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Geoinformational prognostic model of mudflows hazard and mudflows risk for the territory of Ukrainian Carpathians

Chepurna T. B., Kuzmenko E. D., Chepurnyj I. V.

Contemporary Trends in Geoscience

2017

Vol. 6, iss. 1

57--69

The article is devoted to the geological issue of the space-time regional prognostication of mudflow hazard. The methodology of space-time prediction of mudflows hazard by creating GIS predictive model has been developed. Using GIS technologies the relevant and representative complex of significant influence of spatial and temporal factors, adjusted to use in the regional prediction of mudflows hazard, were selected. Geological, geomorphological, technological, climatic, and landscape factors have been selected as spatial mudflow factors. Spatial analysis is based on detection of a regular connection of spatial factor characteristics with spatial distribution of the mudflow sites. The function of a standard complex spatial index (SCSI) of the probability of the mudflow sites distribution has been calculated. The temporal, long-term prediction of the mudflows activity was based on the hypothesis of the regular reiteration of natural processes. Heliophysical, seismic, meteorological, and hydrogeological factors have been selected as time mudflow factors. The function of a complex index of long standing mudflow activity (CIMA) has been calculated. The prognostic geoinformational model of mudflow hazard up to 2020 year, a year of the next peak of the mudflows activity, has been created. Mudflow risks have been counted and carogram of mudflow risk assessment within the limits of administrative territorial units has been built for 2020 year.

Geodynamics and forecast of catastrophic landslides and mudflows in the Carpathian region

Rudko H.

Polish Geological Institute Special Papers

2005

Vol. 20

99--103

Research of the mechanisms of the slope processes and their dynamics have been carried out on the basis on the engineering-geological, geophysical and geodetic techniques and modelling methods. The main research methods were not contact methods (air visual, interpretation of photographs), which allowed to estimate a catastrophic situation. As a result of the application of these methods, the regional classification of slope processes has been prepared which has created a basis for the landslides models and their mechanisms. It must be underlined that the character of the geological environment in the studied region was defined by different mutually related parameters (of geological, geomorphological, climatic, landscape, informational and technogenical nature) which caused feature diplacements and processes of catastrophic activation of the slopes.

Badania mechanizmu i dynamiki procesów zboczowych prowadzono metodami geologiczno-inżynierskimi, geofizycznymi, geodezyjnymi oraz z zastosowaniem modelowania. Podstawowe badania prowadzono metodami pośrednimi (obserwacje z powietrza, interpretacja fotografii itp.). Pozwalały one na szybką ocenę sytuacji w przypadku katastrof. W wyniku zastosowania tych metod, wypracowano regionalną klasyfikację procesów zboczowych, co stworzyło podstawy do opracowania modeli mechanizmów osuwiskowych. Stwierdzono, że uwarunkowania badanego środowiska były określone przez różne, powiązane ze sobą parametry, które powodowały katastrofalną aktywację procesów zboczowych. Należą do nich warunki geologiczne, geomorfologiczne, klimatyczne, krajobrazowe, technologiczne itd.