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2 2023

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Medium- and long-term prediction of polar motion using weighted least squares extrapolation and vector autoregressive modeling

Lei Yu, Zhao Danning, Guo Min

Artificial Satellites : Journal of Planetary Geodesy

2023

Vol. 58, No. 2

42--55

This article presents the application of weighted least squares (WLS) extrapolation and vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling in polar motion prediction. A piecewise weighting function is developed for the least squares (LS) adjustment in consideration of the effect of intervals between observation and prediction epochs on WLS extrapolation. Furthermore, the VAR technique is used to simultaneously model and predict the residuals of xp, yp pole coordinates for WLS misfit. The simultaneous predictions of xp, yp pole coordinates are subsequently computed by the combination of WLS extrapolation of harmonic models for the linear trend, Chandler and annual wobbles, and VAR stochastic prediction of the residuals (WLS+VAR). The 365-day-ahead xp, yp predictions are compared with those generated by LS extrapolation+univariate AR prediction and LS extrapolation+VAR modeling. It is shown that the xp, yp predictions based on WLS+VAR taking into consideration both the interval effect and correlation between xp and yp outperform those generated by two others. The accuracies of the xp predictions are 13.97 mas, 18.47 mas, and 20.52 mas, respectively for the 150-, 270-, and 365-day horizon in terms of the mean absolute error statistics, 36%, 24.8%, and 33.5% higher than LS+AR, respectively. For the yp predictions, the 150-, 270-, and 365-day accuracies are 15.41 mas, 21.17 mas, and 21.82 mas respectively, 27.4%, 11.9%, and 21.8% higher than LS+AR respectively. Moreover, the absolute differences of the WLS+VAR predictions and observations are smaller than the differences from LS+VAR and LS+AR, which is practically important to practical and scientific users, although the improvement in accuracies is no more than 10% relative to LS+VAR. The further comparison with the predictions submitted to the 1st Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (1st EOP PCC) shows that while the accuracy of the predictions within 30 days is comparable with that by the most accurate prediction techniques including neural networks and LS+AR participating in the campaign for xp, yp pole coordinates, the accuracy of the predictions up to 365 days into the future are better than accuracies by the other techniques except best LS+AR used in the EOP PCC. It is therefore concluded that the medium- and long-term prediction accuracy of polar motion can be improved by modeling xp, yp pole coordinates together.

Research on the linear viscoelastic rheological properties of rejuvenated asphalt mastic based on the discrete element method

Lin Mei, Lei Yu, Li Ping, Shuai Jun, Wang Zhaoli

Archives of Civil Engineering

2023

Vol. 69, nr 2

399--416

The rheological property of asphalt is an important factor affecting the pavement performance of asphalt binder, and the fundamental reason for the change of asphalt rheological property is the strong evolution of asphalt material meso structure. However, the internal mechanism of rejuvenated asphalt mastic system is complex and its rules are difficult to grasp. Aiming to study the relationship between meso mechanical parameters and rheological parameters of rejuvenated asphalt mastic, the meso structure model of rejuvenated asphalt mastic was established and improved based on the discrete element method. Moreover, the meso parameters of the model were obtained by the objective function method, and then the influences of various factors were studied to construct the mathematical constitutive model of rheological parameter modulus and meso mechanical parameters. Combing with the reliability of the improved Burgers model was verified based on the rheological test results of rejuvenated asphalt mastic. In addition, the virtual test of dynamic shear rheological dynamic frequency scanning was carried out on the asphalt mastic sample by particle flow software. By adjusting the mesomechanical parameters, the simulation results (complex shear modulus and phase angle) were consistent with the test results. This study clarified the relationship between mesomechanics and macro performance, and this model could be used to obtain the complex shear modulus of rejuvenated asphalt mastic under different types, filler-asphalt ratio and external force environments by adjusting particle flow, wall boundary and other conditions, which can greatly save the workload for the later research and provide a theoretical basis for production experiments.