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Forecasting and designing in security – practical aspects (part II)

Jurczak Justyna

Zeszyty Naukowe SGSP / Szkoła Główna Służby Pożarniczej

2025

Nr 94 (tom 2)

23--43

The article complements the theoretical aspects of forecasting and designing in security, which was published in “Zeszyty Naukowe SGSP” (“Scientific Reports of the Fire University”) no. 92(2)/2024. The main aim of the second part of the article was to demonstrate the usefulness of designing as a research procedure complementary to forecasting in the process of formulating full-scale security policy objectives in a turbulent state security environment. The optimum level of state technological security in relation to the megatrend such as universal access to modern technology was identified as the subject of the study. The first part of the study was a state strategic analysis - identifying the underlying categories such as threats and opportunities, strengths and weaknesses, extrapolating, reducing them, and grouping for the identification of national interests. Both qualitative (expert method) and quantitative (cluster analysis - k-means algorithm) methods were used for this purpose. The results obtained in the analysis process were then used in the second part of the study – the previously identified categories constituted a reference to the vision of the state and the projected conditions of its functioning using the method of idealization and gradual concretization. As a result, it has been possible to modify the wording of the security policy objective to its full-scale form – adequately to the current needs of the state and the complex and dynamic changes in its security environment.

Forecasting and designing in security – theoretical aspects (Part I)

Jurczak Justyna

Zeszyty Naukowe SGSP / Szkoła Główna Służby Pożarniczej

2024

Nr 92 (tom 2)

107--119

Processes coming from outside the realm of cognition have a significant and critical impact on the functioning of the state in the turbulent security environment of the 21st century. Consequently, the main aim of the article was to demonstrate in theory the usefulness of forecasting and designing as complementary research procedures in the process of strategic analysis in the field of security in a changeable, highly complex and unpredictable state environment. The author’s intent is also to outline the concept of using designing as a strategic analysis tool in practice in another article. When it comes to state security, the fundamental feature of strategic planning is that through building strategic plans the future can and should be shaped in a rational and orderly manner. When designing in the field of security, the methodology developed by Wojciech Gasparski both with the model IV of the idealising theory of science described by Leszek Nowak can be applied.