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PL
Zaproponowano metodę wyznaczania ryzyka podtopień sieci kanalizacyjnych spowodowanych wystąpieniem osadów w kanałach. Podano przyczyny występowania podtopień przewodów kanalizacyjnych. Zamieszczono wyniki badań CCTV wykonanych przez Politechnikę Świętokrzyską, dotyczących występowania osadów kanalizacyjnych w kanałach betonowych, kamionkowych i wykonanych z rur PVC wraz z propozycją ilościowej ich oceny. Ustalono kategorie prawdopodobieństwa podtopień przewodów kanalizacyjnych, kategorie konsekwencji wystąpienia awarii oraz miary ryzyka podtopienia przewodów kanalizacyjnych.
EN
A method of determining the risk of flooding of sewer pipelines caused by the occurrence of deposits in sewers has been proposed. The causes of flooding of sewage pipes were listed. The results of CCTV studies carried out by the Kielce University of Technology on the occurrence of sewer deposits in concrete, vitrified clay and PVC pipes, together with a proposal for their quantitative assessment, are given. Probability categories of flooding of sewer pipelines, categories of failure consequences and the risk of flooding of sewer are determined.
EN
The subject of the research is modeling and analysisof the characteristics of multichannel and multi-node computer networks with priority services. The work is devoted to the study of the qualitative indicators of the functioning of computer networks with priority service.In this work, mathematical modelsare developed that make it possible to assess the quality of functioning of modern computer networks, taking into account thenumber of channels, waiting places in network nodes and the number of network nodes. The proposed methods for calculating the probability of failures andthe probability of timely delivery of a stream of requests make it possible to determine the real values of the qualitative indicators of the functioningof computer networks and are suitable for both designed and operating computer networks. The proposed technique makes it possible to determinethe number of packets in the queue and the optimal amount of buffer memory in computer network nodes.
PL
Przedmiotem badań jest modelowanie i analiza charakterystyk wielokanałowych i wielowęzłowych sieci komputerowych z usługami priorytetowymi. Praca poświęcona jest badaniu jakościowych wskaźników funkcjonowania sieci komputerowych z usługami priorytetowymi. W pracy opracowano modele matematyczne umożliwiające ocenę jakości funkcjonowania nowoczesnych sieci komputerowych z uwzględnieniem liczby kanałów, miejsc oczekiwania w węzłach sieci oraz liczby węzłów sieci. Proponowane metody obliczania prawdopodobieństwa awarii i prawdopodobieństwa terminowego dostarczenia strumienia żądań umożliwiają określenie rzeczywistych wartości wskaźników jakościowych funkcjonowania sieci komputerowych i są odpowiednie zarówno dla projektowanych, jak i działających sieci komputerowych. Proponowana technika umożliwia określenie liczby pakietów w kolejce i optymalnej ilości pamięci buforowej w węzłach sieci komputerowej.
3
EN
The risk of emergencies in power grids may result in the need to repeatedly curtail the power generated from renewable energy sources (RES). The frequency of network emergency states occurring during the year can be determined based on available failure rate statistics. The power redispatch signal (this term means reducing generation in a renewable energy source and correspondingly increasing it in a centrally controlled source) may be issued by the appropriate network operator. The article presents the results of analyses, the aim of which was to assess the probable effects of annual generation reduction in a selected wind and photovoltaic power plant connected at the same grid node. An original method was proposed using Monte Carlo simulation, taking into account the generation technology and its annual distribution, and an external computational "engine" implementing sequences of flow calculations.
PL
Ryzyko wystąpienia stanów awaryjnych w sieciach elektroenergetycznych może spowodować konieczność wielokrotnego ograniczania mocy generowanej w odnawialnych źródłach energii (OZE). Częstość występowania stanów awaryjnych sieci w ciągu roku, można określić na podstawie dostępnych statystyk. Sygnał do redysponowania mocy (termin ten oznacza zmniejszenia generacji w źródle OZE i odpowiednie zwiększenie jej w źródle centralnie sterowanym) może wydać właściwy operator sieci. W artykule przedstawiono wyniki analiz, których celem była ocena prawdopodobnych skutków rocznego ograniczania generacji w wybranej elektrowni wiatrowej i fotowoltaicznej, przyłączonych w tym samym węźle sieci. Zaproponowano oryginalną metodę wykorzystującą symulację Monte Carlo uwzględniającą technologię generacji i jej roczny rozkład oraz zewnętrzny „silnik” obliczeniowy realizujący sekwencje obliczeń rozpływowych.
PL
Ryzyko wystąpienia stanów awaryjnych w sieciach elektroenergetycznych może spowodować konieczność wielokrotnego ograniczania mocy generowanej w odnawialnych źródłach energii (OZE). Częstość występowania stanów awaryjnych sieci w ciągu roku, można określić na podstawie dostępnych statystyk. Sygnał do redysponowania mocy (termin ten oznacza zmniejszenia generacji w źródle OZE i odpowiednie zwiększenie jej w źródle centralnie sterowanym) może wydać właściwy operator sieci. W artykule przedstawiono wyniki analiz, których celem była ocena prawdopodobnych skutków rocznego ograniczania generacji w wybranej elektrowni wiatrowej i fotowoltaicznej, przyłączonych w tym samym węźle sieci. Zaproponowano oryginalną metodę wykorzystującą symulację Monte Carlo uwzględniającą technologię generacji i jej roczny rozkład oraz zewnętrzny „silnik” obliczeniowy realizujący sekwencje obliczeń rozpływowych.
EN
The risk of emergencies in power grids may result in the need to repeatedly curtail the power generated from renewable energy sources (RES). The frequency of network emergency states occurring during the year can be determined based on available failure rate statistics. The power redispatch signal (this term means reducing generation in a renewable energy source and correspondingly increasing it in a centrally controlled source) may be issued by the appropriate network operator. The article presents the results of analyses, the aim of which was to assess the probable effects of annual generation reduction in a selected wind and photovoltaic power plant connected at the same grid node. An original method was proposed using Monte Carlo simulation, taking into account the generation technology and its annual distribution, and an external computational "engine" implementing sequences of flow calculations.
EN
The paper presents a new approach to the evaluation of human factor (HF) influence on the risk of maritime accidents. This approach is based on a formal human–ship–environment system definition including the relationships between humans, technology, environment, and organization. Social and organizational factors have already been included in the International Maritime Organization regulations; however, the individual factors still need investigation. A combination of psychological studies and technical operations of sea-going ships has given a huge opportunity to use HF assessment in rule-making processes. The main scientific goal of the research presented in the paper was the development of a method to assess the influence of HF on the risk of maneuvering accidents in restricted waters. This method is based on research within the area of technical ship operation and the results of the psychological profile of operators. The proposed model is based on a quantitative HF model developed by an authorized psychologist comprising personality traits, vulnerability to stress, and risk approach. The investigations were carried out with a group of 32 experienced ship masters performing a complex maneuvering task on the Full Mission Ship Handling Simulator. The multidimensional dependencies between variables of the psychological profile and the risk of an accident resulting from maneuvering errors were implemented into the Sugeno fuzzy model. The developed model allows risk assessment to be conducted that depends on the selected personality profile features. These features can be measured using psychological questionnaires, and then the risk of an accident due to maneuvering error can be calculated for a captain or marine pilot in order to improve human resource management.
EN
The Youd etal liquefaction resistance curves developed in 2001 to characterize the cyclic resistance of soil based on SPT test are the most used in the context of the Seed and Idriss simplified procedure as a deterministic model. These curves were developed from a modified database of Seed etal. in 1985 with the assumption that the actual peak shear stress (τd) induced at depth h is always less than that predicted by the simplified procedure (τr) of Seed and Idriss (rd= τd/τr<1). By using a suite of equivalent linear site response analyses to adjust the dynamic and the simplified shear stress at depth h, Filali and Sbartai showed in 2017 that the dynamic peak shear stress for some earthquakes is greater than the simplified peak shear stress (rd>1). As in this case, the assumption of the simplified procedure is not verified, Filali and Sbartai have proposed a corrector factor (RC) in the range where rd>1 to adjust the deformable and rigid body. In this paper, we will present a probabilistic study for the evaluation of the liquefaction potential using a database based on SPT measurement compiled after the Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake, in which the cyclic stress ratio is evaluated using the proposed corrector factor. The objective of this study is to present a probabilistic shape of the cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) curves based on the original simplified method of Seed and Idriss and the corrected version and a new formulation for computing the probability of liquefaction.
EN
This study aimed to analyze the available amount of water in the Dragaçina River to meet the different water needs in the Municipality of Suhareka. The water problems in this city are more pronounced, especially in the vegetation period of July–September, where the area is significantly affected by drought. The Dragacina River carries about 10 hm3 of water per year, and affected neither by urbanism nor massive deforestation of the basin. However, there are no multi-year measurements of inflows for this river, whether they are average, maximum or minimum ones. Therefore, the study is based on several multi-annual monthly rainfall measurements and some characteristics of the Dragaçina River Basin. Knowing the average annual flow coefficient η = Peff / Pbruto it is possible to convert these precipitations to Peff [mm] flow and then to monthly flow. The inputs for other years from 1983/84 onwards are obtained by simulating time series. Then, for such inflows, the probability distribution functions of small waters are assigned and the usable volume balance is carried out. Assuming an average annual withdrawal from the reservoir QAmin mes. = 0.63 × Qmes. which should be constant throughout the years, then the length of the critical period will be 0.13 years or approximately 48 days, for PH = 95%. Starting from the initial acquired volume of 1 hm3 it is possible to achieve 95% < PH < 99%. Therefore, it follows from this analysis that this river can provide a significant amount of water for the needs of the Municipality of Suhareka.
EN
This paper deals with multicomponent systems subjected to suddenly applied loads. Such multicomponent systems consist of functionally identical elements, but the elements differ in their ability to sustain the applied load. Specifically, arrays of pillars are an example of the multicomponent systems. The capability of the array to sustain the applied load depends not only on the strength of the pillars but also on how the load coming from failed pillars is redistributed to the intact ones. We employ a Fiber Bundle Model with load transfer restricted within a rectangular region generated dynamically after each pillar’s destruction. We investigate strength of the array and its survivability.
EN
Rammed earth significantly reduces intrinsic energy compared to concrete construction and has an environmental benefit throughout the life cycle of the building: phases of construction, operation, maintenance, renovation, and demolition. Several studies have recently been carried out to study this material. However, the seismic behavior of rammed earth constructions is still an important topic that needs to be studied in more detail. Through the analysis of non-linear behavior of the rammed earth construction for different wall thicknesses according to the Moroccan earthquake regulation RPS2011, we were able to assess the seismic performance under the corresponding conditions (loads, seismic zone). The results show that the walls studied can have good resistance in areas of seismicity ranging from “very low” to “moderate” and acceptable performance in areas of high seismicity. Furthermore, fragility analysis shows that rammed construction with a wall thickness equal to 50 centimeters exhibits better seismic performance and a low probability of damage, particularly in the case of moderate, severe, and complete damage states.
10
Content available remote Vibrations of a low-frequency floor under various pedestrian loading scenarios
EN
Contemporary floor vibration guidelines limit the discussion of walking-induced vibrations to single-pedestrian loading scenario. Nevertheless, the inclusion of more than one pedestrian in the vibration evaluation would result in a more realistic range of floor responses. In this paper, an attempt was made to experimentally and numerically investigate the combined effect of two persons walking simultaneously on an actual building floor. The floor fundamental frequency and damping ratio were obtained from physical heel drop tests and the footfall response was measured in a series of walking tests. A finite element model was created for prediction of floor responses under different walking scenarios. A probabilistic prediction was also performed where random variations in pacing rates, body weights and arrival times of the pedestrians were considered in a large number of Monte Carlo simulations. It was showed that the response due to a single person with resonant step frequency can be greater than that due to two persons walking at off-resonant pacing rates. However, the resonant response induced by two pedestrians can be 1.29-1.38 times greater than that caused by a pedestrian.
11
Content available remote Bernoulli Meets PBFT: Modeling BFT Protocols in the Presence of Dynamic Failures
EN
The publication of the pivotal state machine replication protocol PBFT laid the foundation for a body of BFT protocols. We introduce a probabilistic model for evaluating BFT protocols in the presence of dynamic link and crash failures. The model is derived from the communication pattern, facilitating an adaptation to other protocols. The state of replicas is captured and used to derive the success probability of the protocol execution. To this end, we examine the influence of link and crash failure rates as well as the number of replicas. A comparison in protocol behavior of PBFT, Zyzzyva and SBFT is performed.
EN
The paper deals with the uncertainty of the operated system’s possible states hybrid combined optional functions. Traditionally, the probabilities of the system’s possible states are treated as the reliability measures. However, in the framework of the proposed doctrine, the optimality (for example, the maximal probability of the system’s state) is determined based upon a plausible assumption of the intrinsic objectively existing parameters. The two entropy theory wings consider on one hand the subjective preferences functions in subjective analysis, concerning the multi-alternativeness of the operational situation at an individual’s choice problems, and on the other hand the objectively existing characteristics used in theoretical physics. The discussed in the paper entropy paradigm proceeds with the objectively presented phenomena of the state’s probability and the probability’s maximum. The theoretical speculations and mathematical derivations are illustrated with the necessary plotted diagrams.
PL
Artykuł dotyczy niepewności możliwych stanów eksploatowanego systemu hybrydowych połączonych funkcji opcjonalnych. Tradycyjnie jako miary niezawodności traktuje się prawdopodobieństwa możliwych stanów systemu. Jednak w ramach proponowanej doktryny optymalność (na przykład maksymalne prawdopodobieństwo stanu systemu) jest określana na podstawie wiarygodnego założenia o obiektywnie istniejących parametrach wewnętrznych. Dwa kierunki w teorii entropii uwzględniają z jednej strony subiektywne funkcje preferencji w analizie subiektywnej, dotyczące wielowariantowości sytuacji operacyjnej przy indywidualnych problemach wyboru, a z drugiej strony obiektywnie istniejące cechy stosowane w fizyce teoretycznej. Omawiany w artykule paradygmat entropii kontynuuje obiektywnie przedstawione zjawiska prawdopodobieństwa stanu i maksimum prawdopodobieństwa. Spekulacje teoretyczne i wyprowadzenia matematyczne zilustrowano za pomocą niezbędnych wykresów.
EN
The probabilistic methods of risk predictions, focused on the prognostic modeling of complex systems, and their pragmatic applications are proposed. They are based on an implementation of the proposed interconnected ideas about system analysis in life cycle. The approach includes description of the probabilistic models, optimization methods for rationale actions and incremental algorithms for solving the problems of supporting decisionmaking and rationale preventive actions in uncertainty conditions. A suitability of the proposed models and methods is demonstrated by examples which cover wide reliability and safety applications for some intellectual systems, enterprises of coal company, a floating oil and gas platform, a set of manufacturing processes of gas preparation equipment, the systems of oil&gas transportation and distribution. The approach means practically proactive commitment to excellence in uncertainty conditions.
PL
W pracy poruszono zagadnienie komercjalizacji wynalazków w aspekcie prawdopodobieństwa sukcesu rozumianego jako zysk ze sprzedaży wyprodukowanych towarów. Zaproponowano model procesu komercjalizacji ze wskazaniem punktów decyzyjnych i odniesieniem do skali TRL. Przedstawiono wyniki symulacji procesu komercjalizacji dla pewnych wartości prawdopodobieństwa warunkowego przypisanego punktom decyzyjnym. Jest to autorskie spojrzenie na proces komercjalizacji, jednak nie sprzeczne z innymi występującymi w literaturze przedmiotu.
EN
The paper discusses the issue of commercialization of inventions in terms of the probability of success understood as the profit from the sale of manufactured goods. A model of the commercialization process was proposed with the indication of decision points and reference to the TRL scale. The results of the simulation of the commercialization process are presented for certain values of conditional probability assigned to the decision points. This is the author’s view of the commercialization process, but not contradictory to others presented in the literature.
EN
The article presents the three-state semi-Markov model of the process {W(t): t > 0} of state transitions of a ship power plant machine, with the following interpretation of these states: s1 – state of full serviceability, s2 – state of partial serviceability, and s3 – state of unserviceability. These states are precisely defined for the ship main engine (ME). A hypothesis is proposed which explains the possibility of application of this model to examine models of real state transitions of ship power plant machines. Empirical data concerning ME were used for calculating limiting probabilities for the process {W(t): t > 0}. The applicability of these probabilities in decision making with the assistance of the Bayesian statistical theory is demonstrated. The probabilities were calculated using a procedure included in the computational software MATHEMATICA, taking into consideration the fact that the random variables representing state transition times of the process {W(t): t > 0} have gamma distributions. The usefulness of the Bayesian statistical theory in operational decision-making concerning ship power plants is shown using a decision dendrite which maps ME states and consequences of particular decisions, thus making it possible to choose between the following two decisions: d1 – first perform a relevant preventive service of the engine to restore its state and then perform the commissioned task within the time limit determined by the customer, and d2 – omit the preventive service and start performing the commissioned task.
16
Content available remote Reliability determination of nanoelectronic devices using semi-Marcov processes
EN
The main purpose of the article is to investigate the reliability process of nanoelectronics devices. Firstly, the research problem is presented based on foreign data source. Then, the analytical method has been chosen – semi-Marcov processes. Next, according to the adopted method and input data, the operating process has been analyzed. Finally, the probabilities of objects being in particular operating states, e.g. in the state of failure-free operation have been determined.
PL
W artykule badany jest proces niezawodności urządzeń nanoelektronicznych. Na początku przedstawiono problem badawczy, w oparciu o zagraniczne źródła danych. Następnie dobrano metodę analityczną – procesy półmarkowowskie. W kolejnej części, bazując na przyjętej metodzie i danych wejściowych, przeanalizowano proces eksploatacji, wyznaczając prawdopodobieństwa przebywania obiektów w poszczególnych stanach eksploatacyjnych, np. w stanie bezawaryjnej pracy.
EN
Currently, the Republic of Kazakhstan is developing a new standard for symmetric data encryption. One of the candidates for the role of the standard is the Qamal encryption algorithm developed by the Institute of Information and Computer Technologies (Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan). The article describes the algorithm. Differential properties of the main operations that make up the Qamal cypher are considered in the questions of stability. We have shown that for a version with a 128-bit data block and the same secret key size for three rounds of encryption it is difficult to find the right pairs of texts with a probability of 2–120, which makes differential cryptanalysis not applicable to the Qamal cypher.
PL
Badania – metody, modele i wnioski - przedstawione w artykule zawierają syntetyczne i analityczne rozwiązania modelowe dotyczące problemów technicznego utrzymania i zużycia budynków mieszkalnych o konstrukcji tradycyjnej. Związki przyczynowo - skutkowe pomiędzy występowaniem uszkodzeń elementów kamienic czynszowych, traktowanych jako wyraz warunków ich utrzymania, a wielkością procesu technicznego zużycia tych elementów określono na reprezentatywnej, dobranej w sposób celowy, próbie 102 budynków mieszkalnych wzniesionych w drugiej połowie XIX i na początku XX wieku we wrocławskiej dzielnicy „Śródmieście”. Analiza studialna procesów eksploatacji obiektów mieszkalnych i wykonane w niej przekształcenia podstawowych zależności teorii niezawodności wskazuje, że dla okresu użytkowania obiektu, w którym czas poprawnej pracy do uszkodzenia ma rozkład wykładniczy (jest to w zasadzie okres eksploatacji odpowiadający długości czasu użytkowania rozważanych budynków mieszkalnych), średni pozostały czas bezawaryjnej pracy jest w każdym momencie niezmienny. Teoretycznie więc obiekty mieszkalne po upływie pewnego czasu bezawaryjnej pracy spełniają swoje funkcje tak jak nowe. Wiek elementów starego budynku mieszkalnego ma wtedy drugorzędne znaczenie w procesie intensywności utraty jego wartości użytkowych. Jeżeli przyjąć, że miarą dopasowania testowanych w metodzie regresji nieliniowej modeli matematycznych, jako funkcji zużycia technicznego elementów budynków w czasie, jest współczynnik determinacji, to nie więcej niż 30% zniszczenia elementów jest wyjaśniona upływem czasu. Nie wiek zatem jest czynnikiem determinującym przebieg technicznego zużycia elementów analizowanych budynków.
EN
The paper contains synthetic and analytical test results and model solutions for technical maintenance and wear problems of apartment houses traditionally structured. The crucial methodological aspect of the research is striving to minimize the subjectivity of expert assessment while technical investigation of old buildings. The cause and effect between the occurrence of damage to the elements of the rental houses, treated as an expression of the conditions for their maintenance, and the size of the technical process of wear of these elements was determined on a representative, purpose-appropriate, sample of 102 residential buildings erected in the second half of the 19th and early 20th centuries in downtown Wrocław (Poland) district. Rational maintenance of existing buildings is nowadays significant issue for their proprieties. Therefore, there is constant need to find a research method that may lead to well thought out building maintenance management. The goal of undergone research was to search influence of apartment houses maintenance on the grade and intensity of their deterioration. As to fulfil the research objective the group of engineers identified symptoms of the technical wear growth, which means performed identification of causes and effects responsible for the defects appearance. The range of the work demanded elaboration of a new qualitative model of detected defects and its transfer into a quantitative model. Therefore, such approach enabled to establish the reason - effect connection ‘defect - technical wear’ related to the crucial structural parts of investigated apartment houses.
EN
We present a natural probabilistic variation of the multi-depot vehicle routing problem with pickup and delivery (MDVRPPD). In this paper, we present a variation of this deterministic problem, where each pair of pickup and delivery points are present with some probability, and their realization are only known after the routes are computed. We denote this stochastic version by S-MDVRPPD. One route for each depot must be computed satisfying precedence constraints, where each pickup point must appear before its delivery pair in the route. The objective is to find a solution with minimum expected traveling distance. We present a closed-form expression to compute the expected length of an a priori route under general probabilistic assumptions. To solve the S-MDVRPPD we propose an Iterated Local Search (ILS) that uses the Variable Neighborhood Descent (VND) as local search procedure. The proposed heuristic was compared with a Tabu Search (TS) algorithm based on a previous work. We evaluate the performance of these heuristics on a data set adapted from TSPLIB instances. The results show that the ILS proposed is efficient and effective to solve S-MDVRPPD.
EN
Non-Determinism is the word that is used to refer to an event or a series of the same that is said to be unpredictable but is assumed to be belonging to a domain of possibilities. From the inception, non-deterministic approaches have played a huge role in statistics, machine design, the definition of Random, and a few other domains to mention. Non-Deterministic processes are defined as the paths that lead to no fixed state but a set of possible states instead. One of the crucial reasons would be delving into the human understanding of processes and the ability to justify happenings around. A behavior that has accumulated throughout the evolution of mankind is to explain boundaries based on what is being perceived. The argument of Human Understanding of processes around can be of huge prominence as they play a vital role in explaining and demystifying a lot of misconceptions. One such aspect that is a resultant of this phenomenon would be a nondeterministic approach. The key focus of this paper will be on emphasizing how humans are limited to perceiving reality, how several misconceptions have accumulated around misstated definitions by the virtue of the same, have a closer look at Randomness, a sheer epitome of the same, and also propose a few potential applications that are affected by the hitherto stated problem.
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