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1 2020

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Simulation of Reliability Prediction Based on Multiple Factors for Spinning Machine

Li Chen, Liu Rongxing, Pan Fukui

Autex Research Journal

2020

Vol. 20, no. 1

17--23

Reliability prediction of spinning machines can result in a time-saving and cost-saving development process with high reliability. Based on an analysis of failure times among systems and subsystems, a simulation method for reliability prediction of spinning machines is proposed by using the Monte Carlo simulation model. Firstly, factor weights are determined according to the fuzzy scoring and analytic hierarchy process. According to the status of reliability growth, growth coefficients are proposed based on reliability influencing factor weights and fuzzy scoring. To achieve the prediction of reliability distribution law, reliability index, and fault frequency, the reliability prediction model is constituted by combining the reliability growth coefficient and the Monte Carlo simulation model. Simulation results for spinning machines are obtained via the model thus built, which are confirmed with a practical example.