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Bezpieczeństwo paliwowe Polski w roku 2023 i latach następnych. Analiza Instytutu Polityki Energetycznej im. Ignacego Łukasiewicza

Ruszel Mariusz, Ogarek Przemysław

Napędy i Sterowanie

2023

R. 25, nr 2

100--101

W bieżącym roku, jak i w latach następnych, rynek paliw gotowych znacznie się zmieni. Przyczyn tego jest wiele i są one od siebie niezależne. Począwszy od wojny na Ukrainie, która skutkuje objęciem agresora, czyli Rosji (i wspierającej ją Białorusi), sankcjami, po zmiany właścicielskie operatorów terminali paliwowych i decyzje regulacyjne Komisji Europejskiej. Wszystko może mieć wpływ na poziom zaspokojenia polskiego rynku w paliwa gotowe.

Analysis of the Hungarian gas sector : present situation and future prospects

Ogarek Przemysław

Energy Policy Studies

2019

No. 1 (3)

59--69

The main aim of this article is to determine the level of security of supply of the Hungarian natural gas sector and to provide forecasts of the potential sources of oil imports by 2025. The research questions posed by the author relate to self-sufficiency of the domestic gas sector, a high level of dependence on supplies from the east, the lack of diversification of suppliers in the market, and the impact of the possibilities of re-gasification of underground natural gas storage facilities to improve energy security in Hungary. The research hypothesis of the paper was that the level of self-sufficiency of the gas sphere will remain at a constantly low level, that the security volume will decrease until new gas supply routes are established, and that the role of underground gas storage facilities as a result of highly probable loss of transport through the territory of Ukraine will be crucial. In order to solve the research problem and obtain answers to the questions raised, the following energy indices were used: self-sufficiency index, Herfindahl Hirschman index, Residual Supply Index, and the ratio of underground storage capacity of raw material to quarterly demand for fuel. The source of information and data used, due to the lack of many current studies on Hungary's energy security, are reports of national and European energy organizations, as well as reliable industry portals rich in current information. The conclusions of the analysis show that Hungary is a country highly dependent on imports from the East and that its security of supply will decrease significantly as a result of the political turmoil between Ukraine and Russia. Underground storage facilities will be responsible for maintaining a safe gas volume in the demand of the domestic economy in the near future. And the more distant future of the Hungarian gas industry will continue to be connected mainly with the eastern exporter. This will be facilitated by the Turkish Stream connection and possible supplies from Nord Stream II.