Wyniki wyszukiwania - BazTech

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Towards improving optimised ship weather routing

Vettor Roberto, Szlapczynska Joanna, Szlapczynski Rafal, Tycholiz Wojciech, Soares Carlos Guedes

Polish Maritime Research

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2020

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nr 1

60--69

EN

The aim of the paper is to outline a project focussing on the development of a new type of ship weather routing solution with improved uncertainty handling, through better estimation of ship performance and responses to sea conditions. Ensemble forecasting is considered to take into account the uncertainty levels that are typical of operations in a stochastic environment. Increased accuracy of weather prediction is achieved through the assimilation of real-time data, measured by an on-board monitoring system. The proposed system will allow smooth integration of short-term Decision Support Systems for ship handling in dangerous or peculiar situations with long-term Decision Support Systems for weather routing. An appropriate user interface is also a critical part of the project and it will be implemented in a commercial Electronic Nautical Chart environment. A prototype of the full system will be installed and tested on a commercial vessel in regular operations and under real environmental conditions.

2

Recent sea surface temperature trends and future scenarios for the Red Sea

Shaltout Mohamed

Oceanologia

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2019

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No. 61 (4)

484--504

EN

The current paper analyses the recent trends of Red Sea surface temperature (SST) using 0.25° daily gridded Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) data from 1982 to 2016. The results of 3 different GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) model simulations are used to project the sea surface temperature (hereafter called Tos) under the four representative concentration pathway scenarios through 2100. The current research indicates that the spatially annual mean (from 1982 to 2016) Red Sea surface temperature is 27.88 ± 2.14°C, with a significant warming trend of 0.029°C yr-1. The annual SST variability during the spring/autumn seasons is two times higher than during the winter/summer seasons. The Red Sea surface temperature is correlated with 13 different studied parameters, the most dominant of which are mean sea level pressure, air temperature at 2 m above sea level, cross-coast wind stress, sensible heat flux, and Indian Summer Monsoon Index. For the Red Sea, the GFDL-CM3 simulation was found to produce the most accurate current SST among the studied simulations and was then used to project future scenarios. Analysis of GFDL-CM3 results showed that Tos in the Red Sea will experience significant warming trends with an uncertainty ranging from 0.6°C century-1 to 3.2°C century-1according to the scenario used and the seasonal variation.

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Operational setup of the soil-perturbed, time-lagged Ensemble Prediction System at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute

Duniec G., Interewicz W., Mazur A., Wyszogrodzki A.

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

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2017

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Vol. 5, Iss. 2

43--51

EN

The usage of Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)-based weather forecasts is nowadays becoming very popular and widespread, because ensemble means better represent weather-related risks than a single (deterministic) forecast. Perturbations of the lower boundary state (i.e., layers of soil and the boundary between soil and the lower atmosphere) applied to the governing system are also believed to play an important role at any resolution. As a part of the research project of the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute (IMWM-NRI), a simple and efficient method was proposed to produce a reasonable number of valid ensemble members, taking into consideration predefined soil-related model parameters. Tests, case studies and long-term evaluations confirmed that small perturbations of a selected parameter(s) were sufficient to induce significant changes in the forecast of the state of the atmosphere and to provide qualitative selection of a valid member of the ensemble members. Another important factor that added a significant increment to ensemble spread was the time-lagged approach. All these aspects resulted in the preparation of a well-defined ensemble based on the perturbation of soil-related parameters, and introduced in the COSMO model operational setup at the IMWM-NRI. This system is intended for the use in forecasters’ routine work.