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Roundwood production forecasting in Poland, on the basis of the data of the central statistical office in the years 2000 - 2012

Andrushko L.

Information Systems in Management

2016

Vol. 5, No. 3

307--317

The paper presents the results of research on the construction and evaluation of the forecast of the economic phenomenon in the future time period on the example of roundwood production in Poland. The process of building an econometric model as a linear function is illustrated in this paper. The trend function was verified and the convergence coefficient was calculated. The point and the interval forecast was constructed. On the basis of the results of studies the forecast accuracy was evaluated and a number of recommendations were presented. The recommendations regard the use of research results for decision-making and the needs of the material economy.

Prognoza podziałowa sprzedaży nowej marki produktu uwzględniająca nowych nabywców

Mikuś J.

Badania Operacyjne i Decyzje

2000

Nr 2

31-40

W klasie modeli addytywnych wyznaczono rozkład prognozy, rozkład błędu prognozy oraz prognozę przedziałową sprzedaży nowej marki produktu na rynku.

An additive model taking into account in its structure the expected changes in the number of buyers that make the purchase for the first time as well as the influence of random factors is considered. The distribution of the forecast as well as that of errors of the forecast of an increase of new buyers of a certain product on the market is determined. An interval forecast in the class of additive models is determined. The possibility of determining both a point forecast and an interval one of the sales of a new product brand on the market, making use of the cumulative series values, is pointed out.