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Impact of rainfall variability on cereal yield in the Fez-Meknes region (Morocco)

Belmahi Mohamed, Hanchane Mohamed, Benbaqqal Hicham, Kabach Mohammed, Zouhri Driss, Kessabi Ridouane, Elkhazzan Bouchta, Zriouli Khalid

Ecological Engineering & Environmental Technology

2025

Vol. 26, iss. 2

109--121

The Fez-Meknes region is distinguished by its agricultural vocation and its emergence as a hub in the agro-food industry. This study aims to assess the main crop yield, production, and percentage of the agricultural area within each province of the Fez-Meknes region from 2000 to 2020, based on an analysis of descriptive statistics and cartography data. The objective is to determine the national ranking of autumn cereals within the region. Then, multiple linear regression between precipitation and cereal yield in the region’s provinces was established, and the trend in sown areas and cereal yield was analysed using the Man Kendall test. The results revealed that the area sown to autumn cereals accounted for 15% of the national cereal area. Despite that, regional cereal production is ranked second nationally after the Casablanca-Settat region, with a small difference that does not exceed 1.5%. Regarding regional provinces, Taounate and Taza account for almost half of the region’s cereal production. The correlation coefficient between monthly precipitation and cereal yield ranged from 0.51 in Boulmane province to 0.84 in Fez and Moulay Yaacoub province. The coefficient of determination ranged from 0.21 in Boulmane province to 0.70 in Fez province. On the other hand, precipitation in November, December, January, and March had the greatest impact on cereal yields. The differences between observed and estimated yields using multiple regression are acceptable in all region’s provinces, especially when only one predictor was retained. Finally, the Man-Kendall test indicates that the area sown to autumn cereals has a slight downward trend of 4965 ha/year, with a significance of α = 0.07. However, cereal yield also tends to increase by 0.34 q/year with a p- value α = 0.12.

Monthly and Annual Precipitation in Arid Environment of the Daoura Watershed (South-Eastern Morocco) – Homogenization and Trend Analysis

Chanyour Yassine, El Achari Ouafaa, Hanchane Mohamed, Obda Khalid, Kessabi Ridouane

Ecological Engineering & Environmental Technology

2024

Vol. 25, iss. 4

125--142

The high variability of the sub-desert climate, especially in the south-eastern region of Morocco, has severe socio-economic impacts on the inhabitant’s way of life, as is the case in the Daoura watershed, where this variability is associated with droughts or exceptional rainfall. The data collected from the Guir-Ziz-Rheriss hydraulic agency were processed, corrected and analyzed using the Climatol package (version 4.0.0) developed in R software to homogenize rainfall data. Through this work, the significance and amplitudes of annual and monthly rainfall trends were defined using the Mann-Kendall test and Sens’s slope estimator, while comparing the results of raw and homogenized data. The Daoura watershed has a sub-desert climate, and the homogenization process revealed a few rainfall stations with significant positive trends at confidence levels ranging from 90% to 95%. According to the raw and homogenized data, the majority of these stations are located in the High Atlas (CR1) and Anti-Atlasic (CR2) zones, where there is considerable spatiotemporal variability in rainfall from one year to the next. The essential objective of this scientific paper was to analyze the spatiotemporal variability of monthly and annual precipitation and to study their trends through rainfall data homogenized by the climatol package (version 4.0.0) from 13 stations over a period (1957–2018). The contribution of this study to science is the rainfall data it offers, which is useful for managing natural resources in sub-desert areas.