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Assessing the Suitability of Habitat for Wintering Siberian Cranes (Leucogeranus leucogeranus) at Different Water Levels in Poyang Lake Area, China

Chen B., Cui P., Xu H., Lu X., Lei J., Wu Y., Shao M., Ding H., Wu J., Cao M., Liu G.

Polish Journal of Ecology

2016

Vol. 64, nr 1

84--97

Poyang lake area (1000–3246 km2) is the most important wintering ground for the globally critically endangered Siberian crane (Leucogeranus leucogeranus). More than 98% of the Siberian crane population overwinters in Poyang lake area. Remote-sensing and the spatial analysis tools of geographic information system (GIS) technology were used to assess the suitability of the habitat for wintering Siberian cranes in Poyang lake area at different water levels. The results demonstrated that as the water level increased within the range of 7.93–12.16 m, the area of unsuitable habitat increased gradually, but the areas of good, fair and poor habitat decreased. When the water level reached 12.16 m, good habitat for Siberian cranes covered an area of only 3005 ha, which is only 0.93% of the area of the total lake area. When human disturbance factors including vehicles, fishing and construction activities were added to the analysis of the current distribution of Siberian crane habitat, the results again indicated that the area of good habitat decreased with an increase in water level within the range of 7.93–12.16 m. Additionally, the areas of good habitat occurred primarily in the region of two national nature reserves, which are the Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve and the Nanjishan National Nature Reserve. Our study provides important data and an important theoretical basis for water level management and nature reserve construction in Poyang lake area.

The potential effects of climate change on suitable habitat for the Sichuan Hill Partridge (Arborophila rufipectus, Boulton) based on the maximum entropy modeling

Lei J., Xu H., Cui P., Guang Q., Ding H.

Polish Journal of Ecology

2014

Vol. 62, nr 4

771--787

Climate change is considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity in future decades. Learning about the habitat preferences and geographical distributions of endangered species is critical for conservation management and planning in the context of climate change. This study investigated the effects of climate change on suitable habitat for Arborophila rufipectus Boulton, an endangered species that is endemic to southwest China. We used the known presence records for this species and a series of environmental variable layers to develop a predictive distribution model using maximum entropy modelling; this model was then used to assess the effects of future climate change on suitable habitat for this species. Our study indicated that climate change might have significant effects on suitable habitat for this species. By 2050, under a no-dispersal hypothesis, more than four-fifths of the habitat currently assessed as suitable would be lost, and the mean latitude of suitable habitat would shift northward by more than 100 kilometres. Based on this model, climate change would also aggravate habitat fragmentation. Under a full-dispersal hypothesis, all four climate trajectories developed by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (Ccma) and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) present similar trends: the area of suitable habitat is predicted to increase substantially, and habitat fragmentation would be mitigated under the two climate trajectories developed by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). Finally, we offer some practical proposals for the future conservation of this endangered species.