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1

Regional Variations of the ω-upper Bound Magnitude of GIII Distribution in the Iranian Plateau

Mohammadi H., Bayrak Y.

Acta Geophysica

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2016

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Vol. 64, no. 4

1004--1033

EN

The Iranian Plateau does not appear to be a single crustal block, but an assemblage of zones comprising the Alborz–Azerbaijan, Zagros, Kopeh–Dagh, Makran, and Central and East Iran. The Gumbel’s III asymptotic distribution method (GIII) and maximum magnitude expected by Kijko–Sellevoll method is applied in order to check the potentiality of the each seismogenic zone in the Iranian Plateau for the future occurrence of maximum magnitude (Mmax). For this purpose, a homogeneous and complete seismicity database of the instrumental period during 1900- 2012 is used in 29 seismogenic zones of the examined region. The spatial mapping of hazard parameters (upper bound magnitude (ω), most probable earthquake magnitude in next 100 years (M100) and maximum magnitude expected by maximum magnitude estimated by Kijko–Sellevoll method ( max K S M − ) reveals that Central and East Iran, Alborz and Azerbaijan, Kopeh–Dagh and SE Zagros are a dangerous place for the next occurrence of a large earthquake.

2

Analysis of Largest Earthquakes in Turkey and its vicinity by application of the gumbel III distribution

Tsapanos T., Bayrak Y., Cinar H., Koravos G., Bayrak E., Kalogirou E., Tsapanou A., Vougiouka G.

Acta Geophysica

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2014

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Vol. 62, no. 1

59--82

EN

A study of the spatial distribution of seismicity parameters is undertaken along Turkey and its vicinity, using the Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution of extreme values (GIII). The data set used spans of 111 years (1900-2010). The seismicity of the whole region is subdivided into equal area mesh of 1° lat. × 1° long. Various seismicity parameters examined, resulted from the application of the GIII method. The results show a quite good correlation between the seismicity parameters and the tectonic regime of the studied area. For instance high values concentrated around North Anatolian Fault. The x2-test is applied throughout the whole process and in every stage of GIII, in order to check the accuracy of the obtained results. The spatial distribution of upper-bound (ω) formed a W-shape pattern, which shows the difference in the mechanical structure of the materials in the examined area.A study of the spatial distribution of seismicity parameters is undertaken along Turkey and its vicinity, using the Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution of extreme values (GIII). The data set used spans of 111 years (1900-2010). The seismicity of the whole region is subdivided into equal area mesh of 1° lat. × 1° long. Various seismicity parameters examined, resulted from the application of the GIII method. The results show a quite good correlation between the seismicity parameters and the tectonic regime of the studied area. For instance high values concentrated around North Anatolian Fault. The x2-test is applied throughout the whole process and in every stage of GIII, in order to check the accuracy of the obtained results. The spatial distribution of upper-bound (ω) formed a W-shape pattern, which shows the difference in the mechanical structure of the materials in the examined area.

3

Spatial variations of precursory seismic quiescence observed in recent years in the eastern part of Turkey

Öztürk S., Bayrak Y.

Acta Geophysica

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2012

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Vol. 60, no. 1

92-118

EN

A statistical analysis is made for the eastern part of Turkey in the beginning of 2009 by studying the phenomenon of seismic quiescence as a potential precursor of the main shocks. The results produced four areas having seismic quiescence in the beginning of 2009. These areas are observed to be centered at 39.96°N–40.69 °E (around Aşkale, Erzurum), 39.36°N–39.74°E (around Ovac?k, Tunceli), 39.02°N–40.52°E (including Elaz?g( and Bingöl), and 38.45°N–42.94 °E (Van Lake). Based on the recent results showing 5 ±1.5 years quiescence before the occurrence of an earthquake in this region, the future earthquake would be expected between 2009.5 and 2010.5. The future earthquake occurrence may reach 2012 if we consider the standard deviation of average seismic quiescence as ±1.5 years. We have found that the M W = 6.0 Elazig (earthquake on 8 March 2010, followed a seismic quiescence starting about 5 years before the main shock. Thus, special interest should be given to the other regions where the seismic quiescence is observed.