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Development of a neural statistical model for the prediction of relative humidity levels in the region of Rabat-Kenitra, North West Morocco

El Azhari Kaoutar, Abdallaoui Badreddine, Dehbi Ali, Abdalloui Abdelaziz, Zineddine Hamid

Journal of Water and Land Development

2022

no. 54

13--20

This article accounts for the development of a powerful artificial neural network (ANN) model, designed for the prediction of relative humidity levels, using other meteorological parameters such as the maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and intensity of solar radiation in the Rabat-Kenitra region (a coastal area where relative humidity is a real concern). The model was applied to a database containing a daily history of five meteorological parameters collected by nine stations covering this region from 1979 to mid-2014. It has been demonstrated that the best performing three-layer (input, hidden, and output) ANN mathematical model for the prediction of relative humidity in this region is the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) model. This neural model using the Levenberg-Marquard algorithm, with an architecture of [5-11-1] and the transfer functions Tansig in the hidden layer and Purelin in the output layer, was able to estimate relative humidity values that were very close to those observed. This was affirmed by a low mean squared error (MSE) and a high correlation coefficient (R), compared to the statistical indicators relating to the other models developed as part of this study.