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2 Annals of Computer Science and Information Systems

2 2024

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Learning from the COVID-19 Pandemic to Improve Critical Infrastructure Resilience using Temporal Fusion Transformers

Jenko Jakob, Costa Joao Pita, Vladušič Daniel, Bavčar Urban, Čabarkapa Radoš

Annals of Computer Science and Information Systems

2024

Vol. 39

375–-384

During the COVID-19 pandemic, traditional demand prediction models drastically failed mostly due to altered consumption patterns. Accurate forecasts are essential for ensuring grid stability. This paper analyzes the performance of the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) model during the COVID-19 pandemic aiming to build resilient demand prediction models. Through detailed analysis, we identify which features may contribute to improved performance during large-scale events such as pandemics. During lockdowns, consumption patterns change significantly, leading to substantial errors in existing demand prediction models. We explore the impact of features such as mobility and special day considerations (e.g., lockdown days) on enhancing model performance. We demonstrate that periodic updates on a monthly basis make the model more resilient to changes in consumption patterns during future pandemics. Moreover, we show how improvements in prediction accuracy translate to real-world benefits, such as enhanced grid stability and economic advantages, including reduced energy waste. Additionally, we discuss the implications for energy-critical infrastructure, considering disruptive scenarios like future pandemics.

A framework for enabling ex-ante social impact assessment of project-based technological solutions: the case of Remote Infrastructure Inspection

Zherdev Nikolay, Klein Olivier, Sconfienza Umberto, Gerber Philippe, Vladušič Daniel, Butler Jethro, Pasic Aljosa

Annals of Computer Science and Information Systems

2024

Vol. 39

513--524

Social Impact Assessment (SIA) is the systematic examination and management of both the intended and unintended social consequences, encompassing positive and negative outcomes, resulting from designed interventions (such as policies, plans, or projects) and any social changes instigated by these interventions. In this paper, we present a strategy to define and validate social impact indicators incorporating participatory approaches into the general impact assessment framework. The paper reports on the first results of an ongoing SIA developed for the evaluation of the impact produced by a Remote Infrastructure Inspection (RII) toolset developed to increase the resilience of critical infrastructures within the framework of the SUNRISE Horizon Europe project. Several stages of the indicators' selection procedure were proposed to ensure the validity of the selection. Our approach is then applied to identify social impact subcategories within the RII Toolset, aimed to introduce less effort-consuming ways of inspecting typically large infrastructures.