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Scenarios for the Development of Hydrogen Technology in Mobility in Europe

Brdulak Anna, Chaberek-Kałużniak Grażyna, Jagodziński Jacek

Prace Komisji Geografii Komunikacji PTG

2024

nr 27(2)

23--32

This article aims to compare the time horizon of the EU hydrogen mobility policy with the potential commercialisation of this technology based on the law of market diffusion of innovation. There is growing discussion about using hydrogen as an alternative to fossil fuels in cars. This direction is further supported by EU policy and initiatives to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2035. Alongside the development of electromobility, there is an intensification of research into technologies that will allow the widespread use of hydrogen-fuelled cars. The technology could become a future solution, primarily due to the zero-emission nature of the vehicles. However, the commercial potential of hydrogen-fuelled cars is a pertinent question. Can the interest in this technology grow sufficiently, and if so, when will it capture the early majority of the market? When can we expect hydrogen to gain a significant market share in the mobility sector? The Bass model, a reliable tool for forecasting, was used to answer these questions. The analysis of the diffusion of this innovation indicates that it is in its infancy, as its diffusion couldn’t be predicted within the time horizon adopted by the EU.