Wyniki wyszukiwania - BazTech

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O uogólnianiu wyników analiz ilościowych w naukach o zarządzaniu

Chybalski F.

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Łódzka

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2017

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z. 67

5--18

PL

W artykule omówiono problematykę uogólniania wyników analiz ilościowych z próby na populację, szczególną uwagę kierując na wykorzystanie metod wnioskowania statystycznego w naukach o zarządzaniu. Dyskusji poddano uwarunkowania i specyfikę procesu uogólniania wyników, losowe i nielosowe schematy doboru próby oraz różnice pomiędzy wynikami z próby oraz wynikami z populacji. Wyjaśniono źródło ryzyka popełnienia błędu na etapie wnioskowania statystycznego oraz omówiono jego prawdopodobieństwo. Zwrócono uwagę na możliwość uogólniania wyników z próby nielosowej na populację, ale w oparciu o prawdopodobieństwo subiektywne. Omówiono również problematykę uogólniania wyników w przypadku analiz mechanizmów ekonomicznych.

EN

The paper addresses a very important topic of the inference from a sample to population, with a special attention paid to the application of statistical methods of inference in management science. The conditions and specifies of inference. Random and non-random sampling techniques, the difference between results obtained from the population or from the sample as well as inference in the case of the studies on economic mechanisms are discussed. The source of an error corresponding to statistical inference as well as its probability are explained. The author addresses also the problem of the inference from a non-random sample to population with the application of subjective probability.

2

Forecast value added (FVA) analysis as a means to improve the efficiency of a forecasting process

Chybalski F.

Operations Research and Decisions

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2017

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Vol. 27, No. 1

5--19

EN

A praxeological approach has been proposed in order to improve a forecasting process through the employment of the forecast value added (FVA) analysis. This may be interpreted as a manifestation of lean management in forecasting. The author discusses the concepts of the effectiveness and efficiency of forecasting. The former, defined in the praxeology as the degree to which goals are achieved, refers to the accuracy of forecasts. The latter reflects the relation between the benefits accruing from the re-sults of forecasting and the costs incurred in this process. Since measuring the benefits accruing from a forecasting is very difficult, a simplification according to which this benefit is a function of the fore-cast accuracy is proposed. This enables evaluating the efficiency of the forecasting process. Since im-proving this process may consist of either reducing forecast error or decreasing costs, FVA analysis, which expresses the concept of lean management, may be applied to reduce the waste accompanying forecasting.

3

Oddziaływanie OFE na kształtowanie i przestrzeganie zasad ładu korporacyjnego w spółkach giełdowych

Marcinkiewicz E., Chybalski F.

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Łódzka

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2013

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z. 55

141--150

PL

Celem artykułu jest określenie potencjału oddziaływania OFE jako pojedynczych funduszy oraz jako grupy funduszy na ład korporacyjny w spółkach publicznych na rodzimym rynku kapitałowym. Przeprowadzona zostanie również ocena poziomu przestrzegania zasad corporate governance w spółkach notowanych na GPW.

EN

The purpose of this article is to identify the potential impact of open pension funds as individual s and as a group of funds on corporate governance in public companies on the domestic capital market. The assessment of the level of the corporate governance in companies listed on the WSE will be also conducted.

4

Skuteczność i efektywność systemu emerytalnego: koncepcja analizy i próba pomiaru

Chybalski F.

Zeszyty Naukowe. Rozprawy Naukowe / Politechnika Łódzka

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2012

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Z. 419

1-1

EN

This paper concerns issues relating to the effectiveness and efficiency of old-age pension system, these being matters very rarely addressed in either the Polish or foreign literature. Taking as a starting point considerations of effectiveness and efficiency in economics, definitions are proposed for the effectiveness and efficiency of a pension system, their determinants and interdependencies are described, and issues relating to their measurement are presented. The old-age pension system is defined broadly, as a tool for the allocation of income over the life cycle so as to provide for income (and consequently consumption) in the period of old age. The effectiveness of the pension system is defined here as a feature characterizing the degree to which it achieves its basic purpose - the income objective. The efficiency of the system is defined as a feature characterizing the level of the system's financial stability and security, profitability, costliness, and effect on the economy. The effectiveness and efficiency of the pension system are treated in this work as multidimensional features. The dimensions of effectiveness are poverty among pensioners, pensioner incomes, and differentiation in poverty and income between pensioners of different sexes. The dimensions of efficiency, on the other hand, are economic balance, investment performance, cost-effectiveness and effect on the labour market. The methodological section of the paper focuses primarily on the author's proposal for a procedure to measure the effectiveness and efficiency of pension systems using a tool of multidimensional comparative analysis, namely linear ordering with a synthetic measure. Proposed sets of indicators of effectiveness and indicators of efficiency are proposed, as well as methodology for selecting them based on statistical criteria and a methodology of aggregation, firstly into group indicators representing particular dimensions of effectiveness and efficiency, and then into overall synthetic indicators of effectiveness and efficiency. The empirical part of the work contains measurements of the effectiveness and efficiency of the pension systems in 30 European countries, an evaluation of the quality that measurement and an analysis of interdependencies between a system's effectiveness and efficiency. Measurements and evaluation are also made of the studied features in different pension system types, using two typologies - the first based on the criterion of relations between the state and the market in providing pensions, and the second on the criterion of the degree of redistribution within generations in the pension system. The thesis and hypotheses verified in this work led to the formulation of the following main conclusions: - A multidimensional approach to evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of old-age pension systems is entirely correct and necessary in order to make a comprehensive evaluation of them. To treat these two categories as single-dimensional features is an extreme simplification and may lead to erroneous conclusions. - The method of linear ordering with a synthetic measure, based above all on substantial criteria for the selection of appropriate diagnostic indicators, is a good tool for relative evaluation of the effectiveness and efficiency of pension systems. - Different pension system types can be effective in a multidimensional sense. The role of the state or the level of redistribution within generations are not therefore determinants of that effectiveness. Indeed the unravelling of the myth that the state will always be solvent means that the state is not able to guarantee an adequate level of effectiveness of the pension system, but can only promise it, which is something quite different. - In terms of the efficiency of the pension system, it is important to diversify the risk of pension payments, and by the same token the pension liabilities, between the state and the market, or otherwise between the public and private sector. This view is supported by the fact that among the analysed pension systems, those that were classified as mixed type were more efficient on average. Moreover, among the countries analysed, it was found that systems based on the Beveridge model are more efficient than those based on the Bismarck model. - The more effective pension systems are less efficient, are characterized by a lower degree of economic balance, and have more of an adverse effect on the labour market. This conclusion may appear surprising, but if effectiveness in the present approach is identified to a large degree with the adequacy of the income provided by the pension system, while efficiency is identified with the system's stability and effect on the labour market, then the conclusion would seem to confirm the dependency according to which more generous old-age pension systems are less economical (and cost more).

5

Statistical analysis of open pension funds rates of return

Chybalski F.

Zeszyty Naukowe. Prace Instytutu Ekonomiki i Organizacji Przedsiębiorstw / Uniwersytet Szczeciński

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2007

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Nr 50, t. 1

367-373

EN

Open pension funds have been functioning since the pension system reform in Poland in 1999. The main subject of their activity is investing the assets which is, except contributions, the most important factor of accumulation of the retirement capital. The paper includes the statistical analysis of the monthly OPFs rates of return during the period from October 1999 to January 2006. This research consists especially of: analysis of similarity of OPFs rates of return, verification of the hypothesis that OPFs increase their rates of return in the period directly before the moment of publication of these rates, analysis of variance of rates of return. In the conclusion the author claims that the effects of OPFs measured by rates of return are not significantly different. It can be the result of the similar investment strategies realized by OPFs. This way pension funds avoid the situation in which they have to cover the shortage of assets

PL

Otwarte fundusze emerytalne działają w Polsce od 1999 roku, kiedy to zaczął funkcjonować zreformowany system emerytalny. Podstawową sferą działalności tych instytucji jest inwestowanie powierzonych aktywów, co stanowi obok wpłacanych składek najistotniejszy czynnik akumulacji kapitału emerytalnego. Artykuł zawiera statystyczną analizę sto zwrotu OFE, podstawowej miary efektywności dokonywanych przez fundusze inwestycji. Analizą objęto miesięczne stopy zwrotu w okresie od października 1999 do stycznia 2006. Przeprowadzona analiza zawiera m. in.: analizę podobieństwa stóp zwrotu OFE, próbę weryfikacji hipotezy, że otwarte fundusze emerytalne podwyższają osiągane stopy zwrotu w okresach bezpośrednio poprzedzających moment publikowania informacji o 3-letnich stopach zwrotu OFE przez Komisję Nadzoru Ubezpieczeń i Funduszy Emerytalnych (obecnie Komisję Nadzoru Finansowego). W podsumowaniu autor stwierdza przede wszystkim, że stopy zwrotu OFE są bardzo podobne, co może być skutkiem realizowania przez OFE zbliżonych strategii inwestycyjnych. Ma to prawdopodobnie na celu uniknięcie wystąpienia niedoboru aktywów poprzez nieosiągnięcie minimalnej wymaganej stopy zwrotu, co zobowiązuje towarzystwo zarządzające funduszem do jego uzupełnienia.