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1
Jak lokalnie zmniejszyć ryzyko powodzi?
Kundzewicz Z. W., Konieczny R.
Przegląd Komunalny
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2018
|
nr 2
13--16
PL
Zwykło się uważać, że państwo jest odpowiedzialne za ograniczanie ryzyka powodziowego. Jednak doświadczenie pokazuje, że takie rozwiązanie w demokratycznym państwie nie jest skuteczne, a proponowane rozwiązania nie gwarantują bezpieczeństwa powodziowego.
2
Content available remote Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland
Piniewski M., Marcinkowski P, Kundzewicz Z. W.
Acta Geophysica
|
2018
|
Vol. 66, no. 3
347--360
EN
The issue of trend detection in long time series of river flow records is of vast theoretical interest and considerable practical relevance. Water management is based on the assumption of stationarity; hence, it is crucial to check whether taking this assumption is justified. The objective of this study is to analyse long-term trends in selected river flow indices in small- and medium-sized catchments with relatively unmodified flow regime (semi-natural catchments) in Poland. The examined indices describe annual and seasonal average conditions as well as annual extreme conditions—low and high flows. The special focus is on the spatial analysis of trends, carried out on a comprehensive, representative data set of flow gauges. The present paper is timely, as no spatially comprehensive studies (i.e. covering the entire Poland or its large parts) on trend detection in time series of river flow have been done in the recent 15 years or so. The results suggest that there is a strong random component in the river flow process, the changes are weak and the spatial pattern is complex. Yet, the results of trend detection in different indices of river flow in Poland show that there exists a spatial divide that seems to hold quite generally for various indices (annual, seasonal, as well as low and high flow). Decreases of river flow dominate in the northern part of the country and increases usually in the southern part. Stations in the central part show mostly ‘no trend’ results. However, the spatial gradient is apparent only for the data for the period 1981–2016 rather than for 1956–2016. It seems also that the magnitude of increases of river flow is generally lower than that of decreases.
3
Content available remote Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland
Kundzewicz Z. W., Piniewski M., Mezghani A., Okruszko T., Pińskwar I., Kardel I., Hov Ø., Szcześniak M., Szwed M., Benestad R. E, Marcinkowski P., Graczyk D., Dobler A., Førland E. J., O’Keefe J., Choryński A., Parding K. M., Haugen J. E.
Acta Geophysica
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2018
|
Vol. 66, no. 6
1509--1523
EN
The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.
4
Content available Projections of changes in heavy precipitation in the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains
Pińskwar I., Kundzewicz Z. W., Choryński A.
Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
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2017
|
Vol. 5, Iss. 2
21--30
EN
Heavy and/or long-lasting precipitation events in the Tatra Mountains and their northern foothills may cause floods that propagate downstream in the Vistula River and inundate large areas of Poland. In a warmer climate, future precipitation extremes could be higher than they are today, hence the flood risk potential is likely to grow. Therefore, assessment of these future changes and adaptation to changes in flood risk are of considerable interest and importance. In this study, seven global climate models were used to get insight into a range of changes in the characteristics of mean and heavy precipitation: this was done for two climate scenarios – A1B and A2 of the SRES family. With the help of the so-called delta-change method and based on responses from global climate models, projections were made for 11 precipitation stations in the region. Analyses were made of various indices, such as annual totals, maximum 24 h, 5-day; 10-day, monthly maximum sums of precipitation and also numbers of days with intense precipitation equal or above the thresholds of 30 and 50 mm per day. It was found that all GCM models under examination projected an increase in mean annual precipitation totals as well as in heavy precipitation in the future time horizon studied here (2080-2100).
5
Content available remote What can we learn from the projections of changes of flow patterns? Results from Polish case studies
Piniewski M., Meresa H. K., Romanowicz R., Osuch M, Szcześniak M., Kardel I., Okruszko T., Mezghani A., Kundzewicz Z. W.
Acta Geophysica
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2017
|
Vol. 65, no. 4
809--827
EN
River flow projections for two future time horizons and RCP 8.5 scenario, generated by two projects (CHASE-PL and CHIHE) in the Polish-Norwegian Research Programme, were compared. The projects employed different hydrological models over different spatial domains. The semi-distributed, process-based, SWAT model was used in the CHASE-PL project for the entire Vistula and Odra basins area, whilst the lumped, conceptual, HBV model was used in the CHIHE project for eight Polish catchments, for which the comparison study was made. Climate projections in both studies originated from the common EURO-CORDEX dataset, but they were different, e.g. due to different bias correction approaches. Increases in mean annual and seasonal flows were projected in both studies, yet the magnitudes of changes were largely different, in particular for the lowland catchments in the far future. The HBV-based increases were significantly higher in the latter case than the SWAT-based increases in all seasons except winter. Uncertainty in projections is high and creates a problem for practitioners.
6
Content available remote Changes of snow cover in Poland
Szwed M., Pińskwar I., Kundzewicz Z. W., Graczyk D., Mezghani A.
Acta Geophysica
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2017
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Vol. 65, no. 1
65--76
EN
The present paper examines variability of characteristics of snow cover (snow cover depth, number of days with snow cover and dates of beginning and end of snow cover) in Poland. The study makes use of a set of 43 long time series of observation records from the stations in Poland, from 1952 to 2013. To describe temporal changes in snow cover characteristics, the intervals of 1952–1990 and of 1991–2013 are compared and trends in analysed data are sought (e.g., using the Mann–Kendall test). Observed behaviour of time series of snow-related variables is complex and not easy to interpret, for instance because of the location of the research area in the zone of transitional moderate climate, where strong variability of climate events is one of the main attributes. A statistical link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the snow cover depth, as well as the number of snow cover days is found.
7
Content available remote Changes of flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains
Kundzewicz Z. W., Stoffel M., Ruiz-Villanueva V., Ballesteros-Cánovas J. A., Wyżga B., Niedźwiedź T., Kaczka R., Łupikasza E., Spyt B., Janecka K., Pińskwar I., Choryński A., Zawiejska J., Mikuś P, Hajdukiewicz H.
Acta Geophysica
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2017
|
Vol. 65, no. 4
799--807
EN
The present paper reviews selected outcomes of the FLORIST project devoted to flood risk in the region of the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains in Poland and summarizes novel results. The project encompassed theoretical, field, and modeling work. It was focused around observation-based hydroclimatology; projections for the future; dendrogeomorphology; as well as influence of transport of large wood on fluvial processes. The project improved understanding and interpreting changes in high-flow frequency and magnitude as well as changes in flood risk in the region, related to the presence of large wood in mountain streams. A unique database on past episodes of intense precipitation and flooding was created, harnessing multiple sources. The project showed that the analysis of tree rings and wood logs can offer useful information, complementing and considerably enriching the knowledge of river floods in the region of northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains. Retrospective and scenario-defined modeling of selected past fluvial events in the region was also performed.
8
Content available Urban Flooding and Sustainable Land Management – Polish Perspective
Kundzewicz Z. W., Kowalczak P
Problemy Ekorozwoju
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2014
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Vol. 9, nr 2
131--138
EN
There have been many events connected with damaging abundance of water in Polish towns in recent decades. Some of them have been caused by flood waves on rivers passing through towns. Others have been caused by intense precipitation overwhelming the capacity of storm sewer systems. A brief review of the topical area of urban floods in Poland in last decades is provided. Mechanisms responsible for increase of flood risk are discussed in a systematic manner. In result of multiple mechanisms, the frequency of inundations has increased and is likely to increase further. Examples of sustainable management issues related to floods are reviewed. Flood protection and flood preparedness are examined in the sustainability context.
PL
W ostatnich latach w Polsce miało miejsce wiele niebezpiecznych zdarzeń związanych z niszczącą siłą wody. Niektóre z nich były spowodowane falami powodziowymi płynącymi przez mijające miasta rzeki. Inne uwarunkowane były intensywnymi opadami przekraczającymi pojemność systemów kanalizacji deszczowej. W tej pracy dokonano przeglądu tego typu zdarzeń z okresu ostatnich kilku dekad. Omówiono i usystematyzowano mechanizmy przyczyniające się do obserwowanego wzrostu zagrożenia powodziowego. Przedstawiono przykłady zrównoważonego zarzadzania w kontekście powodziowym. Przeanalizowano także istniejącą ochronę przeciwpowodziową i poziom przygotowania na przyjęcie powodzi.
9
Content available remote Adapting flood preparedness tools to changing flood risk conditions : the situation in Poland
Kundzewicz Z. W.
Oceanologia
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2014
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No. 56 (2)
385--407
EN
Flooding is the most destructive natural hazard in the Baltic Sea Basin in general and in Poland in particular. The notion includes floods from rivers and mountain torrents, as well as floods from sea surges in coastal areas, and floods from sewage systems. There have been several large floods in Poland in the last century and in recent decades, with damage exceeding 1% of the Polish GDP. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the flood risk in Poland are reviewed and observations and projections of changes in the flood hazard in the country are discussed. Furthermore, flood defences and flood preparedness systems in Poland are examined, with particular reference to the European Union (EU) Floods Directive, which is being implemented in Poland, an EU country. Finally, the public debate on flood risk and flood preparedness is reviewed.
10
Zagrożenia związane z wodą
Kundzewicz Z. W., Iwanicki J., Kindler J., Gromiec M., Matczak P.
Gospodarka Wodna
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2014
|
Nr 10
353--358
PL
Artykuł stanowi wprowadzenie do zbioru pięciu artykułów przedstawiających zagrożenia związane z wodą. Jeśli poziom wody w ciekach czy zbiornikach układa się w granicach stanów średnich, a jakość wody jest zadowalająca, wydaje się, że tak musi być. Czasem jednak zdarza się niszczący nadmiar wód, częściej - deficyt wód, a bardzo często - woda nie spełnia norm jakości. Oprócz tych zagrożeń istotne są zagrożenia instytucjonalne, związane z niewłaściwą gospodarką wodną, które prowadzą do problemów z wdrożeniem prawodawstwa UE.
EN
The articles constitutes an introduction to a series of five articles presenting water-related threats. If the level of water in watercotirses or reservoirs remains within medium stages and the quality of water is satisfactory, it seems that this is how it should be. However, sometimes we deal with a destructive excess of waters, more often - with water shortages, and very often - with water that does not satisfy the quality norms. Besides those threats, also institutional ones, related to improper water management, are important as they lead to problems with the EU law implementation.
11
Zagrożenia instytucjonalne gospodarki wodnej i proponowane przeciwdziałania
Kindler J., Iwanicki J., Kundzewicz Z. W., Matczak P., Miłaszewski R., Żelazo J.
Gospodarka Wodna
|
2014
|
Nr 10
359--365
PL
Można wyróżnić liczne zagrożenia instytucjonalne związane z gospodarką wodną w Polsce. Problemem jest anachroniczna interpretacja koncepcji gospodarki wodnej, która nie przystaje do Ramowej Dyrektywy Wodnej Unii Europejskiej. Słabe planowanie, niewystarczające finansowanie i kontrola użytkowników, oraz odstępstwa od reguły gospodarki zlewniowej są wyraźnymi niedostatkami gospodarki wodnej. Potrzebne jest lepsze zdefiniowanie zasadniczych kompetencji i szczegółowa alokacja zadań, a także zapewnienie stabilnego finansowania. Zagrożeniem jest brak kadr fachowych dla nowoczesnej gospodarki wodnej i ograniczony dostęp do informacji.
EN
We can list numerous institutional threats related to the water management in Poland. The problem lies in anachronistic interpretation of the water management, which does not match the Water Framework Directive of the European Union. Poor planning, insufficient financing and control over users, exceptions to the catchment-based management principle constitute visible shortcomings of the water management. We need better definition of basic competencies and detailed allocation of tasks, as well as stable financing. Lack of professional personnel needed in the modern water management and limited access to information also constitute a threat.
12
Content available remote Floods at the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains — A Polish-Swiss research project
Kundzewicz Z.W, Pińskwar I., Choryński A., Stoffel M, Ruiz-Villanueva V, Ballesteros-Canovas J.A, Kaczka R.J, Niedźwiedź T, Łupikasza E, Czajka B., Małarzewski Ł., Janecka K, Wyżga B, Mikuś P.
Acta Geophysica
|
2014
|
Vol. 62, no. 3
620--641
EN
The present paper introduces the topical area of the Polish–Swiss research project FLORIST (Flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains), informs on its objectives, and reports on initial results. The Tatra Mountains are the area of the highest precipitation in Poland and largely contribute to flood generation. The project is focused around four competence clusters: observation-based climatology, model-based climate change projections and impact assessment, dendrogeomorphology, and impact of large wood debris on fluvial processes. The knowledge generated in the FLORIST project is likely to have impact on understanding and interpretation of flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains, in the past, present, and future. It can help solving important practical problems related to flood risk reduction strategies and flood preparedness.
13
Content available remote Changes in thermal extremes in Poland
Graczyk D., Kundzewicz Z. W.
Acta Geophysica
|
2014
|
Vol. 62, no. 6
1435--1449
EN
Changes in thermal extremes of the climate of Poland in 1951-2010 are examined. Warm extremes have become more frequent, while cold extremes have become less frequent. In the warming climate of Poland, the increase in the number of extremely warm days in a year and the decrease in the number of extremely cold days in a year have been observed. Also the increase of the maximum number of consecutive hot days in a year and the decrease of the maximum number of consecutive very cold and extremely cold days in a year have been observed. However, the trends are not of ubiquitous statistic significance, as the natural variability is strong.
14
Content available remote Hindcasting global temperature by evolutionary computation
Stanisławska K., Kundzewicz Z. W., Krawiec K.
Acta Geophysica
|
2013
|
Vol. 61, no. 3
732--751
EN
Interpretation of changes of global temperature is important for our understanding of the climate system and for our confidence in projections for the future. Massive efforts have been devoted to improve the accuracy of reproducing the global temperature by the available climate models, but the hindcasts are still inaccurate. Notwithstanding the need to further advance climate models, one may consider data-driven approaches, providing practically useful results in a simpler and faster way. Without assuming any prior knowledge about physics and without imposing a model structure that encapsulates the existing knowledge about the underlying processes, we hindcast global temperature by automatically identified evolutionary computation models. We use 60 years of records of global temperature and climate drivers, with training and testing periods being 1950–1999 and 2000–2009, respectively. This paper demonstrates that the global temperature observed in the past is mimicked with reasonably good accuracy. Evolutionary computation holds promise for modeling the global climate system, which looks hopelessly complex in classical perspective.
15
Content available remote Climatological drivers of changes in flood hazard in Germany
Hattermann F.F., Kundzewicz Z.W., Huang S., Vetter T., Gerstengarbe F.-W., Werner P.
Acta Geophysica
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2013
|
Vol. 61, no. 2
463--477
EN
Since several destructive floods have occurred in Germany in the last decades, it is of considerable interest and relevance (e.g., when undertaking flood defense design) to take a closer look at the climatic factors driving the changes in flood hazard in Germany. Even if there also exist non-climatic factors controlling the flood hazard, the present paper demonstrates that climate change is one main driver responsible for the increasing number of floods. Increasing trends in temperature have been found to be ubiquitous in Germany, with impact on air humidity and changes in (intense) precipitation. Growing trends in flood pronecirculation pattern and heavy precipitation are significant in many regions of Germany over a multi-decade interval and this can be translated into the rise of flood hazard and flood risk.
16
Content available Zmiany klimatu, ich przyczyny i skutki : obserwacje i projekcje
Kundzewicz Z. W.
Landform Analysis
|
2011
|
Vol. 15
39-49
PL
W latach 2010 i 2011 wystąpiło w Polsce kilka miesięcy o temperaturze poniżej średniej z wielolecia. Jednak, w skali globalnej, cały rok 2010 był rekordowo ciepły i zakończył najcieplejsze dziesięciolecie w historii bezpośrednich obserwacji temperatury. Był to 34. kolejny rok o temperaturze globalnej wyższej niż średnia z XX w. Temperatura globalna rośnie od 40 lat, a począwszy od lat 1960. każda dekada była cieplejsza od poprzedniej. Zmiany nie są jednak regularne w czasie i przestrzeni - na zaobserwowany trend wzrostowy nakłada się silna zmienność naturalna. Zmiany klimatu nie są niczym nowym, bowiem w historii Ziemi okresy chłodniejsze wielokrotnie przeplatały się z cieplejszymi. Mechanizmy historycznych zmian klimatu były całkowicie naturalne. Obecnie ziemski klimat ociepla się najprawdopodobniej przede wszystkim z powodu wywołanego przez ludzi wzrostu stężenia atmosferycznego gazów cieplarnianych. Projekcje na przyszłość przewidują dalsze, jeszcze bardziej intensywne, globalne ocieplenie i ta tendencja wydaje się przesądzona co najmniej na kilkadziesiąt lat. W istocie z temperaturą zmieniają się wszystkie elementy sprzężonych systemów klimatu i zasobów wodnych, a w konsekwencji - także wielu systemów fizycznych, biologicznych i ludzkich (społeczno-ekonomicznych). Konsekwencje - zarówno korzystne, jak i negatywne - można dostrzec, i spodziewać się ich w przyszłości, we wszystkich regionach świata oraz we wszystkich sektorach i systemach. Zaistnienie i wielkość konsekwencji zależą od scenariusza rozwoju społeczno-ekonomicznego, który ma wpływ na emisję gazów cieplarnianych, oraz od realizowanej polityki przeciwdziałania zmianom klimatu. Prawdopodobieństwo dotkliwych konsekwencji zmian klimatu rośnie wraz ze wzrostem szybkości i amplitudy zmian. Ocenia się, że przy znaczniejszym ociepleniu straty przeważałyby globalnie nad korzyściami. Skoro działalność człowieka jest odpowiedzialna za większą część obecnego ocieplenia, to poprzez właściwe kształtowanie ludzkiej działalności można próbować ograniczać ocieplenie w dalszej perspektywie. Ponieważ jednak globalny system klimatyczny cechuje się znaczną bezwładnością, więc nie jesteśmy w stanie skutecznie wpływać na klimat najbliższych dziesięcioleci. W efekcie można oczekiwać globalnego ocieplenia rzędu 0,2 stopni Celsjusza na dekadę. Natomiast wielkość ocieplenia w następnych dziesięcioleciach będzie można ograniczyć poprzez skuteczną politykę ochrony klimatu, tzn. redukcję emisji gazów cieplarnianych i zwiększenie ich wiązania, podjęte odpowiednio wcześnie. Bez efektywnej polityki klimatycznej poziom ocieplenia w horyzoncie roku 2100 będzie zapewne znacznie wyższy niż względnie bezpieczny wzrost o 2 stopnie Celsjusza ponad temperaturę z okresu przedprzemysłowego. Człowiek zaadaptował się do już istniejącego klimatu, więc każda zmiana wymaga dostosowania się do nowych warunków i generuje koszty. W Polsce zmiany klimatu niosą szanse - bardziej przyjazną, wyższą temperaturę wody w Bałtyku, a zimą - mniejszą zachorowalność i śmiertelność oraz oszczędność na opale. Są jednak i zagrożenia: wzrost częstości fal upałów, opadów intensywnych, powodzi i osuwisk, ale też suszy w sezonie wegetacyjnym, silnych wiatrów i wzrost poziomu morza. Per saldo, Polska na pewno nie będzie wielkim przegranym w zmieniającym się klimacie, jednak np. problemy z okresowymi deficytami lub niszczącymi nadmiarami wody mogą się nasilić. Trzeba będzie optymalnie "zagospodarować" zmiany korzystne, a skutecznie zaadaptować się do zmian niekorzystnych. Konieczna jest wielka rozwaga i dyplomatyczna zręczność, by wynegocjować w Unii Europejskiej takie warunki zobowiązań dotyczących polskiego wkładu w przeciwdziałanie zmianom klimatu, które nie przyhamują społeczno-gospodarczego rozwoju Polski. Nasz kraj "węglem stoi", więc perspektywa wysokiego opodatkowania emisji dwutlenku węgla i zagrożenie tzw. "wyciekaniem węgla", a w konsekwencji utrata miejsc pracy w Polsce na rzecz krajów, które nie uczestniczą w światowym przeciwdziałaniu zmianom klimatu, mogą być powodem do obaw. Nie może być tak, że dla Polski kuracja jest gorsza od choroby. Nasza wiedza na temat przyszłych warunków jest jednak bardzo ograniczona i obarczona znacznym elementem niepewności.
EN
In the years 2010 i 2011, there have been several months in Poland with temperature below the long-term monthly mean. However, in the global scale, the year 2010 was record-warm and terminated the globally-warmest decade in the history of direct temperature observations. It was the 34-th consecutive year with global temperature exceeding the 20th century average. Global temperature has been growing for 40 years and since 1960s, each decade is warmer than the former one. However, changes are not regular in time and space - there is a strong natural variability superimposed on the growing trend. Climatic changes have occurred many times in the history of the Earth - there were many cooler periods interspersed with warmer periods. However, mechanisms of earlier climatic changes have been totally natural. Presently, it is very likely that the Earth climate warms up primarily due to anthropogenic increase of atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Projections for the future foresee further, and more intense, global warming and this tendency is projected to last for at least several decades. In fact, temperature changes are accompanied with changes of all elements of the coupled systems of climate and water resources, and in consequnce - many physical, biological, and human (socio-economic) systems. Climate change impacts, both advantageous and disadvantageous, can be observed already, and are expected in the future, in all regions, sectors, and systems. They depend on the scenario of socio-economic development that drives the emissions of greenhouse gases, and on the climate change mitigation policy. Probability of severely adverse impacts grows with the level and rate of warming. It is estimated that for a larger warming, negative effects would dominate over positive effects. If human activity is responsible for the most part of the recent warming, we can try to restrict the warming in a longer perspective by changing the human behaviour. However, due to the inertia of the climate system, we cannot influence the climate of the nearest decade or two, so that the warming of 0.2 centigrade per decade is expected. The amplitude of warming in 2050-2100 can be restricted by an effective climate mitigation policy, i.e. reduction of emission of greenhouse gases and increase of carbon sequestration, undertaken sufficiently early. Without effctive climate policy, the global warming in the time horizon of the year 2100 will be much higher than the relatively safe increase by 2 centigrade above the pre-industrial temperature. People have already adapted to the existing climate, hence every change of climate requires adaptation to new conditions and generates costs. In Poland, climate change bring opportunities, such as higher, hence more enjoyable water temperature in the Baltic Sea, and in winter - lower morbidity and mortality, and savings on heating. However, there are also threats: increase of frequency of heat waves, intense precipitation, floods and landslides, but also droughts in vegetation seasons, strong winds, and sea level rise. All in all, Poland will not be a big looser in the changing climate, even if problems with temporary deficits or destructive abundance of water can become more severe. It is necessary to benefit of positive changes and to adapt to negative changes. Prudence and diplomatic skills are needed in negotiations with the European Union. The obligations on the Polish contribution to climate mitigation cannot inacceptable delay the socio-economic development. Our country "sits on coal", hence the perspective of high tax on emission of carbon dioxide and the threat of carbon leakage, and in consequence loss of jobs in Poland to countries that do not partake in the global climate policy can be reasons for concern. It would be inacceptable that in Poland the cure is worse than the disease. However, our knowledge about future conditions is very limited and loaded with a considerable uncertainty.
17
Content available remote Seasonal temperature extremes in Potsdam
Kundzewicz Z.W., Huang S.
Acta Geophysica
|
2010
|
Vol. 58, no. 6
1115-1133
EN
The awareness of global warming is well established and results from the observations made on thousands of stations. This paper complements the large-scale results by examining a long time-series of highquality temperature data from the Secular Meteorological Station in Potsdam, where observation records over the last 117 years, i.e., from January 1893 are available. Tendencies of change in seasonal temperature- related climate extremes are demonstrated. "Cold" extremes have become less frequent and less severe than in the past, while “warm” extremes have become more frequent and more severe. Moreover, the interval of the occurrence of frost has been decreasing, while the interval of the occurrence of hot days has been increasing. However, many changes are not statistically significant, since the variability of temperature indices at the Potsdam station has been very strong.
18
Zmiany klimatu i ich przyczyny
Kundzewicz Z. W., Graczyk D.
Przegląd Komunalny
|
2008
|
nr 11
99-103
PL
Ogłoszony w 2007 r. Czwarty Raport Międzyrządowej Komisji ds. Zmian Klimatu (IPCC) nie pozostawia wątpliwości. W świetle narastającego świadectwa globalne ocieplenie klimatu jest już nie tylko hipotezą, ale coraz lepiej udokumentowanym faktem, a większa część wzrostu globalnej temperatury, zaobserwowanego w ostatnim 50-leciu, jest bardzo prawdopodobnie skutkiem działalności człowieka. Żaden z trzech wcześniejszych raportów IPCC, które publikowane są od 1990 r., nie używał tak mocnej retoryki.
19
Prognozy zmian klimatu i ich skutków
Kundzewicz Z. W., Pińskwar I.
Przegląd Komunalny
|
2008
|
nr 11
103-106
PL
Zaobserwowane zmiany klimatu, a zwłaszcza wzrost temperatury na Ziemi, wywołane są przede wszystkim zwiększeniem stężenia tzw. gazów cieplarnianych w atmosferze, które prowadzi do intensyfikacji efektu cieplarnianego. Wyniki wielu studiów zgodne są co do tego, że przy obecnie prowadzonej polityce i związanym z nią rozwoju gospodarczym atmosferyczne stężenie gazów szklarniowych będzie rosło przez następnych kilka dekad.
20
Intense precipitation and high river flows in Europe - observations and projections
Kundzewicz Z. W.
Acta Geophysica Polonica
|
2005
|
Vol. 53, nr 4
385--400
EN
Several destructive floods have occurred in the last decade in Europe, causing record high material damage. The question of detection and attribution of changes in various flood-related indices attracts increasing interest. Among the mechanisms that can impact flood risk are changes in socio-economic systems, which influence terrestrial systems, and changes in the climatic system. The atmosphere's water holding capacity (and hence potential for intense precipitation) increases with temperature and more intense precipitation has been documented in the warming world. However, a general and coherent increase in high river flows has not been detected. Results of change detection studies of daily river flow in Europe show that the overall maxima (for the 1961-2000 period) occurred more frequently in the subperiod 1981-2000 than in the subperiod 1961-1980. Regional changes in the timing of floods have been reported in many areas of Europe, with increasing incidence of late autumn and winter floods (caused by rain) and fewer spring snowmelt floods. Also, the number of ice-jam related inundations has decreased. On the other hand, intensive and long-lasting summer precipitation episodes have led to disastrous floods in Central Europe (cf. the 1997 Odra/Oder flood, the 2001 Vistula flood, and the most destructive 2002 deluge on the Labe/Elbe), and river flooding has been recently recognized as a major hazard in the region. Significant differences between future projections and the reference period, indicating the likelihood of increasing flood hazard, have been identified in both intense precipitation and high flows.
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