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Evaluation of land use and land cover changes on groundwater resources in the Pasi Watershed, Pasi Gusung Island, Selayar Islands

Musdalipah Fachrie, Hazairin Zubair, Arifuddin Akil, Saridayana Thamrin Putri

Ecological Engineering & Environmental Technology

2025

Vol. 26, iss. 3

301--314

Water is of vital importance to ecosystems and human societies. Because of this, the UN Secretary-General has included the availability of clean water as one of the sustainable development goals (SDGs). This study examined the impact of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on groundwater availability in the Pasi watershed on Pasi Gusung Island, Selayar Islands. LULC changes significantly influence water balance as they determine infiltration and surface runoff patterns. Using cellular automata (CA) integrated with artificial neural network (ANN) modeling via the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS, historical LULC data from 2014 to 2023 were examined and changes through 2033 were forecasted. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was utilized to evaluate the impact of these changes on water availability. The analysis revealed significant LULC alterations, including the expansion of residential and agricultural areas, a decline in mangrove forests, and reduced groundwater recharge capacity. SWAT results suggest a potential reduction in groundwater storage due to decreased infiltration linked to LULC transformations. This study shows a close relationship between land use and land cover changes and fluctuations in groundwater availability in the Pasi watershed. Analysis of land cover from 2014 to 2023 and projections to 2033 show patterns of change that affect the hydrology of the area, including groundwater discharge and the balance between water availability and demand. Continued population growth pressures already limited water resources, creating a growing annual water deficit. This research provides strategic insights for developing sustainable water supply systems in response to projected land use change.