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1
Content available Data processing for oil spill domain movement models
Dąbrowska Ewa, Dąbrowski Maciej
Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes
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2023
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Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2023
47--57
EN
This chapter reviews various data processing techniques for modelling the movement of oil spills, including data acquisition, quality control, and pre-processing. It highlights the importance of incorporating both physical and environmental factors such as wind, currents, and water temperature, in oil spill trajectory prediction models. It also discusses the challenges associated with data processing, including data availability and uncertainty. It emphasizes the significance of sound data processing practices to ensure effective response planning and mitigation efforts. Finally, by discussing the potential areas of improvement, and model assumptions and limitations, the chapter aims to inspire further research and development in the field, which can lead to constructing more accurate and reliable oil spill movement models.
2
Content available Comprehensive approach to addressing oil spills from critical infrastructure accidents
Dąbrowska Ewa
Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes
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2023
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Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2023
33--46
EN
This chapter presents a general approach to analyzing oil spills, which are frequently caused by critical infrastructure accidents. The definitions of critical infrastructure and complex system are given and the main sectors significant to the safety of industry operations are listed. The chapter underlines the importance of properly maintaining and monitoring shipping critical infrastructure to respond to potential accidents and ensuring the security of the people and goods transported. There are also presented different categories of oil spills, which can help responders to understand the scope of the problem and mitigate the effects of environmental damage if the oil discharges reach sensitive ecosystems or accumulate in large quantities. The application of useful mathematical models is described to support decision-making in oil spill response. The main factors affecting oil spill movement are listed, including the effects of hydro-meteorological conditions on predicting oil spill trajectory. Moreover, the development steps of constructing and verifying a proper probabilistic model for oil spill management are given. The chapter concludes by highlighting the need for further research in this area to improve our understanding of the complexity of the oil spill issue at the considered area
3
Content available Modelling oil spill layer thickness and hydro-meteorological conditions impacts on its domain movement at sea area
Dąbrowska Ewa
Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes
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2022
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Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2022
51--64
EN
The general model of oil spill domain movement forecasting dependent on the thickness of oil spill layer based on a probabilistic approach considering the influence of the hydro-meteorological conditions at sea area is proposed. A semi-Markov model of the process of changing hydro-meteorological conditions is constructed. A two-dimensional stochastic process is used to describe the oil spill domain central point position movement. Parametric equation of oil spill domain central point drift trend curve considering the initial thickness of oil spill layer at the oil spill central point is used. Next, the method of oil spill domain determination dependent on the thickness of oil spill layer for various hydro-meteorological conditions is presented. The generalization of the presented approach assuming that the thickness is changing with time is also proposed. At the end, the research further perspective is given.
4
Content available Short-term forecasting of accidental oil spill movement in harbours
Dąbrowska Ewa
Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes
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2021
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Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2021
59--75
EN
The general model of oil spill movement forecasting based on a probabilistic approach is proposed. A semi-Markov model of the process of changing hydro-meteorological conditions is constructed. The method of oil spill domain determination for various hydro-meteorological conditions is recommended. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulation procedure for predicting the oil spill domain movement is proposed. The procedure is practically applied for Gdynia and Karlskrona ports' water areas.
5
Content available Preliminary general approach to modelling COVID-19 pandemic sufferer safety impacted by human living conditions
Kołowrocki Krzysztof, Bogalecka Magdalena, Dąbrowska Ewa, Torbicki Mateusz, Magryta-Mut Beata, Cichocka Oliwia
Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes
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2021
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Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2021
181--206
EN
The safety and resilience indicators are proposed as crucial tools for analysis, identification, prediction and optimization of COVID-19 pandemic human safety and for minimization and mitigation of pandemic consequences.
6
Content available Identification of climate-weather change processes at Baltic Sea water area impacted on critical infrastructure safety and their accident consequences
Dąbrowska Ewa, Torbicki Mateusz
Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes
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2021
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Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2021
77--116
EN
There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the port oil piping transportation system and maritime ferry operating areas are presented.
7
Content available Safety analysis of car wheel system impacted by operation process
Dąbrowska Ewa
Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes
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2020
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Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2020
61--75
EN
A practically important approach is proposed for the safety analysis of multistate ageing systems that considers the influence of their operation processes on their safety. The system operation process semi-Markov model is introduced and its characteristics are determined. The system safety function is defined and determined for a multistate ageing complex system impacted by its operation process. As a special case, the safety of a series system is modelled using its components’ piecewise exponential safety functions and the results are applied to examine and characterize safety of an exemplary car wheel system.
8
Content available remote Monte Carlo simulation approach to reliability analysis of complex systems
Dąbrowska Ewa
Journal of KONBiN
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2020
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Vol. 50, iss. 1
155--170
EN
The article presents new results concerned with general procedures and algorithms to assess the reliability of complex systems with various reliability structures. The analytical method and based on it the simulation method were used to estimate the reliability characteristics of the port grain transportation system. Finally, the general simulation algorithm was developed to evaluate the reliability characteristics of ageing complex systems. In this case, the systems operating processes were described by any distributions of sojourn times in operation states and the reliability functions of their components were modified in such a way that these components are not characterized by a "lack of memory". The application of this algorithm has been illustrated by the results for exemplary complex two-state systems.
PL
Artykuł przedstawia nowe wyniki w postaci ogólnych procedur i algorytmów symulacyjnych pozwalających oceniać niezawodność złożonych systemów o różnorodnych strukturach niezawodnościowych. Metody analityczna oraz oparta na niej metoda symulacji zostały zastosowane do oszacowania charakterystyk niezawodności portowego systemu transportu zboża. Ponadto zbudowany został ogólny algorytm pozwalający oceniać niezawodność starzejących się systemów złożonych, których procesy eksploatacyjne opisane są dowolnymi rozkładami czasów przebywania w stanach, natomiast dowolne funkcje niezawodności ich elementów są zmodyfikowane w ten sposób, że elementy te nie charakteryzują się „brakiem pamięci”. Zastosowanie tego algorytmu zostało zilustrowane wynikami dla wybranych złożonych systemów dwustanowych.
9
Content available Modelling, identification and prediction of oil spill domains at port and sea water areas
Dąbrowska Ewa, Kołowrocki Krzysztof
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
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2019
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Vol. 10, No. 1
43--58
EN
Methods of oil spill domains determination are reviewed and a new method based on a probabilistic approach to the solution of this problem is recommended. A semi-Markov model of the process of changing hydro-meteorological conditions is constructed. To describe the oil spill domain central point position a two-dimensional stochastic process is used. Parametric equations of oil spill domain central point drift trend curve for different kinds of hydro-meteorological conditions are determined. The general model of oil spill domain determination for various hydro-meteorological conditions is proposed. Moreover, statistical methods of this general model unknown parameters estimation are proposed. These methods are presented in the form of algorithms giving successive steps which should be done to evaluate these unknown model parameters on the base of statistical data coming from experiments performed at the sea. Moreover, approximate expected stochastic prediction and Monte Carlo Simulation in real time prediction of the oil spill domain movement are proposed.
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