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Past and future changes in the start, end, and duration of the growing season in Poland

Szyga-Pluta Katarzyna, Tomczyk Arkadiusz Marek, Piniewski Mikołaj, Eini Mohammad Reza

Acta Geophysica

2023

Vol. 71, no. 6

3041--3055

The aim of the study was to determine the direction and rate of the projected changes of the start, end, and duration of the growing season in Poland in two-time horizons: 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. The main part of the paper was preceded by an analysis of changes in the start and end dates and the duration of the growing season in Poland in the period 1966-2020. The growing season in Poland is projected to be the shortest in mountain areas and in the north-eastern regions of Poland, where the date of growing season start is the latest and the date of the growing season end is the earliest. Whereas the longest growing season due to the projected earliest start and latest end dates is expected in the southwestern Poland. In the case of the coast, its late end will be of the greatest importance for its duration as a result of the warming effect of the sea in the autumn–winter period. The most intensive changes are forecasted in the long-term perspective in the case of the scenario regarding a high level of greenhouse gas emissions. The forecasts show that outside mountain areas, the growing season duration will vary from less than 255 days in the northeastern regions to more than 290 days in southwest and western Poland. In the duration of the mountains, the growing season will vary from 180 days on Kasprowy Wierch to 188 days on Śnieżka. This suggests significant changes in agroclimatic conditions in Poland.

Wpływ zmiany klimatu na zasoby wodne Polski

Piniewski Mikołaj, Okruszko Tomasz, Kundzewicz Zbigniew W.

Gospodarka Wodna

2020

Nr 3

19--25

W pracy omówiono projekcje zmiany klimatu na obszarze Polski oraz jej oddziaływania na stan ilościowy zasobów wodnych w dorzeczach Wisły i Odry. Modele klimatyczne przewidują ocieplenie klimatu i wzrost sumy opadów atmosferycznych, zwłaszcza w okresie zimy i wiosny. Do oceny stanu ilościowego zasobów wodnych w horyzontach czasowych 2021-2050 oraz 2071-2100 wykorzystano model hydrologiczny SWAT. W świetle uzyskanych wyników, spodziewany jest wzrost wielkości średniego odpływu rocznego (zwłaszcza w miesiącach zimowych) jak i przepływów wysokich i niskich. Jednocześnie przewidywany jest wzrost zagrożenia suszą glebową. Przedstawione wyniki stanowią istotny wkład do dyskusji nad adaptacją gospodarki wodnej do zmiany klimatu.

The article discusses the climate change forecast for the territory of Poland and its impact on the quantity of water resources in the Vistula and Oder river basins. Climate models predict climate warming and an increase in total precipitation, in particular in the winter and spring seasons. In order to assess the amount of water resources in the years 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, the researchers used the SWAT hydrological model. The results of modelling indicate an increase in the annual average outflow volume (in particular in winter months), as well as in high and low water flows. At the same time, they predict and increased risk of soil drought. The presented results constitute a significant contribution to the debate on water management adaptation to climate change.