Soil erosion is closely related to climate changes, because changes to temperature and precipitation regimes may alter the erosivity of rainfall. The present study aimed to project future soil erosion phenomena in the Vjosa River Basin (VRB) using climate projections under the Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. SimCLIM model was used to perform the climate projection for the years 2035 and 2050, based on historical temperature and precipitation data (2000–2015). This investigation was carried out by using Erosion Potential Method EPM to estimate the effects of climate change on soil erosion in Vjosa River Basin, Albania. Results show an increase in average min and max annual temperature for both scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5 by the end of 2050. The evaluation of the monthly precipitations for all RCPs reveals a likely decrease in summer precipitation, and a slight positive trend of winter precipitation for all time periods up to 2050. An increase in terms of eroded material and specific eroded material was estimated from the results of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Thus, it can be stated that the study area has and will have a moderate erosion risk under these climate conditions.
Soil erosion is one of the most important phenomena affecting land composition and settlement. Among all natural causes of soil erosion such as rainfall intensity, temperature and wind, the human activity; massive deforestation and intensive agriculture, including the latest climate changes are considered as very important factors, especially nowadays. Thus, calculating the soil erosion coefficient appears very important in order to prevent the phenomena. Many methods are used to calculate such coefficient but in the presented research, the Erosion Potential Method was chosen. In this study, eight watersheds in southeastern Albania were evaluated. Results show that erosion is present in all considered watersheds. In one case (Panariti watershed) the erosion coefficient was very high; excessive, while in others it varies from heavy to very slight erosion. In conclusion, it can be stated that the Erosion Potential Method can be applied in the Albanian contest, same as in other neighbor countries. The results from Panariti, Roshani and Gianci should be further investigated due to the high quantity of soil eroded.
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