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1 Journal of New Technologies in Environmental Science

1 2021

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Forecasting the electricity generation of photovoltaic plants

Kuievda Iuliia, Baliuta Serhii, Zinkevich Petro, Stoliarov Oleksandr

Journal of New Technologies in Environmental Science

2021

Vol. 5, nr 1

40--45

Due to the need in accordance with Ukrainian legislation to submit a day-ahead hourly forecast of electricity generation of solar power plants, the problem of forecasting model quality becomes very important. In the study it is proposed a method of choosing the optimal structure and sensitivity assessment of ANFIS-based forecasting model. In the model the input is solar irradiance, the output is solar panel generation power. The method is based on computational procedures using MATLAB software. For the data set, used in the study, the results, optimal for normalized mean absolute error (NMAE), were achieved on 5 triangular input member functions (trimf), while the error varied within 0.23% depending on number and shape of input member functions. According to the calculations of input error sensitivity of the forecasting model with 5 input trimf membership functions, the increasing of input error up to 8.19% NMAE leads to the raising of the output error in the testing sample up to 5.78%, NMAE. The rather low sensitivity of the model to the input data error allows us to conclude that forecasted meteorological data with a pre-known fixed forecast error can be used as input data.