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1

Modelling of fiscal policy effects on agriculture and industry in Ukraine

Shevchuk V., Kopych R.

Information Systems in Management

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2017

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Vol. 6, No. 2

131--142

EN

This paper analyses the effects of fiscal policies upon agriculture and industry in Ukraine, with the SVAR model using quarterly data for the 2001–2016 period. The results indicate a positive effect of the government spending on both agricultural production and industrial output, while an increase in the government revenue is of the same expansionary impact for the latter only. Among other results, there is a weak negative short-lived spillover from agriculture to industry, with no causality running on the reverse. As agricultural production in Ukraine is associated with a higher level of government spending in the short run, a direction of causality seems to be just the opposite for industrial output. Both agriculture and industry bring about higher budget revenues in the short run, but for the latter this effect is lagged and more persistent. Controlling for fiscal policy effects, the nominal (real) exchange rate depreciation seems to be expansionary for industrial output. For agriculture, a nominal exchange rate depreciation is restrictionary in the short run, with an expansionary effect in the long run (however, this result is not supported in specification with the real exchange rate). Several implications of fiscal policy effects are discussed.

2

Modelling of exchange rate effects and complimentaries between agriculture and industry in Ukraine

Shevchuk V.

Information Systems in Management

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2016

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Vol. 5, No. 3

401--412

EN

This paper examines links between the exchange rate, agricultural and industrial outputs in Ukraine. This is estimated using monthly data for the 2001−2015 period. Results provide evidence that there is a positive spillover from agriculture to industry, being in line with modern arguments on the role of agricultural sector in economic growth (infrastructural spillovers, rural income effects, provision of resources for an industrialized economy). However, industrial output squeezes out agricultural production in the short run. Depreciation of the nominal (real) exchange rate has an expansionary effect on industrial output, but it is harmful for agriculture. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that agriculture-supporting policies should be productive in the industrialization context either.

3

Modelling of agricultural import demand in Ukraine

Shevchuk V.

Information Systems in Management

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2014

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Vol. 3, No. 3

201--211

EN

Based on the monthly data from four aggregated agricultural sectors for the 2001−2014 period, this paper investigates the determinants of demand for agricultural imports in Ukraine by using the time-varying parameter technique (the Kalman filter). The outcome suggests that the real exchange rate depreciation contributes to a lower demand for meat, fish and dairy products; vegetable oil and foodstuffs, while not affecting demand for wheat and vegetables. Domestic industrial output correlates with a higher demand for all four groups of agricultural imports. Import substitution effect of domestic agricultural production is found for three out of four groups of agricultural imports, except meat, fish and dairy products. Following an increase in international prices, there is a decrease in demand for wheat and vegetables, as well as for foodstuffs, while there is an opposite effect in demand for other groups, i.e. meat, fish and dairy products and vegetable oil.

4

Modelling of price and income effects on Ukraine’s agricultural export growth

Shevchuk V.

Information Systems in Management

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2013

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Vol. 2, No. 3

214--226

EN

Using monthly data for the 2001─2013 period, this paper applies Error- Correction Model (ECM) to estimate export demand effects for Ukraine’s agricultural commodities and foodstuffs. According to our results, the long-run exchange rate sensitivity of export demand seems to be rather weak, whereas the domestic income effect is high enough across all four groups: (i) meat, fish and dairy products; (ii) wheat and vegetables; (iii) vegetable oil and (iv) foodstuffs. No evidence is found of the long-term relationship between agricultural exports and foreign trade-partner industrial output. However, both exchange rate and foreign output are established to strongly affect the demand for agricultural exports in the short-run. Also, there is evidence of a speedy short-run adjustment for all groups of agricultural exports to their long-run relationships.

5

Educational effects on the labor market in Poland: data analysis and modelling

Żyra J., Shevchuk V.

Information Systems in Management

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2012

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Vol. 1, No. 3

245--257

EN

Although a higher student enrollment in Poland is a pro-growth factor, it is not ruled out that it contributes to a higher unemployment through one of three channels such as: (i) negative productivity effects, (ii) excessive administrative regulations, (iii) educational mismatches. In turn, educational mismatches could be a result of the “wrong” field of study choice, lack of proper competences (skills) or over-education. Our study reveals that the expansion of students on humanities, economics/business and engineering fields of study could be one of the reasons behind higher unemployment rate, but this is not the case for science/mathematics studies. The most important aspects of modeling of labor market educational effects are discussed in the context of the graduates career path monitoring project.

6

Technique of designing of releasable threaded connections of autotractor technics

Kuzmin A., Shevchuk V.

Journal of KONES

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2009

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Vol. 16, No. 1

297-306

EN

The analysis of work of joints of tractors of models DT-YT allows to make the conclusion about presence of breakages because of low constructive strength and not correct definition of parameters of details. Probes of breakages of joints shows that today at designing of joints there is no system of the account of a mode of behavior and joint life cycle. Designing of threaded connections of automobile and tractor technics should be carried out taking into account modes and duration of operation of the car on these modes. Designing of threaded connections is carried out taking into account operation and life cycle modes. It is offered to carry out calculation taking into account accumulation of fatigue damages to a current of set time of operation. For definition of parameters of fatigue strength the technique of the accelerated tests is offered. The technique allows to define parameters of fatigue strength which it is necessary to use in calculations threaded connections. In work probes of a tension of joint of a driving wheel of a Caterpillar, are resulted by a method of the is finitely-element analysis. For probes settlement models are offered and tested. Settlement models allow to simplify construction of geometrical model for use in computer programs and calculations. Using the described technique of designing it is developed construction a retainer screw with a special thread.