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The impact of stochastic lead times on the bullwhip effect – an empirical insight

Nielsen P., Michna Z.

Management and Production Engineering Review

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2018

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Vol. 9, No. 1

65--70

EN

In this article, we review the research state of the bullwhip effect in supply chains with stochastic lead times. We analyze problems arising in a supply chain when lead times are not deterministic. Using real data from a supply chain, we confirm that lead times are stochastic and can be modeled by a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables. This underlines the need to further study supply chains with stochastic lead times and model the behavior of such chains.

2

Lead times - their behavior and the impact on planning and control in supply chains

Nielsen P., Michna Z., Sørensen B. B., Dung N. D. A.

Management and Production Engineering Review

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2017

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Vol. 8, No. 2

30--40

EN

Lead times and their nature have received limited interest in literature despite their large impact on the performance and the management of supply chains. This paper presents a method and a case implementation of the same, to establish the behavior of real lead times in supply chains. The paper explores the behavior of lead times and illustrates how in one particular case they can and should be considered to be independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). The conclusion is also that the stochastic nature of the lead times contributes more to lead time demand variance than demand variance.

3

Order quantity distributions: estimating an adequate aggregation horizon

Eriksen P. S., Nielsen P.

Management and Production Engineering Review

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2016

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Vol. 7, No. 3

39--48

EN

In this paper an investigation into the demand, faced by a company in the form of customer orders, is performed both from an explorative numerical and analytical perspective. The aim of the research is to establish the behavior of customer orders in first-come-first-serve (FCFS) systems and the impact of order quantity variation on the planning environment. A discussion of assumptions regarding demand from various planning and control perspectives underlines that most planning methods are based on the assumption that demand in the form of customer orders are independently identically distributed and stem from symmetrical distributions. To investigate and illustrate the need to aggregate demand to live up to these assumptions, a simple methodological framework to investigate the validity of the assumptions and for analyzing the behavior of orders is developed. The paper also presents an analytical approach to identify the aggregation horizon needed to achieve a stable demand. Furthermore, a case study application of the presented framework is presented and concluded on.

4

A performance evaluation system for agricultural services in agricultural supply chain

Zangeneh M., Nielsen P., Akram A., Keyhani A.

Management and Production Engineering Review

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2014

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Vol. 5, No. 3

70--80

EN

The aim of this paper is comparing all possible scenarios to improve the performance of agricultural supply chain (ASC). For this purpose, at first all scenarios is discussed and the main constraints, i.e. available budget and time, is considered. In this study the drivers to improve the performance of ASC is select and distribute the best agricultural service packages in the target ASC. All discussed scenarios need a selection procedure. So a multilevel approach is developed to select the best service package for each scenario. All selection methods are based on performance measurement which had been selected in first level of the approach. Fuzzy decision making and Analytic Hierarchy Process have been used for the approach. A numerical example is solved at the end of the paper to show the capability of the approach and comparing the scenarios.