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A Bayesian model of group decision-making

Wibig T., Karbowiak M., Jaszczyk M.

Operations Research and Decisions

2016

Vol. 26, No. 1

95--110

A change in the opinion of a group, treated as a network of communicating agents, caused by the accumulation of new information is expected to depend on communication within the group, cooperation and, possibly, a kind of conformity mechanism. We have developed a mathematical model of the creation of a group decision, including this effect. This is based on a Bayesian description of inference and can be used for both conscious and inattentive acts. This model can be used to study the effect of whether a leader exists or not and other group inhomogeneities, as well as establishing the (statistical) significance and quality of a group decision. The proposed evolution equations explain in a straightfor-ward, analytical way some general properties of the general phenomenon of conformity (groupthink). To illustrate this theoretical idea in practice, we created an information technology (IT) tool to study the effect of conformity in a small group. As an example, we present results of an experiment performed using a network of students’ tablets, which could not only measure group pressure, but also conduct and control collaborative thinking in the group.

Inwazja mózgów Boltzmannowskich

Wibig T.

Postępy Fizyki

2010

T. 61, z. 1

27-36

Ostatnie odkrycia astrofizyczne wykazujące niezbicie, że żyjemy we Wszechświecie zdominowanym przez stałą kosmologiczną, doprowadziły także do odkrycia w kosmologii kwantowej nowego paradoksu, znanego jako "inwazja mózgów boltzmannowskich". Jest on dyskutowany szeroko, szczególnie po wyprowadzeniu zeń wniosku o nieuchronnym i rychłym (za c.a. 10 miliardów lat) końcu świata. Pora więc może zastanowić się chwilę nad naszą przyszłością.

Recent astrophysical discoveries which undoubtedly show that we live in the universe dominated by the cosmological constant lead also to the paradox known as "Invasion of Boltzmannian Brains". It is widely discussed specially since it has been suggested that one of its inevitable conclusions could be not very far (˜ 10 billion years) but absolutely definite end of the world: a good reason to stop for a while and think about our future.