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Monte-Carlo method for assessing and predicting the reliability of thermal power plant equipment

Sultanov Makhsud Mansurovich, Griga Stepan Anatolyevich, Ivanitckii Maksim Sergeevich, Konstantinov Anatoly Alekseevich

Archives of Thermodynamics

2021

Vol. 42, no 4

87--102

This paper presents the results of developing a methodology for assessing and predicting the technical condition of boiler plants and steam turbines. The proposed method is based on generalized experimental data on failures to predict the damage of the principal elements and components of thermal power plants by Monte-Carlo simulation. The proposed method considers the complexity of technological processes, turnaround time, failure rate, and condition of the residual metal life. It allows developing approaches to assessing each element’s safety to obtain a reliable and representative sample of failure statistics to reliability assessment of boilers and steam turbines of thermal power plants. According to the results, the probability of failure operation of steam boilers and turbines is 0.037 in the 100 MW conditions. The obtained results can be used to create predictive models that provide approaches to prolonging the operational state of elements of boiler plants and steam turbines of thermal power plants. It can be used in the implementation of projects of digital energy systems for monitoring and diagnostics of the main power equipment of thermal power plants.