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Forecasting GDP growth rate in Ukraine with alternative models

Karayuz I, Bidyuk P.

Applied Computer Science

2015

Vol. 11, no 3

88--97

The problem of constructing mathematical model for short-term fore-casting of GDP is considered. First, extended autoregression is constru-cted that takes two additional independent variables into consideration. The model resulted provides a possibility for generating short-term forecasts of GDP though not of high quality. Another model was constructed in the form of a Bayesian network. The model turned out to be better than the multiple regression, it provides quite good estimates for probabilities of GDP growth direction.