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Modelling of Traffic Incidents in Transport

Skorupski J.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2012

Vol. 6, no. 3

357--365

Safety is one of the most important criteria for assessing the transport process. The traffic process in available traffic space are partly organized and planned. However, these plans are subject to numerous disturbances of probabilistic nature. These disturbances, contribute to the commission of errors by the operators of vehicles and traffic managers. They lead to traffic incidents, which under certain circumstances may transform into accidents. In the paper the method of modelling traffic incidents, using different types of Petri nets is presented. Example of the serious air traffic incident shows the opportunities offered by the application of this modelling tech-nique. In addition, the possibility of its use in maritime transport, for example, modelling of traffic at the wa-terways intersection is presented.

Finite Discrete Markov Model of Ship Safety

Smolarek L.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2010

Vol. 4, no. 2

223--226

The ship safety modeling is the process used to convert information from many sources about the ship as an antropotechnical system into a form so that it can be analyzed effectively. The first step is to fix the system (ship, human, environment) boundaries to clearly identify the scope of the analysis. The ship can be generally defined by conceptual sketches, schematics drawings or flow diagrams to establish the element hierarchy which evolves from the physical and functional relationships. The man could be generally defined by the operational procedures. The environment could be generally defined by the mission place and time of the year. The information is needed considering that the accidents are caused by factors associated with ship (failure, design defect), man (human error, workload), and environment. Safety is a system property that we intuitively relate to a system’s design, accident rates and risk. This work proposes finite discrete Markov model as an example of systematic approach to the analysis of ship safety.