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Long-term Changes in the Stability of Agricultural Landscapes in the Areas of Irrigated Agriculture of the Ukraine Steppe Zone

Pichura Vitalii, Potravka Larisa, Domaratskiy Yevhenii, Vdovenko Nataliia, Stratichuk Natalia, Baysha Kira, Pichura Ivan

Journal of Ecological Engineering

2023

Vol. 24, nr 3

188--198

Spatio-temporal assessment of the sustainability of agricultural landscapes over a long period (1892–2020 – 130 years) was carried out on the basis of archival spatial data for the territory of the Dnieper district of the Tauride province and modern data from the State Agency for Water Resources of Ukraine. Taking into account the historical patterns of the development of agriculture on the territory of the Dnieper district and the results of spatial modeling in 1892, territories with low (4.1 thousand hectares – 0.3% of the total area) and medium (310.3 thousand hectares – 23.8%) level of sustainability of agricultural landscapes, which are located in the lower reaches of the Dnieper, were identified. However, the large-scale development of the territory for agricultural land and the development of irrigated agriculture have led to the activation of land degradation processes, soil fertility and the deterioration of the stability of agricultural landscapes over large areas. As a result of spatial modeling, the state for 2020 in the irrigation zone recorded significant areas of agricultural land and adjacent territories with low (179.1 thousand hectares – 13.7% of the total area) and medium (419.0 thousand hectares – 32.1%) stability level. A comparative analysis of the stability of agrolandscapes for two time periods (1892 and 2020) showed that large-scale agricultural land development and an imbalanced land-use culture lead to constant and almost irreversible processes of reducing the stability of agrolandscapes in the areas of irrigation reclamation.

Changes in Climate and Bioclimatic Potential in the Steppe Zone of Ukraine

Pichura Vitalii, Potravka Larisa, Vdovenko Nataliia, Biloshkurenko Oleksandra, Stratichuk Natalia, Baysha Kira

Journal of Ecological Engineering

2022

Vol. 23, nr 12

189--202

To increase the level of management efficiency in the agricultural sector of the economy, it is necessary to substantiate environmental protection measures for the restoration and rational use of natural resources, to ensure the implementation of the sustainable environmental management principles, considering the spatio-temporal patterns of changes in climate and bioclimatic potential of the territory. Using the methods of multivariate statistics and time series forecasting, regularities of changes in climatic conditions in the Steppe zone of Ukraine for 1945–2019 were established, and a forecast of changes in the bioclimatic potential of the region until 2030 was made. It was established that during the research period the average annual air temperature increased by 3.5 °C. The amount of annual atmospheric precipitation varied within 186–778 mm with a variation level of 27.2%, in the last 20 years it was determined to decrease by 40% – to 500–300 mm. It has been proven that the inertial probability of repeating hot years is estimated at 0.58, and the possibility of repeating wet years at 0.46. As a result of forecasting, it was determined that if the trend of climatic conditions is maintained, there will be a stable trend-cyclic increase in the average annual air temperature by 0.06 °C per year and a decrease in the amount of annual precipitation by 62.0 mm per year. This resulted in an 18.7% increase in solar radiation on the soil surface and a 26.0% decrease in climatic losses on soil formation, which reduced the rate of the natural ability to reproduce soil fertility. In particular, the bioproductivity of plants decreased by 62.0%, and the probability of its further decrease by 20% is predicted. Over the past 20 years, the coefficient of natural humidification has decreased by 66.4%, and it is predicted to decrease by 20%. The obtained results confirm significant climatic changes and their negative manifestations on the reduction of bioclimatic potential in the Steppe zone of Ukraine, the deterioration of agricultural production conditions, the reduction of harvests, the self-regenerating and self-regulating function of steppe soils.