The article contains descriptive statistics on rainfall in an area of the southern part of the last ice age in Europe, and which now comprises the north-eastern part of the Poland. The study covers the period of 1981-2010. The sums of the annual and monthly precipitation were calculated, while years and months were evaluated in relation to the multi-annual and monthly averages. The frequency of daily precipitations was also determined. Values of SPI (Standarized Precipitation Index) were calculated together with the values of the Selianinov Index, which measures the environmental aspect of precipitation. The average annual rainfall showed a spatial heterogeneity in the region from 700.1 mm (Elblag in the north-west) to 555.3 mm (Mława) in the east and south-east. The greatest precipitation occurred in the last decade of the analysed period of thirty years. However, statistical analysis shows no significant trend change in precipitation during this period. The number of years with sums of precipitation below 75% of the normal turned out to be very small. In the annual cycle, summer precipitation prevailed. On a monthly basis, the averages sometimes exceeded the multiyear averages by as much as 200%, while extreme lows in monthly precipitation reached levels below 25% of the long-term averages. The calculated value of the SPI indicated that the most common drought conditions occurred in May and June; such droughts did not occur in April and July. The Selianinov Index indicates that the least favorable hydrothermal conditions occur in April and May, while the most favorable conditions occur in August and September.
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Subsequence of weather elements was estimated using linear correlation method. For analyzes, the five weather elements were take under consideration: mean monthly temperature, extreme monthly temperatures (min and max), monthly sums of precipitation, as well as thermal weather seasons duration. The best correlation occurred between average temperatures of winter’s months. Only a few causes proved correlations between more far months within the years. There was pointed out a close negative correlation between duration of the succeeding seasons as well as between winter and summer duration.
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Characteristic o f precipitation conditions of two experimental stations Bałcyny and Tomaszkowo of Warmia Mazury University in Olsztyn is presented in the paper. Analysis was made on the base of daily sum of precipitation during 1996-2005 period. Frequency of months and seasons with deficit or excess of precipitation according to Kaczorowska’s criterion, frequency of non-precipitation day sequences > 10 , > 15 and 20 days in particular months during April-Octomber and periods May-June, July-August, September-October and April-September were taken into consideration. Numbers of days with precipitation ≥ 0.1 mm , ≥ 1.0 mm and ≥ 10.0 mm was analyzed also. Date obtained indicate differentiation of precipitation condition in investigated stations located in Mazuria Lakeland.
W pracy zamieszczono analizę stopnia zaspokajania zapotrzebowania na wodę ziemniaka (gleby lekkie) i buraka cukrowego (gleby średnie i ciężkie) na obszarze Polski Północno-Wschodniej, wykonaną na podstawie danych meteorologicznych dotyczących miesięcznych sum opadu, w latach 1971-2000. Wykazano, iż największe ryzyko uprawy spowodowane znaczną częstością niedostosowania sum opadu do potrzeb ziemniaka i buraka cukrowego, występuje w północno-zachodniej części analizowanego obszaru. W wieloleciu w przypadku obydwu gatunków częste okazały się miesiące, w których występowały niedobory opadów, chociaż w przypadku buraka stwierdzono również dużą częstość miesięcy o znaczących nadmiarach w stosunku do potrzeb gatunku.
EN
The paper presents results of analysis of the effects of water supply on potato (light soils) and sugar beet (medium heavy and heavy soils) grown in northeastern Poland based on meteorological dataset (monthly sums of precipitation) covering the period from 1971 to 2000. The findings suggest that the highest risks of extreme situations (total excesses of precipitation and its deficits) with respect to potato and sugar beet demands occurred in northwestern part of analyzed region. Our analysis shows that precipitation deficits during critical periods of growing seasons were the main problem, though sugar beet was negatively affected by both excesses and deficits of precipitation.
W pracy dokonano analizy warunków opadowych na obszarze Polski Północno-Wschodniej w aspekcie wymagań wodnych grochu (gleby lekkie) i bobiku (gleby średnie i ciężkie), wykorzystując dane meteorologiczne dotyczące miesięcznych sum opadów w latach 1971-2000. Generalnie, na całym obszarze, od kwietnia do czerwca notowano więcej sytuacji z ekstremalnymi niedoborami opadów w stosunku do zapotrzebowania bobiku i grochu, natomiast w lipcu - więcej przypadków z ekstremalnymi nadmiarami. W kwietniu i maju stopień ryzyka pojawienia się sytuacji z ekstremalnymi opadami był najwyższy w północno-zachodniej części regionu i malał w kierunku wschodu i południowego wschodu. W czerwcu i lipcu ryzyko występowania sytuacji ekstremalnych było w miarę równomiernie rozłożone w całym regionie i wynosiło od 20 do 40%.
EN
The paper presents results of analysis of the effects of water supply on pea (light soils) and horse bean (medium heavy and heavy soils) grown in northeastern Poland based on meteorological dataset (monthly sums of precipitation) covering the period from 1971 to 2000. The general findings suggest that the highest risks of extreme deficits of precipitation with respect to pea and horse bean demands occurred in the period from April to June, however, the extreme excesses occurred in July. The results also suggest that the distributions of precipitation from April to May were most unfavorable in the northern part of analyzed region and improved south-eastward, but in July the risk of the occurrence of extreme situation was even all over the region (20-40%).
W pracy przedstawiono częstości występowania niekorzystnych sytuacji opadowych (do których zaliczono nadmiary i niedobory opadów większe od podwójnego odchylenia standardowego) obliczonych w procentach lat z okresu 30-lecia 1971-2000, w Polsce Północno-Wschodniej, w stosunku do zapotrzebowania żyta na wodę na glebach lekkich oraz pszenicy ozimej na glebach średnich i ciężkich. Na wszystkich badanych glebach najmniej korzystne warunki opadowe dla badanych roślin występowały w maju, przy czym na glebach lekkich, na większości badanego obszaru, częstości występowania niekorzystnych sytuacji opadowych dla żyta wynosiły od 45% do ponad 60%. Na glebach średnich w tym miesiącu (dla pszenicy ozimej) niekorzystne sytuacje opadowe o częstości występowania od ponad 35% do ponad 40% wystąpiły w zachodniej i północnej części obszaru. Na glebach ciężkich średnie wieloletnie częstości występowania niekorzystnych opadów dla pszenicy ozimej były o około 5-10% mniejsze niż na analogicznych obszarach na glebach średnich.
EN
The paper presents results of analysis of the effects of water supply on rye (light soils) and winter wheat (medium heavy and heavy soils) in northeastern Poland based on meteorological dataset (monthly sums of precipitation) covering the period from 1971 to 2000. The highest risk of extreme situations (total surplus of precipitation and its deficits) with respect to cereal species demands occurred in May irrespective of the soil type. The frequency of occurrence of extreme situation was estimated at 45-60 % on light soils. For winter wheat, cultivated on medium soils, unfavorable precipitation values of the frequency from over 35 % to over 40 % were noticed in northwestern and western part of the study area. Long term mean frequencies of unfavourable precipitation were lower by 5-10% on heavy than on medium soils.
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On the base of meteorological data obtained from Ostrołęka measure point (years 1951-2000), the agrometeorological characteristics of north-eastern part of Mazovia region were made. It was pointed out that this region seems to be classified as typical in Poland, but most thermal harsh all over Mazovia region. Mean average air temperature amounted (7,4°C ), but growing season lasted rather no so long, only 211 days. The last occurrenees of ground frosts were recorded until ends of April. Precipitations totals were suitable for crops, and amounted about 568,7 mm. Drought periods were 110 frequent. Even those shortest, more then ten days continuously, occurred only twice a year.
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On the basis of 8 years (1993-2000) data from Research Station Wrocikowo at north part of Poland the investigations on the impact of meteorological factors on yields of medium-early varieties (Glad, Kolia, Maryna) of potato were conducted. The role of independent variables played: mean temperatures, sum of precipitation, solar energy and sum of sunshine hours as well as insufficiency of air humidity. The variability of yields of potato ranged from 179 dt/ha to 729 dt/ha and it was caused by different weather condition during the vegetation periods. It was found the significant simple correlation between mean temperatures of July and August and yield of Maryna variety. Sum of precipitation in July correlated significantly with yields of Kolia variety as well as sum of precipitation in August correlated with yields of Maryna variety. Significant multiple regression occurred in case of yields of Glada variety. The equation of regression consisted of variables: mean temperatures sum of precipitation, solar energy and sum of sunshine hours.
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Fungi diseases are the most serious threat to winter wheat crops in Poland causing losses of yield of up to 25%. Weather factors affect the types and intensity of disease outbreaks. The paper contains analysis of the impact of pre-onset as well as contemporaneous weather conditions such as temperature (both average and max/min), rainfall, and relative humidity on the frequency of infections caused by following pathogens: powdery mildew (Erysiph e graminis), septoria blotch (Mycosphaerella graminicola st. kon. Septoria tritici), glume blotch (Phaeosphaeria nodorum st. kon. Stagnospora nodorum , syn. Septoria nodorum), brown rust (Puccinia recondita f. sp. tritici), eyespot (Pseudocercosporella herpotrichoides), foot rot (Fusarium spp. and other). Several multiple stepwise (Backward Removal Method) regression models were estimated using linear functional form to examine how weather factors impact the wheat crop vulnerability to those pathogens. The results of this study contribute to our ability to forecast the magnitude and characteristics of disease outbreaks in the future based on observed meteorological data, thus enabling us to take optimal protective measures.
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