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Syntetyczna ocena bezpieczeństwa narodowego : od diagnozy do prognozy

Sułek M.

Studia Bezpieczeństwa Narodowego

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2011

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R. 1, Nr 2

97--116

PL

W artykule pokazano możliwości prognozowania bezpieczeństwa narodowego pod postacią uporządkowanej metodyki, opierającej się na dwóch zasadniczych filarach. Pierwszy to sprecyzowanie operacyjnej definicji bezpieczeństwa narodowego. Drugi wyraża się syntetycznymi miarami potęgi państw. Operacyjna definicja bezpieczeństwa narodowego zawiera składniki będące przedmiotem prognozowania, przy wykorzystaniu specyficznych metod. Są to: stosunek sił rozpatrywanych stron, wzajemna sprzeczność interesów, skłonność do agresji, skłonność do obrony oraz charakter środowiska międzynarodowego. Takie podejście umożliwia ilościową ocenę jego poziomu oraz prognozowanie ilościowo-jakościowe.

EN

This article shows the possibility of national security forecasting using a specific form of arranged methodology. The one presented is based on two fundamental pillars. The first pillar is the operational definition of national security. The second is based on synthetic measure of nations’ power. The operational definition of national security includes the methodologically defined instruments linked to the subject of forecasting. These would be: the ratio of powers, contradiction of interests, propensity to aggression, propensity to defense and the nature of international environment. Advantage of this approach lies in its exact measurement and a possibility of a quantitative assessment of national security.

2

Diagnostyczna metoda oceny ryzyk i systemów reagowania PomRisc jako narzędzie programowania zmian doskonalących systemy bezpieczeństwa i ich monitorowania

Roguski E. W., Wróblewski D.

Bezpieczeństwo i Technika Pożarnicza

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2008

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Nr 4

35--60

PL

Autorzy w sygnalny sposób przedstawili autorską metodykę PomRisc, która umożliwia diagnozę stanu bezpieczeństwa i systemu ratownictwa oraz wskazanie optymalnych kierunków działań doskonalących. W metodyce wykorzystano wybrane metody i narzędzia analizy ryzyka, zarządzania ryzykiem oraz organizacji i zarządzania, optymalizacji i teorii systemów, które wzbogacono o autorskie narzędzia i metody interpretacji.

EN

In the article authors are signalizing their own methodology PomRisc which allow to diagnosis safety level and rescue system as well as point optimum direction of improve activity. The methodology uses methods and tools of risk analysis, risk management, organization and management, optimization and systems theory. All these methods were enriched by authors’ own tools and methods of interpretation.

3

Concept of implementation of open water model tests for assessment of safety of ships in damaged condition

Gerigk M.

Polish Maritime Research

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2007

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S 2

68--72

EN

The paper presents the preliminary information on the concept of open water model tests for assessment of safety of ships in damaged conditions. The need to develop the concept follows from the fact that the current regulations for assessment of safety of ships in damaged conditions require to consider an influence of many factors coming from different sources. Among the most important factors are those which come from the ship itself and the environment. Of course, the current regulations take into account the impacts which follow from the stages of flooding and progressive flooding but not all the possible impacts are taken into account. The open water model tests may enable to verify the existing regulations and model some phenomena associated with flooding. The open water model tests can be an important alternative method for the assessment of ship safety. The current method and some elements of the new approach to the safety of ships in damaged conditions are briefly described in the paper. A concept of the open water model tests for assessment of the safety of ships in damaged conditions are introduced. Some details regarding the research stand are given. The preliminary programme of investigations is presented as well. Because of the limited space available in the paper more details regarding the concept of open water model tests will be given in the POWER POINT presentation during the Symposium and in the final version of the paper.

4

A performance-oriented risk-based method for assessment of safety of ships. Modelling uncertainties in hazard and risk analysis

Gerigk M.

Journal of KONBiN

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2006

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No. 1

279--286

EN

The paper presents some information on the alternative performance-oriented risk-based method for assessment of safety of ships in damaged conditions. The method can be used for the risk-based design where one between the main design objectives is safety. The assessment of safety is based on the risk assessment. For the risk assessment the Formal Safety Assessment methodology has been applied.