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Wpływ zmian klimatycznych na zasięg ekstremalnych wezbrań sztormowych w strefie brzegowej Zatoki Gdańskiej pod koniec XXI wieku

Przygrodzki P., Letkiewicz B., Mykita M.

Inżynieria Morska i Geotechnika

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2012

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nr 5

585-592

PL

W ciągu najbliższych stu lat częstość występowania wezbrań sztormowych wzdłuż polskiego wybrzeża oraz ich poziomy ulegną wzrostowi na skutek zmian klimatycznych. Spowoduje to realne zagrożenie dla terenów znajdujących w bezpośrednim sąsiedztwie akwenów morskich. Wyniki przeprowadzonych badań wskazują, iż w rejonie Zatoki Gdańskiej maksymalne poziomy podczas skrajnie ekstremalnych wezbrań sztormowych mogą zostać przekroczone nawet o ponad 150 cm.

EN

Within one hundred nearest years the frequency of appearing of storm surges and their levels along the Polish coast will increase as a result of climatic changes. It will cause a real danger for areas finding in the immediate vicinity of sea basins. Results of conducted studies indicate, that in the area of the Gdańsk Bay maximum levels during extreme storm surges can be exceeded even over 150 cm.

2

Low Sea Level Occurrence of the Southern Baltic Sea Coast

Stanisławczyk I., Kowalska B., Mykita M.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

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2010

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Vol. 4, no. 2

199--204

PL

The level of 440 cm is defined as the upper limit of low sea level. This value is also accepted as the warning level for navigation, according to the NAVTEX. The low sea levels along the southern Baltic Sea coast were analyzed in the years 1955 – 2005. Lowest values recorded ranged from 309 cm in Wismar to 370 cm in Kołobrzeg. The phenomenon was chiefly generated by hurricane like offshore winds. Extremely low levels were not frequent, their occurrence did not exceed more than 0,3% in Świnoujście and not more than 1% in Warnemünde. In summer months these phenomena occurred extremely seldom, they were more fre-quent in the western, than in the eastern part of the coast. Long-term variation and statistical analysis was pre-sented. Probability of low sea levels occurrence was calculated by Gumbel method and percentile distribution for 4 gauge stations was analyzed. The calculations revealed that, for instance, in Warnemünde once in 20 years the minimum sea level can be as low as 358 cm.

3

Quality assessment of the hiromb water level forecast for the Polish coastal zone

Kowalska B., Stanisławczyk I., Mykita M.

Biuletyn Instytutu Morskiego w Gdańsku

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2001

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Vol. 28, No. 2

65--70

EN

The aim of this paper is to compare the observed water level and the results of HIROMB model for the same period. Real sea level values, collected in the data base of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Gdynia were measured by Polish water gauges situated along tlze west part of coast and around the Gulf of Gdansk. The analysed data were from the period 15.08.1998 - 28.05.1999, and the forecast lead time was equal to 24 hours. The assumed reference level, equal to 500 cm, caused too high forecast levels and marked differences between observed and computed sea levels. In order to improve the results of modelling a new reference level has been established. Having introduced the new reference level, a better agreement between the observed and computed values was obtained in most cases. The validation of modelled results was carried out by means of the chosen statistical indicators.