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1 2025

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Hindcasting of Extreme Wave Events in the Fairway of Port of Santos (Brazil) over the Last Eighty Years

Alfredini Paolo, Arasaki Emilia, Puia Helder Luiz

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2025

Vol. 19 No. 1

269--274

Port of Santos is responsible for 29.0% Brazil’s trade flow. A concern arisen due to climate changes has been the increase in the frequency and severity of extreme wave events on the fairway. The limit established by the Maritime Authority's Pilotage Regulations for the total suspension of traffic on the fairway regarding waves is when significant heights greater than 3.0 m occur. A summary of the hindcasting of extreme wave events in Santos Bay since 1940 has been presented. The findings of the statistical assessment since that time identified an increase of more than 6 times in environmental downtime due to extreme wave events and the analysis of extreme wave height values for return periods of 50, 75 and 100 years revealed increases of 3.8% to 9.9%, depending on the statistical distribution used and the return period considered.