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1 Journal of Water and Land Development

1 2020

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The analysis of spatial variability of precipitation in Poland in the multiyears 1981–2010

Grzywna Antoni, Bochniak Andrzej, Ziernicka-Wojtaszek Agnieszka, Krużel Joanna, Jóźwiakowski Krzysztof, Wałęga Andrzej, Ciupak Agnieszka, Mazur Andrzej, Obroślak Radomir, Serafin Artur

Journal of Water and Land Development

2020

no. 46

105--111

The purpose of the paper is to analyze the spatial variability of precipitation in Poland in the years 1981–2010. The average annual rainfall was 607 mm. Precipitation in Poland is characterized by high spatial and temporal variability. The lowest annual precipitation was recorded in the central part of the country, where they equaled 500 mm. The highest annual precipitation totals were determined in the south, equaling 970 mm. The average precipitation in the summer half-year is 382 mm (63% of the annual total). On the basis of data from 53 climate stations, maps were made of the spatial distribution of precipitation for the period of the year and winter and summer half-year. The kriging method was used to map rainfall distribution in Poland. In the case study, cross-validation was used to compare the prediction performances of three periods. Kriging, with exponential type of semivariogram, gave the best performance in the statistical sense. Their application is justices especially in areas where landform is very complex. In accordance with the assumptions, the mean prediction error (ME), mean standardized prediction error (MSE), and root mean-square standardized prediction error (RMSSE) values are approximately zero, and root-mean-square prediction error (RMSE) and average standard error (ASE) reach values well below 100.