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2 2021

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Monte-Carlo method for assessing and predicting the reliability of thermal power plant equipment

Sultanov Makhsud Mansurovich, Griga Stepan Anatolyevich, Ivanitckii Maksim Sergeevich, Konstantinov Anatoly Alekseevich

Archives of Thermodynamics

2021

Vol. 42, no 4

87--102

This paper presents the results of developing a methodology for assessing and predicting the technical condition of boiler plants and steam turbines. The proposed method is based on generalized experimental data on failures to predict the damage of the principal elements and components of thermal power plants by Monte-Carlo simulation. The proposed method considers the complexity of technological processes, turnaround time, failure rate, and condition of the residual metal life. It allows developing approaches to assessing each element’s safety to obtain a reliable and representative sample of failure statistics to reliability assessment of boilers and steam turbines of thermal power plants. According to the results, the probability of failure operation of steam boilers and turbines is 0.037 in the 100 MW conditions. The obtained results can be used to create predictive models that provide approaches to prolonging the operational state of elements of boiler plants and steam turbines of thermal power plants. It can be used in the implementation of projects of digital energy systems for monitoring and diagnostics of the main power equipment of thermal power plants.

Digital twins application in control systems for distributed generation of heat and electric energy

Sultanov Makhsud Mansurovich, Arakelyan Edik Koirunovich, Boldyrev Ilia Anatolevich, Lunenko Valentina Sergeevna, Menshikov Pavel Dmitrievich

Archives of Thermodynamics

2021

Vol. 42, no 2

89--101

By the emergence of distributed energy resources, with their associated communication and control complexities, there is a need for an efficient platform that can digest all the incoming data and ensure the reliable operation of the power system, which can be achieved by using digital twins. The paper discusses the advantages of using digital twins in the development of control systems and operation of distributed heat and electric power generation facilities. The possibilities of using the digital doubles for increasing the efficiency of the considered objects is presented as the example of optimizing the configuration of a control system of solar collectors in the presence of heat losses in pipelines of the external circuit. Further, the total balance consumed and generated electric and heat energy are presented. Examples of algorithms for protecting equipment to improve security are given, and the possibilities of improving the reliability of distributed power systems are considered. The system use of the digital twins provides the possibility of developing and debugging control algorithms, which increase the efficiency, reliability and safety of control objects, including distributed thermal and electrical power generation complexes.