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1

Impact of ATM location on its profitability in Malopolskie and Podkarpackie provinces

Gurgul H., Suder M.

Managerial Economics

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2018

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Vol. 19, no. 1

49--73

EN

The first decade of the 21st century saw a dynamic development in ATM networks. This was reflected in the growth of the number of ATMs and number of withdrawals. However, in the beginning of the second decade, a slowdown in the dynamic development of this part of the banking system has been observed in Poland. The signifi cant reduction of interchange (which is the main source of revenue for ATM network deployers) and growing availability of cashless payments tempered a further intensive development of these networks. Over the next 3 years, this regression was reflected in the declining number of withdrawals from ATMs and the insignificant growth of the number of ATMs. Therefore, ATM owners are forced to search for new solutions that could guarantee more profits. One way is the suitable choice of locations for new ATMs and removal of ATMs from non-profi table locations. In this paper, the authors have attempted to indicate the locations with the largest number of withdrawals on the basis of the number of withdrawals from the ATMs of the one of the largest ATM network deployers. The ATMs with the largest number of withdrawals are sources of the largest profits due to interchange. The authors have also indicated those locations where ATMs can be a source of losses.

2

Trading volume and volatility patterns across selected Central European stock markets from microstructural perspective

Gurgul H., Syrek R.

Managerial Economics

|

2017

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Vol. 18, no. 1

87--101

EN

In this paper, the intraday patterns of trading volumes and volatilities as well as autocorrelations are investigated using high-frequency data. The analysis is performed for companies listed in the main German, Austrian, and Polish indices with the aid of Flexible Fourier Form regression. We have found some similarities to prior investigations in light of stylized facts about intraday patterns. We noted the differences in intraday patterns and autocorrelations across markets, which depend on the maturity level of the market. The most-regular patterns are observed for DAX companies. Additionally, using day-of-the-week dummies, we discover some peaks that can be associated with macroeconomic announcements in Germany and the US. This leads to conclusions that the day of the week and announcements should be taken into account in modeling volatilities (returns) and volumes from high-frequency data.

3

MIDAS models in banking sector – systemic risk comparison

Gurgul H., Mestel R., Syrek R.

Managerial Economics

|

2017

|

Vol. 18, no. 2

165--181

EN

This paper shows the application of MIDAS based models in systemic risk assessment in banking sector. We consider two popular measures of systemic risk i.e. Marginal Expected Shortfall and Delta Conditional Value at Risk. The GARCH-MIDAS model is used in modelling conditional volatilities. The long-run component is modeled using realized volatility. The conditional correlation, second step of modelling, is described with DCC-MIDAS model. This is novel approach in respect to classical TARCH and DCC modelling. Whereas the information contained in macroeconomic variables, if available, can help to predict short and long-term components, this is the promising option in improvement of systemic risk assessment.

4

The logarithmic ACD model: The microstructure of the German and Polish stock markets

Gurgul H., Syrek R.

Managerial Economics

|

2016

|

Vol. 17, no. 1

77--92

EN

The main goal of this paper is to compare the microstructure of selected stocks listed on the Frankfurt and Warsaw Stock Exchanges. We focus on the properties of duration on both markets and on fitting the appropriate ACD models. Because of the quite different levels of capitalization of stocks on these markets, we observe essential discrepancies between these stocks. While for most German companies on the DAX30, the Burr distribution fits better than generalized gamma distribution, the latter distribution is superior in the case of the largest Polish companies. Analyzing series by hazard function, we note the similarity of hazard functions for companies on both markets, which tend to have a U-shaped pattern.

5

The impact of asynchronous trading on Epps effect. Comparative study on Warsaw Stock Exchange and Vienna Stock Exchange

Gurgul H., Machno A.

Managerial Economics

|

2016

|

Vol. 17, no. 1

59--75

EN

The novelty/value added of this paper is the comparison of the Epps effect between developed and emerging stock markets from Central Europe by means of the correction formula derived by the authors. The main goal of the study is to test whether or not asynchrony in transaction times is a considerable source of the Epps effect in the case of the Warsaw and Vienna stock exchanges for the most-liquid assets from these markets. Among all analyzed stock pairs on the WSE, asynchrony turns out to be the main cause of the Epps effect. However, the corrected correlation estimator seems to be more volatile than the regular estimator of the correlation. In the case of the VSE, evidence of the Epps effect is not unique. For the most-liquid and most-correlated pair (namely, ANDR-EBS), the analysis delivers similar results as for Polish stocks. However, the Epps effect could not be detected for the remaining pairs on the VSE. The presented analysis can be reproduced for the same data or replicated for another dataset; all R codes used in the computation within this paper are available upon request.

6

Price duration versus trading volume in high-frequency data for selected DAX companies

Gurgul H., Syrek R., Mitterer C.

Managerial Economics

|

2016

|

Vol. 17, no. 2

241--260

EN

The main goal of this paper is to gain insights into the dependence structure between the duration and trading volume of selected stocks listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. We demonstrate the usefulness of the copula function to describe the dependence of specific unevenly spaced time series. The properties of the time series of price durations and trading volumes under study are in line with common observations from other empirical studies. We observe clustering, overdispersion, and diurnality. For most of the stocks, the seminal model (linear parametrization with exponential or Weibull distribution) can be replaced by a logarithmic specification with more-flexible conditional distributions. The price duration and trading volume associated with this duration exhibit dependence in the tails of distribution. We may conclude that high cumulative trading volumes are associated with long duration. However, changes of price over short times are related to low cumulative volume.

7

Linear and nonlinear intraday causalities in response to U.S. macroeconomic news announcements: Evidence from Central Europe

Gurgul H., Lach Ł., Wójtowicz T.

Managerial Economics

|

2016

|

Vol. 17, no. 2

217--240

EN

This paper deals with an analysis of the information flow on and between three European stock markets operating in Frankfurt, Vienna, and Warsaw. We examine causal links between returns, volatility, and trading volume as well as the time of reaction to a news release and changes in the duration of causal interference. To model the conditional variance, we use the ARMA(1,1)- EGARCH-M(1,1) model. We investigate linear and nonlinear Granger causalities on the three stock exchanges using Bayesian large sample correction of the critical values in significance tests. The results of our study confirm the dominant role of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, since the most significant linear relationship is the causality running from DAX30 returns to the returns of the ATX20 and WIG20 (which exists irrespective of the time of the day, presence of important public news, and lag length of the underlying VAR models). Moreover, the empirical results of this paper confirm the strong impact of announcements of macroeconomic news from the U.S. economy on the structure of both linear and nonlinear causal links on the three markets under study

8

Comparative advantage of the EU in global value chains: How important and efficient are new EU members in transition?

Gurgul H., Lach Ł.

Managerial Economics

|

2016

|

Vol. 17, no. 1

21--58

EN

We suggest original modifications and extensions of the recently presented methodological developments in ex-post accounting framework in global value chains in order to obtain empirical results both for the analyzed group of ten CEE economies as well as at a country-and-sectorspecific level. The empirical results confirm that the role of the selected CEE economies in transition in creating value added with respect to the total value added in the European Union in the GVC framework was biggest in the cases of agriculture-, wood-products-, metal-production, and travel-and-tourism-related sectors. We also found that, after two decades of transition, the measures of productivity in the examined economies in 2009 were still much lower as compared to the EU average for most of the sectors. Moreover, in the transition period, these indexes were increasing, especially after EU accession. In contrary, after two decades of transition, the measures of capital efficiency in the ten CEE economies in 2009 were comparable to the EU average for most of the sectors. Moreover, during this period, the growth rates of these indexes were, in general, positive. However, their growth rates dropped after EU accession.

9

The impact of estimation methods and data frequency on the results of long memory assessment

Brania K., Gurgul H.

Managerial Economics

|

2015

|

Vol. 16, no. 1

7--37

EN

The main goal of this paper is to examine the effects of selected methods of estimation (the Geweke and Porter-Hudak, modified Geweke and Porter-Hudak, Whittle, R/S Rescaled Range Statistic, aggregated variance, aggregated absolute value, and Peng’s variance of residuals methods) and data frequency on properties of Hurst exponents for stock returns, volatility, and trading volumes of 43 companies and eight stock market indices. The calculations have been performed for a time series of log-returns, squared log-returns, and log-volume (based on hourly and daily data) by nine methods. Descriptive statistics and distribution laws of Hurst exponents depend on the method of estimation and, to some extent, on data frequency (daily and hourly). While by and large in log-returns no long memory has been detected, some estimation methods confirm the existence of long memory in squared log-returns. All of the applied estimation methods show long memory in log-volume data.

10

Key sectors after a decade of transition: Evidence from Poland

Gurgul H., Lach Ł.

Managerial Economics

|

2015

|

Vol. 16, no. 1

39--79

EN

This paper is one of the first studies dedicated to the extensive examination of the dynamics of key sectors in Poland in the period of transition. The research was based on the maximum entropy decomposition of the Leontief inverse applied to the highly-disaggregated input-output tables covering the period of 2000–2005. The results allow formulating the list of sectors, which, more or less, have preserved the status of the key sectors in Poland. In turn, some sectors (especially the financial-intermediation- and food-and-agriculture-related ones) have significantly derailed, while services-related sectors (including the transport, tourism, and trade services) have clearly gained in importance. These facts, together with rising importance of certain manufacturing sectors, may suggest that Poland has largely managed to avoid the most negative consequences of the process of de-industrialization, which has been taking place in CEE from the beginning of transition.

11

The optimal portfolio under VaR and ES

Gurgul H., Machno A.

Operations Research and Decisions

|

2014

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Vol. 24, No. 2

59--79

EN

An analysis of the dependence structure among certain European indices (FTSE100, CAC40, DAX30, ATX20, PX, BUX and BIST) has been conducted. The main features of the financial data were studied: asymmetry, fat-tailedness (leptokurtosis), variability and mutual dependence. We have fitted a regime switching copula based model including asymmetric and fat-tailed copulas. All the indices are left-skewed and fat-tailed. Large indices are more skewed and less fail-tailed. The findings suggest that size of a market has an influence on its properties. A particular behaviour of the Turkish market suggests the importance of geographical factors. It is also suggested that the maturity of a market is insignificant in the analysis. Another important conclusion drawn from our empirical investigation is that VaR is a less exact risk measure than ES. However, the dynamics of the temporal and statistical properties of both measures are similar.

12

The relationship between WIG-subindexes: evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange

Gurgul H., Syrek R.

Managerial Economics

|

2014

|

Vol. 15, no. 2

149--164

EN

Evidence on links among the major Warsaw Stock Exchange subindexes using daily data from the period of 2011.03 01 to 2014.07.21 is provided in the paper. The empirical study for eleven WIG-sectoral subindexes with 844 observations was conducted by means of Regular Vine Copulas. The application of these copulas allowed us to identify the pairwise structure of the dependence of subindexes under study. The results confirm the leading role of the banking sector in the Polish economy. The dependence structure of the WIG-banking subindex and other subindexes is, in general, asymmetrical. The links between returns of the subindexes are more pronounced in the left tails; i.e., in the bear phase of financial markets. This study suggests the usefulness of Regular Vine Copulas in analyzing dependence structures of a number of financial time series.

13

The effect of location on the distribution of withdrawals from selected ATMs of the "Euronet" network

Gurgul H., Suder M

Managerial Economics

|

2014

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Vol. 15, no. 1

43--62

EN

Information about the distribution of withdrawals is very essential for ATM networks. It supports optimization of the replenishment process for ATMs. The conducted research showed that the daily distribution of withdrawals was similar among the examined ATMs owned by the Euronet company. Location was the main factor in determining empirical distribution on the same days of the week. Logistic distribution fit best to withdrawals from ATMs located in shopping centers, bank branches, shops, and supermarkets. In addition, uniform distribution was found to be the best alternative for withdrawals from ATMs operating at petrol stations.

14

The testing of causal stock returns-trading volume dependencies with the aid of copulas

Gurgul H., Mestel R., Syrek R.

Managerial Economics

|

2013

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nr 13

21--44

EN

This paper is concerned with a dependence analysis of returns, return volatility and trading volume for five companies listed on the Vienna Stock Exchange. Taking into account the high frequency data for these companies, tests based on a comparison of Bernstein copula densities using the Hellinger distance were conducted. It is worth noting that these tests can be used in general settings since there is no restriction on the dimension of the data. The parameter which must be set up for the testing procedure is a bandwidth. It is necessary for estimation of the nonparametric copula. The paper presents some patterns of causal relationships between stock returns, realized volatility and expected and unexpected trading volume. There is linear causality running from realized volatility to expected trading volume, and a lack of nonlinear dependence in the opposite direction. The authors detected strong linear and nonlinear causality from stock returns to expected trading volume. Therefore, a knowledge of past stock returns can improve forecasts of expected trading volume. They did not find causality running in the opposite direction.

PL

W artykule przeprowadzono analizę zależności pomiędzy stopami zwrotu, ich zmiennością oraz wielkością obrotów pięciu spółek notowanych na Wiedeńskiej Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych. Wykorzystując dane wysokiej częstotliwości, przeprowadzono testy, wykorzystując kopule Bernsteina oraz odległość Hellingera. Warto zauważyć, że testy te mogą być zastosowane dla dowolnej liczby zmiennych. Jedynym parametrem, który musi określić badacz, jest parametr określający dokładność oszacowania nieparametrycznych gęstości kopuł. W pracy zaprezentowano pewne wzory zależności przyczynowych pomiędzy stopami zwrotu, zmiennością oraz oczekiwanym i nieoczekiwanym wolumenem. Wykazano, że istnieje zależność przyczynowa od zmienności zrealizowanej do oczekiwanego wolumenu i brak takiej zależności w odwrotnym kierunku. Wykryto silną zależność przyczynową liniową oraz nieliniową od stóp zwrotu do oczekiwanego wolumenu. Oznacza to, że znajomość historycznych stóp zwrotu może być pomocna w prognozowaniu oczekiwanego wolumenu. Nie wykryto zależności w kierunku przeciwnym.

15

The structure of contemporaneous price-volume relationships in financial markets

Gurgul H., Syrek R.

Managerial Economics

|

2013

|

nr 14

39--60

EN

The main goal of this paper is an examination of the interdependence stuctures of stock returns, volatility and trading volumes of companies listed on the CAC40 and FTSE100. The authors establish that the mean values of respective measures are different on the markets under study. In general, they are larger for equities from CAC40 than from FTSE100. The Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis with long memory is rejected for about 70 % of stocks from both markets. Additionally fractional cointegration was tested. The lack of fractional cointegration, suggests a rejection of the last variant of MDH in all cases, i.e. the time series under study do not exhibit common long-run dependence. The analyzed time series are not driven by a common information arrival process with long memory. Correlation between volatility and trading volume is present for all the stocks of companies from these markets. The mixtures of rotated copulas and Kendall correlation coefficient allowed the checking of extreme return-volume dependence structures. The empirical results reflect significant dependencies between high volatility and high trading volume. In general, the dependence structures of stock returns and trading volume are different. In the case of CAC40 companies high trading volume is not correlated as frequently with high stock returns as with low stock returns. For companies listed on the FTSE100 high stock returns are mostly related with high trading volume.

PL

Głównym celem artykułu jest znalezienie zależności pomiędzy stopami zwrotu, ich zmiennością oraz wielkością obrotów dla spółek należących do indeksów CAC40 i FTSE100. Autorzy ustalili, że średnie miary zależności na obu badanych rynkach różnią się istotnie. Przeważnie są one większe w przypadku spółek notowanych w indeksie CAC40 aniżeli w przypadku spółek z indeksu FTSE100. Badania empiryczne dają podstawę do odrzucenia ok. 70% akcji z obu rynków hipotezy o mieszance rozkładów (MDH) w przypadku dla wszystkich szeregów czasowych w wersji z długą pamięcią. Dodatkowo przetestowano istnienie kointegracji ułamkowej pomiędzy badanymi chrakterystykami akcji. Stwierdzono brak istotnej statystycznie kointegracji ułamkowej, co sugeruje konieczność odrzucenia ostatniego wariantu MDH odnośnie do badanych szeregów czasowych we wszystkich przypadkach. Świadczy to o tym, że nie wykazują one wzajemnej zależności długoterminowej. Tak więc analizowane szeregi czasowe nie są generowane przez wspólny proces napływu informacji z długą pamięcią. Występuje korelacja pomiędzy zmiennością stóp zwrotu a wielkością obrotów akcji wszystkich spółek z rozważanych rynków. Badania pozwoliły na ustalenie, że mieszanka obróconych kopuł oraz współczynnik korelacji Kendalla umożliwiły sprawdzenie zależności pomiędzy ekstremalnymi stopami zwrotu i ekstremalną wielkością obrotów. Wyniki empiryczne odzwierciedlają istotne zależności pomiędzy wysoką zmiennością stop zwrotu i wysoką wielkością obrotów. Jednak struktury zależności w przypadku poszczególnych spółek różnią się istotnie. W przypadku spółek z CAC40 wysokie wielkości obrotów akcjami nie są tak często skorelowane z wysokimi stopami zwrotu jak z niskimi. Natomiast w przypadku FTSE100 wysokie stopy zwrotu są przeważnie skorelowane z wysokimi wielkościami obrotów.

16

The optimal portfolio in respect to Expected Shortfall: a comparative study

Gurgul H., Machno A., Syrek R.

Managerial Economics

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2013

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nr 14

17--38

EN

Value at Risk plays a crucial role in the risk management. However, this risk measure has some drawbacks. The alternative risk measure is Expected Shortfall, which is rarely used, but exhibits desirable properties. In the paper, the estimation of both risk measures has been conducted, for pairs of index returns (DJIA, DAX, ATX), based on Markowitz model, the regime switching copula model and the multivariate GARCH model. The results suggest that a misspecification can cause many errors. Incorrect models cause bias of mean, especially models which do not assume dynamic structure of the market Both an underestimation and an overestimation of a risk has been observed. In the paper, it is shown that the measure of change in Expected Shortfall as a function of the expected return is strongly underestimated under the normal distribution assumption.

PL

Value at Risk jest kluczową wielkością w zarządzaniu ryzykiem. Jako miara ryzyka nie ma ona jednak pożądanych własności. Alternatywną miarą jest Expected Shorfall, która jest mniej używana w praktyce, za to ma własności, które są oczekiwane przez użytkowników modeli. W artykule zostały oszacowane obie miary, dla par stóp zwrotu z indeksów DJIA, DAX i ATX, na podstawie modeli Markowitza, kopuli przełącznikowych oraz wielowymiarowego GARCH. Otrzymane wyniki pokazują, iż zły dobór modelu może powodować wiele błędów. Modele, które nie uwzględniają dynamicznego charakteru badanych szeregów czasowych błędnie oceniają średnią. Obie badane miary ryzyka mogą być przeszacowane oraz niedoszacowane. Szczególnie błędne okazało się oszacowanie zmiany Expected Shortfall wraz ze wzrostem oczekiwanej stopy zwrotu przy założeniu rozkładu normalnego.

17

Modeling of withdrawals from selected ATMs of the "Euronet" network

Gurgul H., Suder M.

Managerial Economics

|

2013

|

nr 13

65--82

EN

This paper deals with the problem of withdrawals from Automated Teller Machines (ATMs), using daily data for selected ATMs installed by the Euronet network in the Polish provinces of Małopolska and Podkarpacie for the period from January 2008 to March 2012. The main aim of this paper is an estimation of the proper econometric models for withdrawals time series and attempt to forecast future demand on cash flow in ATMs in respect to their localization. This is necessary to establish a replenishment schedule. The results of computations suggest that models built on the basis of SARIMA methodology are useful tools for an modeling daily withdrawals time series. This kind of model can be applied independently of the localization of an ATM. The exercises for ex post data imply ex post forecast errors under 20%. This size of forecast errors is lower than the bias of actual replenishment scheduling.

PL

W artykule został rozważony problem modelowania i prognozowania dziennych wypłat z bankomatów sieci "Euronet" zainstalowanych w województwie małopolskim oraz podkarpackim w okresie od stycznia 2008 do marca 2012. Głównym celem tego artykułu była estymacja modeli szeregów czasowych wypłat z wybranych bankomatów i próba prognozy zapotrzebowania na gotówkę w zależności od ich lokalizacji. Takie badania są niezbędne w celu ustalenia schematu napełniania bankomatów gotówką. Wyniki badań sugerują, że modele bazujące na liniowym modelu SARIMA uwzględniającym efekty sezonowe są użytecznymi narzędziami modelowania szeregów czasowych dziennych wypłat z bankomatów. Okazało się, że ten typ modeli może być stosowany niezależnie od lokalizacji bankomatów. Prognozy ex post są obarczone błędami poniżej 20%. Jest to błąd niższy niż błędy występujące przy stosowaniu obecnych schematów napełniania bankomatów gotówką.

18

Modeling of returns and trading volume by regime switching copulas

Gurgul H., Machno A., Mestel R.

Managerial Economics

|

2013

|

nr 13

45--64

EN

The structure of links between realized volatility and trading volume can be reflected by regime switching copulas. The estimation by means of copula based regime switching models delivered results concerning the interdependencies between realized return volatility and trading volume of selected companies listed in ATX. A copula in the first regime was chosen as an asymmetric copula with positive lower and upper tail dependencies. Conversely Gaussian copula in the second regime is a symmetric copula and variables linked with it are tail independent. For all analyzed stocks the probability of being at the first regime appeared to be vitally greater than being at the second regime. This result suggest that there is considerable dependence between realized volatility and daily volume in extreme values. The results suggest that interdependencies between realized volatility and trading volume do not probably depend on the size but rather on the branch of a company.

PL

Struktura zależności pomiędzy zmiennością zrealizowaną a wielkością obrotów może być oddana za pomocą kopuł przełącznikowych. Estymacja za pomocą kopuł przełącznikowych dostarczyła wyniki dotyczące zależności pomiędzy zmiennością zrealizowaną a wielkością obrotów wybranych spółek notowanych w indeksie ATX na Giełdzie Wiedeńskiej. W pierwszym reżimie została wybrana asymetryczna kopuła z dodatnimi zależnościami w ogonach. Natomiast w drugim reżimie została wybrana kopuła Gaussa, która jest symetryczna oraz łączy zmienne niezależne w ogonach. W przypadku wszystkich badanych spółek prawdopodobieństwo przebywania w pierwszym reżimie okazało się znacznie większe. Taki wynik sugeruje, iż na rynku istnieje zależność dla ekstremalnych wartości między zmiennością zrealizowaną a wielkością obrotów. Uzyskane wyniki sugerują, że na silę zależności nie ma prawdopodobnie wpływu wielkość spółki, a istotnym czynnikiem jest tu przypuszczalnie branża, do której spółka przynależy.

19

Two deficits and economic growth: case of CEE countries in transition

Gurgul H., Lach Ł.

AGH Managerial Economics

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2012

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nr 12

79--108

EN

The main goal of this contribution was to provide evidence on the dynamic interdependencies between economic growth and budget and trade deficits in ten new EU members in transition in the last decade. It is worth to note, that besides establishing directions of causal relationships this paper also derived some suggestions on signs of the dynamic dependencies analyzed. Outcomes of this paper confirmed that the budget deficits were significantly slowing down the GDP growth rates in case of new EU-members in transition. In addition, these deficits had negative impact on the convergence process of examined countries towards the highly developed European economies. The evidence supporting adverse causality was considerably weaker. The empirical results allow to claim that in the period under study there was a unidirectional negative Granger causality from budget deficits to trade deficits. Therefore, in case of CEE economies in transition the twin deficit hypothesis was not the case.

PL

Głównym celem tego artykułu było dostarczenie dowodów na istnienie dynamicznych współzależności pomiędzy wzrostem ekonomicznym a deficytem budżetowym i handlowym w przypadku dziesięciu nowych członków Unii Europejskiej będących w fazie transformacji. Warto podkreślić, że oprócz ustalenia kierunków zależności przyczynowych w artykule tym podane zostały też sugestie dotyczące znaków badanych związków dynamicznych. W świetle wyników empirycznych deficyt budżetowy powodował poważne spowolnienie gospodarcze, jeśli chodzi o stopę wzrostu PKB nowych członków Unii Europejskiej w fazie transformacji. Ponadto deficyt spowalniał konwergencję gospodarek badanych krajów do gospodarek wysoko rozwiniętych państw Unii Europejskiej. Przyczynowość w odwrotnym kierunku okazała się być istotnie słabsza. Badania wykazały również, że w badanym okresie istniała jednokierunkowa zależność ujemna o charakterze przyczynowym w kierunku od deficytu budżetowego do deficytu handlowego. W przypadku państw Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej będących w fazie transformacji hipoteza o bliźniaczych deficytach nie znalazła zatem potwierdzenia w wynikach empirycznych.

20

Responses of the Warsaw Stock Exchange to the U.S. macroeconomic data announcements

Gurgul H., Suliga M., Wójtowicz T.

AGH Managerial Economics

|

2012

|

nr 12

41--59

EN

The relationship between information flows and changes in asset prices is one of the main issues of financial economics. A fundamental assumption of the market efficiency hypothesis is that investors react to new information as it arrives. This reaction results in price changes that reflect investors' expectations concerning the level of risk and rates of return. The main aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of U.S. macroeconomic data announcements about inflation, industrial production and unemployment on the trading volume and prices of the most liquid stocks listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in the period 2004-2011. Using event study methodology we determine when and how forecasts and investor expectations regarding future market conditions changes under the influence of incoming macroeconomic data on the U.S. economy. This methodology also allows us to describe the strength, direction and length of the impact of announcements about these macroeconomic indicators.

PL

Związek pomiędzy napływem informacji a zmianami cen papierów wartościowych jest jednym z głównych zagadnień ekonometrii finansowej. Podstawowym założeniem hipotezy efektywności rynku finansowego jest przekonanie o szybkiej reakcji inwestorów w odpowiedzi na napływające informacje. Reakcja ta prowadzi do zmiany cen walorów odzwierciedlających oczekiwania inwestorów odnośnie do poziomu ryzyka i stóp zwrotu. Celem artykułu jest zbadanie wpływu ogłoszeń danych makroekonomicznych dotyczących inflacji, produkcji przemysłowej i bezrobocia w USA na wielkość obrotów i ceny akcji największych spółek notowanych na GPW w Warszawie w latach 2004-2011. Przeprowadzone badania wykorzystujące metodologię analizy zdarzeń pozwalają ocenić, kiedy i jak pod wpływem napływających danych dotyczących gospodarki USA zmieniają się prognozy oraz oczekiwania inwestorów dotyczące przyszłej sytuacji na rynku Umożliwiają one również ocenę siły, kierunku i długości oddziaływania ogłoszeń każdego z badanych wskaźników.