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Method of Serious Traffic Incidents Analysis with the Use of Stochastic Timed Petri Nets

Skorupski J.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2013

Vol. 7, no. 4

599--606

One of the primary sources of information and inspiration in the creation of new, more secure solutions in traffic organization are the occurrences with most serious consequences called accidents (air), serious accidents (rail) or catastrophes (road, sea). Accidents investigation is usually conducted in terms of searching for the reasons of these events and to make preventive recommendations aimed at elimination of these causes. In this paper, it is proposed to draw more attention to the events of somewhat less severity of the consequences - serious incidents (air), traffic conflicts (road) and incidents (rail, maritime). A model of real serious traffic incident, created with the use of stochastic, timed Petri nets is presented. Simulation experiments were carried out, which allowed for determination of the probability of transformation of the incident into the accident. The proposed method of analyzing serious traffic incidents also allows to determine the effectiveness of the barriers that have prevented an accident in a real occurrence.

Modelling of Traffic Incidents in Transport

Skorupski J.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2012

Vol. 6, no. 3

357--365

Safety is one of the most important criteria for assessing the transport process. The traffic process in available traffic space are partly organized and planned. However, these plans are subject to numerous disturbances of probabilistic nature. These disturbances, contribute to the commission of errors by the operators of vehicles and traffic managers. They lead to traffic incidents, which under certain circumstances may transform into accidents. In the paper the method of modelling traffic incidents, using different types of Petri nets is presented. Example of the serious air traffic incident shows the opportunities offered by the application of this modelling tech-nique. In addition, the possibility of its use in maritime transport, for example, modelling of traffic at the wa-terways intersection is presented.

Estimating the Number of Tanker Collisions in the Gulf of Finland in 2015

Hanninen P., Kujala P., Ylitalo J., Kuronen J.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2012

Vol. 6, no. 3

367--373

The paper presents a model for estimating the number of ship-ship collisions for future traffic scenarios. The modeling is based on an approach where the number of collisions in an area is estimated as a product of the number collision candidates, i.e. the number of collisions of two ships, if no evasive maneuvers were made, and a causation probability describing the probability of making no evasive maneuvers. However, the number of collisions is presented as a combination of binomially distributed random variables. The model is applied for the assessment of tanker collision frequency in the Gulf of Finland in 2015. 2015 traffic is modeled as three alternative scenarios each having a certain probability of occurrence. The number of collisions can be presented either for each scenario, or as an estimate including the uncertainty in future marine traffic development by taking into account all scenarios and their occurrence probabilities.