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Recent sea surface temperature trends and future scenarios for the Red Sea

Shaltout Mohamed

Oceanologia

2019

No. 61 (4)

484--504

The current paper analyses the recent trends of Red Sea surface temperature (SST) using 0.25° daily gridded Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) data from 1982 to 2016. The results of 3 different GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) model simulations are used to project the sea surface temperature (hereafter called Tos) under the four representative concentration pathway scenarios through 2100. The current research indicates that the spatially annual mean (from 1982 to 2016) Red Sea surface temperature is 27.88 ± 2.14°C, with a significant warming trend of 0.029°C yr-1. The annual SST variability during the spring/autumn seasons is two times higher than during the winter/summer seasons. The Red Sea surface temperature is correlated with 13 different studied parameters, the most dominant of which are mean sea level pressure, air temperature at 2 m above sea level, cross-coast wind stress, sensible heat flux, and Indian Summer Monsoon Index. For the Red Sea, the GFDL-CM3 simulation was found to produce the most accurate current SST among the studied simulations and was then used to project future scenarios. Analysis of GFDL-CM3 results showed that Tos in the Red Sea will experience significant warming trends with an uncertainty ranging from 0.6°C century-1 to 3.2°C century-1according to the scenario used and the seasonal variation.