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Reservoir water level forecasting using group method of data handling

Zaji A. H., Bonakdari H., Gharabaghi B.

Acta Geophysica

2018

Vol. 66, no. 4

717--730

Accurately forecasted reservoir water level is among the most vital data for efficient reservoir structure design and management. In this study, the group method of data handling is combined with the minimum description length method to develop a very practical and functional model for predicting reservoir water levels. The models’ performance is evaluated using two groups of input combinations based on recent days and recent weeks. Four different input combinations are considered in total. The data collected from Chahnimeh#1 Reservoir in eastern Iran are used for model training and validation. To assess the models’ applicability in practical situations, the models are made to predict a non-observed dataset for the nearby Chahnimeh#4 Reservoir. According to the results, input combinations (L, L-1) and (L, L-1, L-12) for recent days with root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of 0.3478 and 0.3767, respectively, outperform input combinations (L, L-7) and (L, L-7, L-14) for recent weeks with RMSE of 0.3866 and 0.4378, respectively, with the dataset from https://www. typingclub.com/st. Accordingly, (L, L-1) is selected as the best input combination for making 7-day ahead predictions of reservoir water levels.