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1 2003

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Probabilistic methods for estimating the long-term spatial characteristics of monogenetic volcanoes in Japan

Martin A., Takahashi M., Umeda K., Yusa Y.

Acta Geophysica Polonica

2003

Vol. 51, nr 3

271-289

The long-term future spatial distribution of monogenetic volcanoes is much more difficult to estimate than for polygenetic volcanoes because the location of the next eruption forming a new edifice is different. Current knowledge of the complex geological factors and natural processes controlling the locations of monogenetic volcanoes is insufficient to estimate future spatial and temporal patterns. This has been achieved instead through the development and application of the probabilistic and statistical approach, especially during the last two decades. In Japan, a lot research has been focused on the construction of volcanic hazard maps in the event of a volcanic eruption for natural disaster management - the consequences of volcanism - but not the probability of new volcanic edifices forming within or nearby volcanic fields for geological disposal. In this paper, the development of the probabilistic approach is described and the results of probabilistic case studies on the Higashi-Izu (59 vents) and the Kannabe -Oginosen (38 vents) Monogenetic Volcano Groups In Japan are reported using: (1) a spatial model; and (2) a spatio-temporal nearest-neighbor model. The accuracy of each model is also examined.