Wyniki wyszukiwania - BazTech

Ograniczanie wyników

2 Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

2 Yaméogo Joseph

Znaleziono wyników: 2

Liczba wyników na stronie

Wyniki wyszukiwania

Sortuj według:

Ogranicz wyniki do:

Trends and prediction of extreme precipitation indices in three cities of Burkina Faso using non-parametric statistics and the Holt-Winters smoothing method

Yaméogo Joseph

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

2025

Vol. 13, Iss. 1

74--103

Climate extremes have become increasingly important in recent years, leading to renewed scientific interest. However, few studies have focused on precipitation extremes in cities in Burkina Faso, a Sahelian country in West Africa. The aim of this study is to analyze trends and to project future extreme precipitation indices in three cities in Burkina Faso. To this end, precipitation data, recorded daily, were collected from the National Meteorological Agency of Burkina Faso (NMABF) over the period 1991-2020. The stations selected were Boromo for the small town of Boromo, Saria for the medium-sized town of Koudougou, and BoboDioulasso for the town of Bobo-Dioulasso. The precipitation data were used to calculate the extreme precipitation indices described by ETCCDMI (Expert Team for Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices) using Rclimdex. Descriptive statistics, the Mann-Kendall test, and trends from innovative models were used to analyze the extreme precipitation indices; the Holt-Winters additive model was used to analyze future projections. The study showed considerable variability and a monotonic increasing trend in extreme precipitation indices over the period 1991-2020. However, for the city of Koudougou, the trend was a non-monotonic increase. The forecast based on the Holt-Winters additive model shows considerable variability in the extreme precipitation indices, with an upward trend over the period 2020-2030. On the other hand, in the city of Koudougou, indices of precipitation duration will decrease, indicating that the city will be affected most by the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation.

Changes in the seasonal cycles of extreme temperatures in the Sudano-Sahelian domain in West Africa: a case study from Burkina Faso

Yaméogo Joseph

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

2024

Vol. 12, Iss. 2

33-57

Temperature is a key variable in understanding climate change. In tropical West Africa, however, temperature has been neglected because it is always hot because of the sun. Studying extreme temperatures can be a way to better understand climate change in the Sudano-Sahelian region of West Africa. The main objective of this study is to analyze changes in extreme temperatures. To this end, temperature data were obtained from Power NASA over the period 1981-2022 at monthly time steps. The methods used to analyze the data were normality and homogeneity statistics, linear regression, Mann-Kendall tests, and Spearman’s r test. Tests of Sen’s slope estimator, moving averages, and z-score. The study shows that maximum temperatures are normally distributed, unlike minimum temperatures, and that maximum temperature data are homogeneous, with breaks in the periods 1998, 2000, 2006, and 2010 before, during, and after the rainy seasons. On the other hand, minimum temperature data are generally not homogeneous and do not show many breaks. The study also shows that extreme temperatures tend to increase before, during, and after the rainy season, according to Spearman’s r test. However, the Mann-Kendall test shows that extreme temperatures generally do not show trends. Furthermore, temperatures are continuously variable, with an increase in temperature anomalies in the 1980s, 2000s, and 2020s.