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Comparison of different approaches in traffic forecasting models for the D-200 highway in Turkey

Dogan E., Korkmaz E., Akgungor A. P.

Zeszyty Naukowe. Transport / Politechnika Śląska

2018

z. 99

25--42

Short-term traffic estimations have a significant influence in terms of effectively controlling vehicle traffic. In this study, short-term traffic forecasting models have been developed based on different approaches. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), artificial bee colony (ABC) and differential evolution (DE) algorithms are the techniques used in the optimization of models, which have been developed by using observation data for the D-200 highway in Turkey. 80% of the data were used for training, with the remaining data used for testing. The performances of the models were illustrated with mean absolute errors (MAEs), mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs). It is understood that all the models provided consistent and useful results when the developed models were compared with the statistical results. In the models created separately for two lanes, the R2 values of the models were calculated to be approximately 92% for the right lane, which is generally used by heavy vehicles, and 88% for the left lane, which is used by less traffic. Based on the MAE and RMSE values, the model developed by the ABC algorithm gave the lowest error and showed more effective performance than the other approaches. Thus, the ABC model showed that it is appropriate for use on other highways in Turkey.

Major constructional dispute causes in Turkey

Yildizel S. A., Dogan E., Kaplan G., Ergut A.

Archives of Civil Engineering

2016

Vol. 62, nr 4/II

193--204

The possibility of construction disputes can be reduced, but they cannot be avoided due to the uncertain and risky nature of the building industry. Conflicts between construction parties often have very unfavourable effects, such as cost increases, poor construction quality and time extension in the schedule. Lots of studies have been carried out in order to try and avoid these disagreements. However, there are no common resolution tools or techniques due to the improving conditions and scope of contracted works. Advanced methods and dispute reasons should be fully monitored and updated for the applicable solutions. This paper discusses the current major constructional dispute reasons in Turkey. The questionnaire method was applied within the scope of this study. The questionnaire documents were randomly distributed to 80 contractors to analyse major dispute reasons in Turkey. Analysis of the questionnaire results indicates that the major current dispute causes are poor quality of performed works, delays in progress payments, inefficient site management, poorly written contracts and design mistakes.

Prawdopodobieństwo sporów budowlanych może zostać obniżone, jednakże nie można ich uniknąć, ze względu na niepewną i ryzykowną naturę przemysłu budowlanego. Konflikty pomiędzy stronami inwestycji często mają bardzo niekorzystny wpływ, taki jak wzrost kosztów, słaba jakość konstrukcji oraz wydłużenia czasowe w harmonogramie. W celu uniknięcia tych nieporozumień, przeprowadzono wiele badań. Jednakże, nie ma wspólnych narzędzi lub technik rozwiązywania tych problemów, ze względu na poprawiające się warunki oraz zakres prac budowlanych. Metody zaawansowane oraz powody sporów powinny być w pełni monitorowane i aktualizowane pod kątem stosownych rozwiązań. Niniejsza praca omawia obecne, główne powody sporów budowlanych w Turcji. W zakresie niniejszej pracy zastosowano metodę ankietowania.