.e., pressures and flow balance. The method is implemented as a calculation routine that converts CFD pressure regions into a gas concentration indicator (GCI) using the pressure-density characteristic of an oil-gas emulsion of a shock absorber. GCI is calculated based on the sum of particular 2D/3D grid elements. The method application is to minimize the risk of occurrence of negative aeration effects by avoiding expensive and time-consuming experimental tests. This method can also be used for in-production shock absorbers projects as a part of a continuous improvement cycle or in the case of inefficient shock absorbers claimed by a vehicle manufacturer. The application scope of the method can be extended for arbitrary twin-tube designs of shock absorbers in the automotive and railway industries.

7

Model of operational planning of freight transportation by tram as part of a green logistics system

Shramenko Natalya, Merkisz-Guranowska Agnieszka, Kiciński Marcin, Shramenko Vladyslav

Archives of Transport

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2022

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Vol. 63, iss. 3

113--122

EN

The introduction of environmentally friendly technologies is becoming increasingly necessary to combat global warming and air pollution in cities. The concept of ecologistics is seen as an effective approach to the management of materials and related flows in order to reduce environmental and economic damage to the environment. The sustainable development of green supply chains is based on the use of environmentally friendly types of vehicles, reduction of energy and other resources consumption, optimization of transport and technological processes in delivery systems. As part of the development of green supply chain, it is proposed to transport goods by freight trams, which eliminates the need for heavy trucks in the city, improves traffic conditions and reduces the environmental impact of transport. The research was conducted for the city of Poznan. The distribution system of the city of Poznan operates in conditions of stochastic demand for deliveries from clients and the risk of lack of sufficient supplies in distribution centers. To take into account the specificity of the distribution system of cargo delivery in conditions of uncertainty and risk, a simulation model of the organization of the material flows within the transport system of the city of Poznan has been proposed. The result of simulation is the optimal assignment of clients to the distribution centers, as well as the value of total mileage with the load, which is a random variable. It is assumed that the random variable is distributed according to the normal distribution law. The results were calculated and compared for two variants, i.e. for constant demand and sufficient quantity of cargo in distribution centers, and for variable demand and uncertainty conditions, e.g. insufficient cargo quantity in distribution centers. The purpose of the paper is to develop a simulation model for planning supplies of small consignments of goods by trams implementing green logistics concept with variable demand for transportation. After a short introduction of the problem, the literature review related to the concept of green logistics and requirements of transport and distribution system are presented in section 2. In section 3, the research problem and research methodology are described. Section 4 provides the results of assignment of clients to distribution centers. The paper ends with concluding remarks.

8

Simulation and Optimization of Saw Blade Production in Plant Simulation

Malega Peter, Daneshjo Naqib, Rudy Vladimír, Rehák Róbert

Advances in Science and Technology. Research Journal

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2022

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Vol. 16, no 3

67--77

EN

This paper is oriented on very important topics, which nowadays simulation and optimization surely are. First part of this paper is oriented on simulation software Plant Simulation, because this software is one of the best software on the market. Second section deals in detail with the procedure of saw blades production. Third section presents creation of simulation model for selected production process, which is production of saw blades. Final fourth section is about proposals for improvement of saw blade production.

9

Modelling and simulation of functioning of the GSh-23 aviation autocannon mechanisms

Jasztal Michał, Kunikowski Mateusz

Technical Sciences / University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn

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2021

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nr 24(1)

211--220

EN

Article presents the simulation model and the study of the basic mechanisms of the GSh-23 aviation autocannon. The research made use of Solid Edge ST9 software and the multibody systems method implemented in it. Simulation of functioning cannon mechanisms was carried out for two variants of forcing a piston mechanism movement by the gunpowder gases. The results obtained are time courses of a bolt and a cartridge belt drive mechanism elements movement. Assumed variants of a piston mechanism movement and elaborated simulation model will be verified in the next (planned) stage of studies basing on the results of the measurements of the experimental kinematic parameters utilising high-speed camera (Phantom) and TEMA software.

10

Elektryczna lokomotywa akumulatorowa „Electra” ze zmiennym rozstawem kół

Lasek Paweł, Setlak Rafał, Zieleźny Wojciech, Kupczak Szymon

Napędy i Sterowanie

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2021

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R. 23, nr 12

68--72

EN

The following paper presents a simulation model of a electric battery locomotive dedicated for mining. The mathematical models of a rail vehicle has been shown, with a analytical models describing an electric motor drive train, including battery system, traction and rolling losses. A set of key data for design and validation has been obtained in a simple drive cycle.

11

Experimental and numerical analysis of 3D printed cement mortar specimens using inkjet 3DP

Shakor Pshtiwan, Gowripalan Nadarajah, Rasouli Habib

Archives of Civil and Mechanical Engineering

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2021

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Vol. 21, no. 2

287--302

EN

Investigations involving the experimental and numerical analysis of inkjet (powder-based) 3DP are relatively limited for cement mortar materials. This study, by using cement mortar specimens, aimed to determine the optimum strength of 3D printed structural members in all three planes by identifying the compressive strength of cubes, the modulus of elasticity and Poisson’s ratio. In addition, this study aimed to analyse and verify the numerical model for 3D printed cementitious mortar (CP) prisms and beams using an inkjet 3D printer by considering the mechanical behaviour of the printed prisms under compression. Robust and optimal mechanical properties of the 3D printed cementitious mortar obtained from laboratory testing were utilised in the simulation of structural components using ABAQUS software. As inputs for simulation, the strength properties of the printed objects in all three cartesian planes were obtained from test results. The obtained results showed that the printed cementitious materials have orthotropic properties and that the results of experiments were consistent with the analytical solutions and hypothesised model for the different geometric shapes. This finding is extremely valuable in determining the optimum features of 3D printed structures.

12

Application of a fuzzy controller in the process of automated polyethylene film thickness control

Jardzioch Andrzej, Marczak Wioletta

Applied Computer Science

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2021

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Vol. 17, no 3

31--46

EN

The present article aims to describe the design of a fuzzy controller used for automated control of the thickness of the extruded polyethylene film effected by the adjustment of the actuator in the cooling ring. In order to determine whether the designed controller operates properly, a model extruder was created and a simulation study was carried out. The Simulink programming environment integrated with Matlab was used for the development of the fuzzy controller and the simulation. The conducted simulation study demonstrated that the implementation of the designed controller would enable the adjustment of thickness on the perimeter of the film tube and quick reaction to possible departure in the assumed film thickness in mass production.

13

Tilt test of a pallet load unit – simulation studies

Matyja Tomasz

Zeszyty Naukowe. Transport / Politechnika Śląska

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2020

|

z. 107

107--117

EN

This paper presents a dynamic model of a palletised load unit during a static tilt test. The stability (also called rigidity) of a load unit was evaluated. The palletised load unit was built of packages forming layers and protected against disintegration by stretch film. The aim of this study was to compare the results of a static tilt test with a commonly used and recommended dynamic acceleration test.

14

Optimization of the duration of emergency vehicle movement to the place of fire

Pasnak Ivan, Renkas Artur

Transport Problems

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2020

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T. 15, z. 4, cz. 1

117--124

EN

The article is devoted to the issue of the negative effect of delays in the movement of special rescue vehicles on the effectiveness of their mission. The dependence of the area of fire on the delay of the arrival of firefighters using a fire-rescue vehicle is shown. The cascading graph of route options of special vehicle movement to the place of an emergency call is given. The algorithm of the optimal route choice of the special vehicle motion with given projected delays is offered. Based on the graph theory, probability theory, and the basic principles of traffic organization, the article proposes a new way to determine the optimal route.

15

Traffic simulation at unsignalized intersection in case of congestion on major street caused by an adjacent traffic sign

Gasz Krzysztof

Roads and Bridges - Drogi i Mosty

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2020

|

Vol. 19, no. 3

211--224

EN

Unsignalized intersections belong to the most common ways of traffic management at intersections. The capacity of the minor entries depends on many factors. One of them is the traffic flow pattern on the major street. In the case of slow-moving queue of vehicles on the main street caused by a downstream traffic signal, the capacity of movements on the minor street joining the queue of vehicles on the main street is significantly reduced. The surveys of traffic parameters were performed in three Polish cities: Wroclaw, Opole, and Krakow. On the basis of these studies, a simulation model representing the traffic conditions at such an intersection was developed. The influence of pedestrian traffic and the number of storage spaces in the median on the possibility of vehicles from the minor entries joining the queue of vehicles on the main street was examined.

PL

Skrzyżowania bez sygnalizacji są jednym z najczęściej występujących sposobów organizacji ruchu na skrzyżowaniach. Przepustowość wlotów podporządkowanych uzależniona jest od wielu czynników. Jednym z nich jest sposób poruszania się pojazdów na jezdni głównej. W przypadku obecności poruszającej się powoli kolejki pojazdów spowodowanej przez oddziaływanie skrzyżowania z sygnalizacją, przepustowość relacji włączających się do kolejki z wlotów podporządkowanych jest znacznie ograniczona. Pomiary parametrów ruchu przeprowadzono w trzech miastach: Wrocławiu, Opolu i Krakowie. Na podstawie badań opracowano model symulacyjny odzwierciedlający warunki ruchu na skrzyżowaniu takiego typu. Przeanalizowano wpływ ruchu pieszego oraz pojemności powierzchni akumulacji w pasie rozdziału ulicy głównej na przepustowość pojazdów z wlotów podporządkowanych dołączających się do kolejki na jezdni głównej

16

Box selectivity in different container cargo-handling systems

Kuznetsov A. L., Kirichenko A. L., Semenov A. D.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

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2019

|

Vol. 13. no. 4

797--801

EN

The box selectivity in operational stack of container terminal is a quite common and long studied question. The pure random choice is governed by the theory of probability offering some combinatorial estimations. The introduction of operational rules like import/export separation, storage by shipping lines, sorting by rail or truck transportation etc., as well as the most notorious ‘sinking’ effect, i.e. covering of boxes arrived earlier by next cargo parties – all these blur the clear algebraiс picture and lead to appearance of many heuristic outlooks of the problem. A new impetus to this problem in last decades was given by the rapid development of IT, AI and simulation techniques. There are quite many examples of the models described in the scientific publication reflecting many real and arbitrary terminals, which embed very advanced and complicated mechanisms reflecting selected features and strategies. Unfortunately, these models usually are created ad hoc, with some pragmatic objectives and under the demand of closest possible proximity to the simulating objects. There are much less models designated to pure scientific study of the deep inner mechanisms responsible for the primal behavior of the operating container stack, enabling to introduce step by step new rules and restrictions, providing regular proving of every next stage’s adequacy and easy to use. This paper describes one attempt of this kind to create a new theoretical tool to put into the regular toolkit of the container terminal designer. The study starts with mathematical (combinatorial) considerations, proceeds with some restrictions caused by physical and technological characteristics, and ends up with the simulation model, which adequacy is confirmed by practical results.

17

Design and test of simulation model of the controller of electromechanical tap-changers for hv/mv transformer

Korpikiewicz Jarosław, Mohamed-Seghir Mostefa

Scientific Journal of Gdynia Maritime University

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2019

|

nr 109

30--46

EN

At present, the simulation model of the electromechanical tap changer controller is not generally available. It is necessary in order to carry out tests of the voltage regulation system in the Main Supply Point (MSP). It is a lower voltage regulation system. The article presents simulation models of the tap changer controller working in a HV/MV station. The construction of all subsystems of the model is presented. Various methods of implementation of current compensation were also considered. The subsystems of the model and the whole have been simulated.

18

Simulation for jewelry production process improvement using line balancing: A case study

Supsomboon Srisawat

Management Systems in Production Engineering

|

2019

|

nr 3 (27)

127--137

EN

Thai jewelry is the world’s leading jewelry which has gained high reputation and recognition from customers worldwide. In the past decade, jewelry have become one of the top ten export product of Thailand with the current export value of around 58,000 million baht per year which is 3.4 percent of all Thailand export products. Due to the high competition in the world market, however, Thai jewelry manufacturers needs to continue to improve their product quality as well as process efficiency in order to gain more market share. Currently, computer-aided tools have become more powerful tool in jewelry production management. They have been used to design production process, plant and workstation layout, production planning, worker’s scheduling, and other decisive decision making in both high management and shop floor levels. This research demonstrates a case study of plant simulation application for jewelry production process improvement. The objective is to reduce bottlenecks and increase productivity in wax pattern and casting processes using line balancing. Various scenarios have been proposed in order to support different level of desired output rate due to the increase of demand. The results of line balancing and simulation models reduce bottlenecks. Hence, productivity is increased. The desired throughput rates are achieved with the minimum number of workers and machine in the system.

19

Implementing Monte Carlo simulation model for revenue forecasting under the impact of risk and uncertainty

Hussain Zahid

Management and Production Engineering Review

|

2019

|

Vol. 10, No. 4

81--89

EN

In the existent world of continuous production systems, strong attention has been waged to anonymous risk that probably generates signiﬁcant apprehension. The forecast for net present value is extremely important for any production plant. The objective of this paper is to implement Monte Carlo simulation technique for perceiving the impact of risk and uncertainty in prediction and forecasting company’s proﬁtability. The production unit under study is interested to make the initial investment by installing an additional spray dryer plant. The expressive values acquied from the Monte Carlo technique established a range of certain results. The expected net present value of the cash ﬂow is $14,605, hence the frequency chart outcomes conﬁrmed that there is the highest level of certainty that the company will achieve its target. To forecast the net present value for the next period, the results conﬁrmed that there are 50.73% chances of achieving the outcomes. Considering the minimum and maximum values at 80% certainty level, it was observed that 80% chances exist that expected outcomes will be between $5,830 and $22,587. The model’s sensitivity results validated that cash inﬂows had a greater sensitivity level of 21.1% and the cash inﬂows for the next year as 19.7%. Cumulative frequency distribution conﬁrmed that the probability to achieve a maximum value of $23,520 is 90 % and for the value of $6,244 it is about 10 %. These validations suggested that controlling the expenditures, the company’s outﬂows can also be controlled deﬁnitely.

20

Modele symulacyjne w doskonaleniu procesów logistycznych w systemach zarządzania kryzysowego

Zaskórski Piotr, Ogórek Mieczysław

Gospodarka Materiałowa i Logistyka

|

2019

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nr 5

767--782, CD

PL

Współczesne organizacje funkcjonują w środowisku turbulentnym, które powoduje potrzebę wykorzystywania zaawansowanych technologii, a w tym m.in. systemów symulacyjnych, umożliwiających wcześniejszą ocenę sytuacji przy ustalonych ograniczeniach, jak również wariantowanie i wybór optymalnych rozwiązań. Bardzo duże znaczenie nabiera sprawność procesów logistycznych, które stają się główną determinantą ciągłości działania szczególnie w warunkach zaistnienia kryzysu i potrzeby utrzymania odpowiedniego poziomu bezpieczeństwa w dłuższym horyzoncie czasowym. Modele symulacyjne mogą więc sprzyjać doskonaleniu oraz usuwaniu prognozowanych luk w systemach logistycznych w różnych wymiarach zarządzania kryzysowego.

EN

Modern organizations operate in a turbulent environment that causes the need to use advanced technologies, including simulation systems, allowing for early assessment of the situation at set limits, as well as varianting and selection of optimal solutions. Very important is the efficiency of logistics processes, which become the main determinant of business continuity, especially in the conditions of crisis and the need to maintain an adequate level of security over a longer time horizon. Thus, simulation models can support the improvement and removal of forecast gaps in logistic systems in various dimensions of crisis management.