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2 TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2 2022

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Multiparameter approximation model of temperature conditions of marine diiesel generator sets, based on Markov chain Monte Carlo

Myrhorod V., Hvozdeva I., Budashko V.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2022

Vol. 16 No. 4

779--784

In the article we propose a multi-parameter approximation model, based on Markov chain Monte Carlo, which describes the relationship between the temperature regime, operating conditions and electromechanical parameters of marine diesel generator sets. The approximation model is constructed on the basis of the analysis of experimental data of the exhaust gases temperature of marine diesel generator sets in their long-term operation. As a statistical model of random processes of temperature deviations from the approximation model, a Markov process model is proposed that takes into account the possible correlation of the initial data. Since the measuring channels of modern diagnostic systems are digital, due to discretization in time and level, the studied processes form a Markov chain, which makes it possible to establish the important features of such processes. The use of approximation models ensures the stationarity conditions and the correctness of the proposed Markov model in the conditions of multi-mode operation of marine diesel generator sets. The proposed multi-parameter approximation model, based on Markov chain Monte Carlo, allows you to take into account random perturbations that lead to a random change in the output coordinates of the diagnostic object. The proposed improvement of the model makes it possible to ensure its adequacy to real processes of changing the parameters of the temperature regimes of marine diesel generator sets. The proposed multi-parameter approximation model, based on Markov chain Monte Carlo, can be used in the systems of technical diagnostics of marine diesel generator sets in order to increase the reliability of diagnostic conclusions.

Diagnosis of the technical condition of high-tech complexes by probabilistic methods

Budashko V., Sandler A., Shevchenko V.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2022

Vol. 16 No. 1

105--111

When designing multilevel systems for monitoring the parameters and characteristics of high-tech complexes, it is necessary to effectively control the state of the elements of generating units. Existing control systems for their specification and technical characteristics do not fully meet the monitoring objectives. The capabilities of existing known systems have limitations on the depth of use and compensation for the impact of operational factors. The article proposes and substantiates the feasibility of using the principle of automated measurement and control of load in high-tech complexes based on the probabilistic approach. It is established that the presence of errors in the means of measurement and control leads to specific errors that should be taken when assessing the quality of control, solving management and control tasks. To register the transition of parameters beyond the limit values, a new sensor circuitry based on fiber-optic elements is proposed. The main difference of the proposed diagnostic tool is the invariance to operational destabilizing factors.