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1
Content available remote Złożone zmienne niezależne w modelach pogoda - plon
EN
The relationships between the yield and meteorological elements have been stated by the use of multiple regression model selection. Winter wheat yield was taken as dependent variable and three groups of meteorological elements were taken as independent variables. Simple meteorological elements belong to the first group of independent variables; their nonlinear combinations (square, square root) belong to the second group. The third group has included complex elements they are functions basing on the relationships between plant growing and environmental conditions among others meteorological conditions. Stations Sulejów has been the source of longterm meteorological, phonological and winter wheat yield data. The station is situated in central part of Poland and winter wheat is grown on medium type of soil. The regression equations including both simple meteorological elements, their nonlinear combinations and complex variables achieves the best statistical characteristics than the equations including simple elements only.
PL
Od 1959 do 2000 r. otoczenie stacji meteorologicznej Zakładu Meteorologii i Klimatologii SGGW ulegało przemianom. Do końca lat 60. XX w. był to obszar typowo rolniczy. Na skutek budowy i rozbudowy Uczelni oraz budowy dzielnicy mieszkaniowej Warszawa-Ursynów, w latach 70. i 80. stacja ta, bez zmiany swojej lokalizacji, stała się punktem pomiarowym położonym na terenie miasteczka uniwersyteckiego SGGW w obrębie dużej dzielnicy mieszkaniowej. Oryginalne wieloletnie dane meteorologiczne pochodzące z okresu 1960-2000 umożliwiają analizę lokalnych zmian klimatycznych. Analizie poddano zmiany średniej temperatury powietrza, temperatur ekstremalnych, wilgotności powietrza oraz opadów atmosferycznych. Na podstawie charakteru stwierdzonych zmian elementów meteorologicznych, a także porównania wartości tych elementów z badanej stacji z wartościami ze stacji Warszawa-Okęcie można stwierdzić, że zmiany te są spowodowane przez rozwój urbanizacyjny otoczenia stacji Ursynów SGGW.
EN
The paper presents a study on climate changes in the local scale of Warsaw district Ursynów in the period 1960-2000. Original long-term meteorological records were used as material for the analysis. Meteorological station Ursynów was situated in the south of Warsaw in a place being now inside the University campus. During the period 1960-2000 the nearest surrounding of the station changed from typical rural area to the large city suburb as a result of housing estate and University campus development. The paper presents results of time series analysis of main meteorological elements: mean air temperature, extreme temperatures, humidity and precipitation. Long-term average values of considered meteorological elements changed and the character of changes indicates that surrounding area's development affected local climate.
EN
The aim of the paper is to analyze relationship between winter wheat yield and selected indexes of precipitation and soil moisture conditions and consequently the attempt of estimation optimum precipitation condidons for the yield. Six meteorological stations and related to them phonological stations have been the source of long-term meteorological, phenological and winter wheat yield data.The stations are situated in three different climatic regions and winter wheat has been grown on diffetent types of soil. The relationships between the yield and meteorological elements have been stated by the use of multiple regression model selection. Winter wheat yield was taken as dependent variable and meteorological elements of air temperature, humidity, soil moisture and precipitation and time distribution of precipitation were taken as independent variables. The relationship equations between winter wheat yield and meteorological elements are strong and adjusted determination coefficients are in the range 69.5-81.9%. Precipitation anterior index, average amount of precipitation indexes and transformation of precipitation amounts (squared and square root) used as variables in the regression equations improve the correlation coefficients of these equations in comparison the equations including only simple meteorological elements.
EN
It was found that the development of Ursynów in 1980-2000 as well as University campus in the period 2000-2004 showed occurence gradually increase amount of precipitation at Ursynów station SGGW - in comporison with Okęcie (airport). Increase in precipitation trends upwards about 60% of total annual precipitation and it is less than whole recives in literature (a dozen percentage). It may be caused that Warsaw Ursynów district (140 thousands inhabitants) is situated on the outskirts of aglomeration of Warsaw.
5
Content available remote Influence of housing estate development on local climate
EN
The paper presents a study on climate changes in local scale of the Warsaw district Ursynów in the period 1960-2000. Original long-term meteorological measurements were used as a research material in the analysis. Meteorological station Ursynów is situated in the south of Warsaw in the place at present being inside the University campus. During the period 1960-2000 the nearest surrounding of the station changed from typical rural area to the large city suburb as a result of housing estate and University campus development. The paper presents results of time series analysis of main meteorological elements: mean air temperature, extreme temperatures, humidity and precipitation. Long-term average values of these meteorological elements changed and the type of changes indicates the effect of surrounding area's development on local climate.
PL
Od 1959 do 2000 r. otoczenie stacji meteorologicznej Zakładu Meteorologii i Klimatologii SGGW ulegało przemianom. Do końca lat 60. XX w. był to obszar typowo rolniczy. Na skutek budowy i rozbudowy Uczelni oraz budowy dzielnicy mieszkaniowej Warszawa Ursynów, w latach 70. i 80. stacja ta, bez zmiany swojej lokalizacji stała się punktem pomiarowym położonym na terenie miasteczka uniwersyteckiego SGGW w obrębie dużej dzielnicy mieszkaniowej. Oryginalne wieloletnie dane meteorologiczne pochodzące z okresu 1960-2000 umożliwiają analizę lokalnych zmian klimatycznych. Analizie poddano zmiany średniej temperatury powietrza, temperatur ekstremalnych, wilgotności powietrza oraz opadów atmosferycznych. Na podstawie charakteru stwierdzonych zmian elementów meteorologicznych, także porównania wartości z badanej stacji z wartościami ze stacji Warszawa Okęcie, można stwierdzić, że zmiany te są spowodowane przez rozwój urbanizacyjny otoczenia stacji Ursynów SGGW.
EN
Within the paper the analysis of surface run off in the specific area of urban catchment is presented. The measurement data are coming from seven meteorological stations from Vanvouver region close to the Fraser River mouth in British Columbia, Canada. It was showed that the largest influence of precipitatio non surface run off is in winter respectively in December and January, whereas in other month during a year the most important factor for surface run off is rather the catchment imperviousness and a type of land development than precipitation. The inspiration of the research conducted by the authors later presented in the paper was their stay at the University of British Columbia in Canada within the Decaban scholarship scheme.
EN
The aim of the paper is to compare two methods of estimation main meteorological elements annual course - polynomial function and Fourier function. Long-term mean monthly data of Ursynów Warsaw Agricultural University meteorological station was used in the analysis: air temperature, maximum and minimum air temperature, amplitude of the temperature, vapor pressure, saturation deficit and relative humidity. Very high values of squared correlation coefficients calculated for two compared methods indicate that both polynomial form of equation and Fouier function may estimate annual course of air temperature and humidity very good. It is noticed that the coefficients for polynomial equations are slightly better than for Fourier functions, particularly for humidity elements.
8
Content available remote Modele sezonowego przebiegu parowania na stacji meteorologicznej Ursynów SGGW
PL
Jednym z czynników obiegu wody i energii w przyrodzie jest parowanie. Wchodzi ono w skład równań bilansu hydrologicznego i bilansu energetycznego będąc ich jedynym wspólnym składnikiem. Przedmiotem opracowania jest znalezienie funkcji opisującej przebieg wielkości parowania z ewaporometru Piche'a i z ewaporometru Wilda w półroczu ciepłym. Dane o wielkości parowania pochodzą z codziennych obserwacji prowadzonych na stacji meteorologicznej Zakładu Meteorologii i Klimatologii Ursynów SGGW w latach 1980–1999. Założono, że funkcja ma postać wielomianu n-tego stopnia. Stopień tego wielomianu, wyraz wolny oraz współczynniki wyznaczono metodą analizy regresji wielokrotnej krokowej.
EN
Evaporation is one of the most important factors of water and energy circulation in environment. Equations of hydrological balance and energy balance include evaporation, which is the only common component of these equations. Function describing seasonal course of evaporation assumes the polynomial form. Stepwise variable selection of multiple regression analysis (used in this work) enables to analyse many polynomial shapes and to select the Best of them. It also allows to calculate coefficients and statistics of investigated models. These data are presented in table 1 and table 2. Figures 1 and 2 show seasonal courses of evaporation from Piche’s evaporimeter and Wild’s evaporimeter, respectively, in Warsaw-Ursynów from three selected types of days.
EN
The paper presents analysis of influence meteorological elements on winter wheat yield in selected research stations of Polish Lowland: Kościelec, Sulejów and Zybiszów. Warm years and wet years were selected of all long-term data independently and regression equations were worked out for these two types of years. The influence of precipitation distribution during last phenological periods of crop on the yield in wet years and negative influence of high temperature in spring on the yield in warm years were stated as main conclusions.
EN
The study was aimed to compare the suitability of selected statistical methods for estimation of the equations describe seasonal course of evaporation in Ursynów. Three method was considered: harmonical regression, Fourier spectral analysis and polynomial regression. Chart of the functions analysis and correlation coefficients comparision shows the best fitting for polynomial equations.
EN
The paper presents relation between evaporation stated by two different and independent methods: calculated one on the basis of profile meteorological elements measurement and pan evaporation. The relationship between daily amounts of these kind of evaporation strong and for short period (i.e. 30 minute amounts) has two.
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