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Landslide exposure assessment under environmental change in the Romanian Subcarpathians

Jurchescu Marta, Kucsicsa Gheorghe, Micu Mihai, Sima Mihaela, Bălteanu Dan

Studia Geomorphologica Carpatho-Balcanica

2019/2020

Vol. 53/54

59--84

This study focuses on one of the most complex petrographic and structural relief units in Romania, affected by significant earthquakes and uplift neotectonic movements, i.e. the Subcarpathian region. The Subcarpathians represent a highly fragmented hilly area subject to various mass movements and erosion processes, frequently affecting settlements, transport infrastructure and environmental values. The paper aims to present a landslide exposure assessment conducted for this region, following three main stages which are addressed in the context of present environmental conditions and their possible future changes: landslide susceptibility, landslide hazard and the exposure of elements at risk. It also intends to address and discuss the associated specific contexts, problems and challenges. By integrating selected landslide hazard scenarios, computed under different precipitation and seismic conditions, and key data on elements at risk (i.e. built-up areas, arable lands, permanent crops and major protected areas) into GIS spatial and statistical analyses, potential current and future landslide risk areas are outlined. Results are quantified at the Local Administrative Unit (LAU; towns and communes) level. The output maps reveal significant regional differences in landslide susceptibility and hazard according to the specific predisposing and triggering factors considered, as well as spatial variations in the landslide exposure in relation to specific land-uses and protected areas in the region. The present study contributes to increasing knowledge on landslide susceptibility, hazard, and exposure in the area and provides a ground for further related investigations. In addition, because of its predictive character, this study may constitute a useful tool for policy makers supporting decisions with regard to where future priorities should be focused.